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CDI Library > Johnson's Russia List

Johnson's Russia List
 

 

January 15, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3017  3018   


<x-rich>Johnson's Russia List

#3018

15 January 1999

davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:

1. AFP: Primakov warns Siberian chiefs not let Russia disintegrate.

2. AFP: Primakov rules out IMF prescriptions that hurt Russians.

3. Tomas Valasek: New CDI Film on Oil, Conflicts in the Caspian Sea 

Region.


4. AP: Russia to Sign Food-Aid Pact.

5. Boston Globe: Stephen Kurkjian, Officials of Harvard program that 

aided Russia are probed.


6. Sharyl Cross: Forthcoming Book/Global Security Beyond the
Millennium:


American and Russian Perspectives.

7. Thomas Goltz: CSpan Book Program Jan 17th On Azerbaijan
Diary/Chechen Video.


8. Moscow Times: Leonid Bershidsky, MEDIA WATCH: Another Hungry 

News Year.


9. AP: Y2K Nuke Accidents Called Unlikely.

10. AFP: Despite US concerns, low-tech is Russia's "Y2K" blessing 

in disguise.


11. Marcus Warren: Books update.

12. Jim Vail: Solzhenitsyn's Red Wheel.

13. Reuters: New U.S.-Norway Rocket won't Trigger World Scare.

14. Interfax: Russian Economics Ministry: Inflation Rate To Slow

in 1999.


15. Los Angeles Times: Maura Reynolds, U.S. Quarrel With Russia 

Heats Up.


16. RFE/RL: Jan de Weydenthal, Russia: Ratification Of Treaty With 

Ukraine In Doubt.]



*******


#1

Primakov warns Siberian chiefs not let Russia disintegrate


MOSCOW, Jan 15 (AFP) - Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov urged Siberian
governors Friday to put aside their separatist ambitions and warned them
that he would not allow Russia to split up like the Soviet Union did,
Russian news agencies reported.

Primakov stressed that separatist tendencies, which have burgeoned in
Russia since last year's economic crisis, "must be silenced, eradicated
and destroyed," Interfax reported.

"We lost the Soviet Union," Primakov reminded the 19 governors of
Siberian regions, gathered in the coal-mining city of Kemerovo for a
regional pow-wow. "We will not allow Russia to be lost."

Since becoming prime minister four months ago, Primakov has repeatedly
warned of the dangers of Russia disintegrating. He told parliament as he
was voted in as premier on September 11 that his prime task would be to
stop the country falling apart.

Siberian governors, keen to bypass Moscow in matters of trade and
investment and furious with the centre's repeated failure to distribute
budget dues on time, have made increasingly independent noises of late.

Krasnoyarsk governor Alexander Lebed warned on Wednesday that he would
push for "redistribution of relations between the centre and regions" at
Friday's meeting in Kemerovo.

"The principle of running all things from Moscow is still prevalent in
Russia," Lebed was quoted by ITAR-TASS as saying. "The Federation has
been increasingly shifting more responsibilities to regions without
backing them financially."

Moscow has signalled in recent days that it is ready to keep its side
of the bargain and transfer budget funds promptly. Deputy Finance
Minister Viktor Khristenko said earlier this that January's regional
dole-out would be completed ahead of time.

He added that regions would get an extra 3.5 billion rubles (160
million dollars - eds: correct) this year due to cuts in spending on the
state apparatus, ITAR-TASS reported.

It is not just in Siberia that Moscow has struggled to contain
centrifugal forces. Late last year the southern republic of Kalmykia
indicated that it was tired of paying dues to Moscow and wanted
independence.

Khristenko said that Kalmykia would not get any funds from the federal
budget until it paid its own debts to the centre, which amount to 236
million rubles (10.7 million dollars). 



*******


#2

Primakov rules out IMF prescriptions that hurt Russians


MOSCOW, Jan 15 (AFP) - Premier Yevgeny Primakov on Friday said Russia
hopes to secure new International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans but ruled out
following economic advice that could further hurt the country's
already-tired people.

Primakov said Russian and IMF officials were nearing a compromise that
may soon allow frozen Fund payments to pour into the country and help
balance Moscow's hopelessly lopsided books.

But the Russian premier warned this did not mean that "we will follow
demands which contradict the interests of our government," ITAR-TASS
reported.

"The IMF has gradually come to understand that it must connect its
persistent demands with our own reality," Primakov was cited as saying in
the coal-producing region of Kemerovo, where he is attending a conference
of Siberian governors.

Russian economy chief Yury Maslyukov is currently negotiating with
senior IMF and World Bank officials in Washington over the fate of future
foreign assistance to Russia.

The IMF last autumn froze payments to Russia following the government's
decision effectively to default on its internal debt and devalue the
currency.

The Fund has further criticized Moscow for failing to collect enough
taxes and drafting unrealistic economic proposals that rely on heavy
state assistance to failing Soviet-era industries and partial price
controls.

A senior IMF team is due to arrive to Moscow on January 20 to study the
government's 1999 spending plan which is one of the leanest Russia has
drafted this decade.

However, it assumes nearly nine billion dollars in loan restructuring
and write-offs that have not yet been agreed with foreign creditors.

In Moscow, Russia's World Bank chief Michael Carter said he planned to
hold a meeting with Russian and IMF officials in which all sides could
study how Moscow could restructure its mountain of foreign debt
obligations. 



*******


#3

Date: Fri, 15 Jan 1999 

From: Tomas Valasek <<tvalasek@cdi.org>

Subject: New CDI Film on Oil, Conflicts in the Caspian Sea Region


New Film on Oil, Conflicts in the Caspian Sea Region


The Center for Defense Information announces the release of a
documentary film entitled, "War for Oil in the Former Soviet Union." The
film is a part of the America's Defense Monitor series, now in its
twelfth season. The latest program offers a critical look at the West's
quest for oil in the Caspian Sea basin. It examines the possible export
routes for Caspian oil and their impact on existing conflicts in this
region

The list of experts appearing in the program includes Ambassador
Richard L. Morningstar, Special Advisor to the President and the
Secretary of State on Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy, Ms. Julia Nanay,
Director of the Petroleum Finance Company, Ambassador Robert Hunter, U.S.
Ambassador to NATO (1993-97), Mr. Patrick Clawson, Director for Research
of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Mr. Charles Fairbanks,
Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, and Mr. Paul Goble,
Publisher of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Newsline.

America's Defense Monitor is a weekly television series broadcast on
PBS and cable stations across the United States. The series presents
critical information on the military's impact on the political system,
the economy, the environment, and society as a whole. Other topics
include foreign policy, international affairs, armed intervention, and
nuclear and conventional weapons. Individual episodes of America's
Defense Monitor have received awards in major film competitions. 

FANTASTIC SPECIAL OFFER to JRL recipients: $19 for half-hour VHS tape,
plus free subscription to CDI's publication The Defense Monitor. Contact
CDI for price on overseas PAL version.

[DJ: Video on the American Impact on Russia is also available at same
price.]

Copies of this program are available by calling 1-800-CDI-3334. For
more information, contact:


Tomas Valasek

202-332-0600

tvalasek@cdi.org 


********


#4

Russia to Sign Food-Aid Pact 

January 15, 1999


MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia will sign an agreement with the European Union next
week for $460 million worth of food aid, a news agency reported today. 

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Gennady Kulik will sign the agreement
in Brussels next Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported. 

The aid package would supply 1 million tons of grain and hundreds of
thousands of tons of other foodstuffs intended for the country's poor. 

Russian stores remain well-stocked, but inflation has soared since an
economic crisis hit in August, making some food too expensive for
impoverished Russians. According to official estimates, nearly one-third
of the population is living below the official poverty line of about $30
a month. 

Both the United States and EU officials have been seeking assurances
from the Russian government that the food aid reaches those who need it
most. Previous aid deals have been tainted by charges of corruption. 

The EU aid package was negotiated last month, when Russia also signed a
similar $625 million deal with the United States. Both were intended to
help Russia through the long winter, but no aid shipments are expected
until next month at the earliest. 

In another development, Agriculture Minister Viktor Semyonov said today
that Russia plans to introduce additional controls to keep domestic grain
from being exported, the Interfax news agency reported. 

On top of the economic crisis, Russia this year had its worst grain
harvest in 40 years. Still, domestic grain prices have remained
significantly lower than the world price, which has encouraged those with
grain to export their supplies rather than sell them in Russia. 

Semyonov also voiced concern about this year's harvest, saying the
winter crops were in bad condition and farmers were struggling
economically. 


*******


#5

Boston Globe

15 January 1999

[for personal use only]

Officials of Harvard program that aided Russia are probed 

By Stephen Kurkjian, Globe Staff


Federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal and civil investigation
into whether officials of a Harvard University-sponsored effort to help
Russia reconstruct its economy profited from inside market knowledge,
according to Harvard and US government sources. 

Even as Harvard convenes top US and Russian business and political
leaders this morning for a two-day symposium on Russia's economy and
investments, the university is in the awkward position of answering
questions from federal investigators about the Harvard Institute for
International Development. 

The office of US Attorney Donald K. Stern is conducting the
investigation of the institute officials, who were operating under a US
government grant while they were helping Russia adapt to capitalism. Both
Harvard and US government sources in Washington confirmed the existence
of the investigation. 

Indeed, institute officials who played a key role in Russia's economic
reconstruction, including a distinguished Harvard economist, were not
even invited to speak at a conference that will discuss Russian
investment opportunties and mull over the fruits of their work. 

According to sources familiar with the probe, the investigators are
trying to determine if the principals - renowned Harvard economics
Professor Andrei Shleifer and Jonathan Hay - violated federal law
during the early 1990s. 

In particular, the sources said, the investigators are focusing on
whether Shleifer and Hay profited from investments made by Shleifer's
wife and Hay's girlfriend into Russia's stock market while the institute
was being paid $43 million by the US government to advise Russian
President Boris Yeltsin and his economic chiefs. 

Graham Allison of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, which is
sponsoring the symposium, said yesterday that considering the institute's
major involvement in transforming the Russian economy, it was reasonable
to ask why neither Shleifer nor anyone else from the institute was
participating as a moderator or panel member. 

But, Allison insisted, the reason had nothing to do with the negative
publicity that ensued from disclosures over the alleged conflicts of
interest involving Shleifer and Hay. 

Although Shleifer and Jeffrey Sachs, director of the institute, were
among about 20 Harvard professors with expertise in Russia invited to
attend the symposium, he said neither man has been invited to speak or
moderate because the sessions are focusing on current investment
opportunities and challenges. 

However, another Russian scholar at Harvard said that while Shleifer's
reputation remains intact at Harvard, his appearance as a moderator or
panel member would have raised eyebrows because of the controversy.
''He's hot merchandise right now,'' said the Harvard professor, who asked
not to be named. 

Sachs, who was unaware of the alleged profiteering, has not been
implicated in the scandal. 

The investigators working on the case, including assistant US Attorney
Sarah M. Bloom, have spoken frequently in recent months with lawyers and
other officials at Harvard University and have sought volumes of
documents from the Harvard Institute for International Development about
its work with the Russian government. The institute's rules prohibit its
employees or members of their families from investing in the country they
are advising. 

Stern refused to discuss the investigation yesterday. But its priority
was underscored by a Justice Department letter last June asking the
chairman of the House Committee on International Relations to defer a
review of the institute's activity. Such a review would interfere with a
''pending criminal and civil investigation by the United States
Attorney's Office for the District of Massachusetts,'' according to the
letter to Representative Benjamin A. Gilman, a New York Republican. 

While acknowledging the existence of the investigation, Earl H. Nemser 
of New York, Shleifer's lawyer, said his client was not being targeted in
the probe. ''My understanding is that it does not involve Mr. Shleifer,''
Nemser said Wednesday. Yesterday, Nemser declined to answer further
questions, including whether he represented Shleifer's wife, Nancy
Zimmerman, in the investigation. 

Although they could not be reached this week, Zimmerman, Hay - who is
no longer associated with Harvard - and his girlfriend, Elizabeth Hebert,
have all previously denied they engaged in conflicts of interest by
investing in Russian markets. 

However, an investigation by the US Agency for International
Development, which funded the contract, found that Shleifer and Hay had
''gained influence'' over Russian capital markets they were helping to
set up, and had ''abused the trust of the United States government by
using personal relationships ... for private gain.'' Among the
allegations: Hay invested in Russian government securities while advising
the Yeltsin government on capital markets; and helped Hebert establish a
Russian mutual fund, the first allowed to sell such funds to the Russian
public. 

A second charge, that Hay directed a center he and the institute
established with USAID funds to assist Zimmerman in her Russian
investments, was determined to be unfounded by a World Bank audit. But
the damage was already done: In May 1997, USAID canceled its contract
with the Harvard institute, cutting off the final $14 million installment
of a $57 million grant. 



********


#6

Date: Fri, 15 Jan 1999 

From: Sharyl Cross Associate Professor <<sncross@email.sjsu.edu>

Subject: Forthcoming Book/Global Security Beyond the Millennium:

American and Russian Perspectives


GLOBAL SECURITY BEYOND THE MILLENNIUM

American and Russian Perspectives


EDITED BY SHARYL CROSS, IGOR A. ZEVELEV

VICTOR A. KREMENYUK and VAGAN M. GEVORGIAN


January 1999 272 pp 216x138mm

Hardback £45.00 0-333-68899-6


'An outstanding contribution by American and Russian scholars to our
understanding of pressing contemporary and future security issues. It
will be of great value to professionals and students alike' Dr Michael
M. Boll, Professor of International Security and Russian Studies, George
C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies


'American and Russian specialists together have delivered an original,
balanced and deeply insightful study offered at a time of great
uncertainty in the development of post-Cold War US-Russian relations. 
The contributors move beyond the assumptions and prejudices of the past
to offer a pathbreaking work ...' Dr Nodari Simonia, Head of the World
Economy and International Relations Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences


Global Security Beyond the Millennium offers American and Russian
perspectives on the

evolution of the US-Russian post-Cold War security relationship,
obstacles and opportunities in bilateral cooperation, and critical
security challenges for the two countries on the threshold of the
twenty-first century. American and Russian contributors discuss
prospects for managing a range of issues encompassing both traditional
military aspects of security, as well as in-depth

exploration of the broader non-military dimensions of international
security. The book is designed to challenge readers to think about some
of the most pressing security issues of our time, and the roles and
responsibilities of the United States and Russia in preserving global
stability and peace beyond the millennium.


CONTENTS: Preface - PART I: THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA: TOWARD THE
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY - The United States and Russia: Partnership in the
Next Century?; V.A.Kremenyuk - United States-Russian Security Relations
on the Threshold of the Twenty-first Century; S.Cross - PART II:
OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR US-RUSSIAN MILITARY-SECURITY COOPERATION
AFTER THE COLD WAR - The Politics of US-Russian Military Cooperation in
the Post-Cold War Era; C.P.Danopoulos, A.S.Bukharova, V.M.Gevorgian &
S.A.Baburkin - Information Technology: US-Russian Perspectives and
Potential for Military-Political Cooperation; T.L.Thomas - Proliferation
Challenges and Nonproliferation Opportunities in the Post-Cold War Era;
W.C.Potter - PART IIl: NEW DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST
CENTURY - The Russian Quest for a New Identity: Implications for Security
in Eurasia; I.A.Zevelev - Environmental Security: Challenges for the
United States and Russia; B.Jancar-Webster & V.I.Sokolov - New Directions
in US Security Policy and Mexico After Cold War: Democracy, Trade,
Migrants and Drugs; E.J.Williams - PART IV: POST-COLD WAR REGIONAL
CONFLICT: SOURCES, INTERVENTION AND CONSEQUENCES - America and Regional
Conflict in the Post-Cold/Gulf Era: Some Implications for the Future;
G.T.Hammond - The Balkan Quagmire: Clash of Civilizations?; V.K.Volkov -
PART V: MILITARY STRATEGY AND FUTURE WARS - Visions of the Battlefields
of the Future and America's Response; B.R.Schneider & V.P.Budura Russian
Military Doctrine/Strategy, Future Security Threats and Warfare;
V.V.Larionov - About the Editors and Contributors - Index

SHARYL CROSS is Associate Professor of Political Science at San José
State University. She was recently awarded the Fulbright Scholarship and
will be Visiting Research Scholar and Professor at the Institute of USA
and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 1999.

IGOR A. ZEVELEV is Head Research Associate and former Deputy Director for
the Center for Comparative Studies at the Institute of World Economy and
International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He
is currently Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace.

VICTOR A. KREMENYUK is Deputy Director of the Institute of USA and Canada
Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Professor of Political
Science at the Institute of USA and Canada Studies. 

VAGAN M. GEVORGIAN is Senior Editor of USA: Politics, Economy and
Ideology published by the Institute of USA and Canada Studies of the
Russian Academy of Sciences.


Copies of the book featured are available from your usual bookseller or
direct from Macmillan. 

Fiona Woodruffe-Peacock, Macmillan, Houndmills, Basingstoke, RG21 6XS,
Fax: 01256 330688

Hardcover editions are available in North America from St Martin's Press: 

St Martin's Press, Scholarly & Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New
York, NY 10010 

Tel: (212) 627 5757 Fax: (212) 779 9479


********


#7

From: goltz@superonline.com (Thomas Goltz)

Subject: ANNOUNCEMENT: CSpan Book Program Jan 17th On Azerbaijan
Diary/Chechen Video by T Goltz

Date: Fri, 15 Jan 1999


Dear Friends and Associates,


I have the pleasure of announcing that C-Span BookTv will be airing a
presentation/lecture I gave at the University of Louisville Kentucky as
part of their on-going series about new books and writers. Unless bumped
by the Clinton Trial, the program is skedded to air on Sunday, January
17th at 1:35pm-3:00pm; again at 7:35-9:00pm and yet again at 1:35-3:00am 
EST.

In addition to a basic lecture on the nature of ethnic conflict in the
Post-Soviet space, with a special focus on Azerbaijan--and indeed, a
reading from my Azerbaijan Diary--the lecture also includes a 10 minute
mini-documentary on Chechnya about the aftermath of the war in the town
of Samashki that I shot and produced for the BBC. There is also a lively
question and answer period at the end of the talk/reading/showing.

Please feel free to post this message or forward it to interested
parties; as it happens, I am working on a new computer and have less than
a perfect command of how to store addresses, the ones included in the CC
file above having been culled, by hand, from recent incoming messages.


Best Regards,

Thomas Goltz 

Istanbul, Jan 15th 1999


********


#8

Moscow Times

January 15, 1999 

MEDIA WATCH: Another Hungry News Year 

By Leonid Bershidsky 


Well, better luck this year, is what I am telling myself and the rest
of us

Moscow hacks now that 1998 and the two-week drinking binge that followed
it

are over. 

Last year, more journalists stopped being paid than there were of us in
Moscow

when Gorbachev's perestroika broke out. One daily newspaper, Russky
Telegraf,

closed. Others moved to different printing presses where they could get

credit. I have a feeling many news outlets still exist only because they
are

counting on some manna from heaven in the form of handouts from
campaigning

politicians who will need the media's support for this year's
parliamentary

and next year's presidential elections. 

Kapital, the weekly I edited for most of 1998, shrank to half its
pre-crisis

size. The Mass Media News bulletin said Kapital's main problem was that
it

"was not sure of its market." That is something of an understatement:

Advertisements for job opportunities, which used to supply about half of
the

newspaper's revenues, have all but disappeared because there are no more
job

opportunities in this town. 

At least the foreign press had some fun in Moscow, unlike in 1997. An
economic

collapse always generates good copy. 

Paradoxically, 1999 is likely to be a good year for the Russian media.
Not

financially, because, God knows, the economy can only get worse. But some
of

the anomalies that have plagued the news business here for several years
are

finally going to go away. Here is what I think is going to happen. 

1. Foreign media magnates are finally going to move into this market.
The fact

that Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. and Boris Berezovsky set up a
joint-venture

advertising agency to sell airtime on Russia's biggest TV channel, ORT,
shows

Murdoch is interested in Russia. He is just waiting for the right
opportunity

to come in. I will not be surprised if Murdoch soon acquires one of the

existing daily newspapers here. 

Other foreign publishers are also seriously talking about deals in the
Russian

print media business. Foreign newspapers may write that Russia is the
pits,

but their publishers know an opportunity when they see one. And Russian

oligarchs will no longer be strong enough to keep the foreigners out. 

2. Television stations will give up any hope of being profitable as
businesses

in the next couple of years. They can only stay alive on political money
that

will miraculously appear out of nowhere once the State Duma election
campaign

starts in earnest in about six months' time. That, however, is better in
a way

than having the stations fight economic wars for the business tycoons
who

controlled them until recently. Politicians, for all their sleaziness,
are

more relevant to the average viewer than feuds between Vladimir Potanin
and

Vladimir Gusinsky. 

Sure, business tycoons will be involved in politics, too, but at least
the

voter in the end has a chance to choose a political agenda he likes in
an

election year. When you are supposed to choose as a viewer whom to back
in a

business dispute, your interest can only be purely academic. 

3. There will be fewer stupid, inexcusable forays into the media market
by

people who are not professionals in it and who do not see the reporting
of

news as a business. Putting together an economically functioning magazine
or

newspaper in these days of crisis is doubly difficult and it requires

expertise. No more Russky Telegrafs then, and no more weekly magazines
like

Kompania, which were set up by banks simply as prestigious playthings. 

4. With the weak ruble, there is finally an opportunity for quality
printing

to develop here in Russia. A new magazine printing press is already

functioning in Moscow, and Independent Media, a leader of the glossy
magazine

market, has moved the printing of some of its titles to it. More such
ventures

will almost certainly follow this year. Ultimately, this will make
Russian

weekly news magazines better in terms of the timeliness of their
coverage.

When you print in Finland, your news is at least a week old when your
magazine

comes out. Printing in Russia will make analytical magazines follow 
news

events more closely and cover them more topically. 

5. Journalists will have time to forget about the unrealistically 
high

salaries they used to be paid in the last two years. Work costs as much
as it

costs, and snobbery should no longer be part of a journalist's outlook.
We are

living in lean times, and being a little hungry helps you report the hell
out

of them. 


********


#9

Y2K Nuke Accidents Called Unlikely

By HARRY DUNPHY

January 14, 999


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Russia is behind many Western nations in confronting
the

Year 2000 computer glitch, but Soviet-era computers that control 
nuclear

weapons and reactors are unlikely to cause any accidents, a Russian
expert

said Thursday. 

Andrei Terekov, a St. Petersburg University mathematics professor and
director

of Lanit Holding, a firm helping Russian companies with the transition,
said

the cash-strapped government still had much to do before it was ready for
the

changeover at the end of the year. He estimated it would cost $500
million to

fix critical systems. 

Terekov said, however, there was growing awareness in Russia of
potential

failures in computers in less than 350 days. 

``My understanding is that the problem with strategic weapons has 
been

solved,'' Terekov said, meaning it was unlikely the Y2K problem would
cause

warheads to detonate or missiles to be fired by mistake. But he said
``there

still were problems with infrastructure,'' referring to air defense and
early

warning systems. 

Russia has agreed to allow NATO experts to investigate how the year
2000

computer problem could affect these systems. 

While some experts warn that Russia's nuclear weapons could be
destabilized by

the millennium bug, in which older computers will recognize the
double-zero

date as 1900 rather than 2000, NATO said its primary concern is to avoid
any

malfunctions in Russia's command and control systems. 

Terekov said Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov had ordered key

ministries such as Defense and Atomic Energy to be ready for any Y2K
problems

and would make the necessary money available despite the country's
economic

crisis. 

Terekov spoke at a news conference at the National Press Club called
to

announce a technology transfer agreement between his company and
Relative

Technology Inc. of Cary, N.C. Relativity has developed Russian-language

capable software that can adapt Soviet-era computer applications to
modern

platforms. No price was announced for the accord. 

Terekov's company, Lanit, has received approval from the Russian
Federation

Committee for Communications and Information to establish Year 2000
readiness

centers in several Russian cities. He said he would seek contracts from

companies such as Aeroflot, the country's airline, and the Gazprom oil
and gas

conglomerate. 


*******


#10

Despite US concerns, low-tech is Russia's "Y2K" blessing in disguise


MOSCOW, Jan 15 (AFP) - While the US military fears Moscow is falling
behind in the race to beat the "millennium bug" computer problem, experts
here believe Russia's relatively low-tech status will prove a blessing in
disguise.

Moscow has ignored US and NATO offers to revamp its nuclear missile and
early-warning defence systems ahead of the third millennium, suspicious
of US motives and costing the overhaul at a fraction of US estimates,
they said.

US Deputy Secretary of Defence John Hamre complained Thursday that
Moscow lacked the "same level of urgency" as the Pentagon on the issue,
predicting "they're going to have problems that they don't anticipate
right now."

Scientists warn obsolete computer chips or software could mean that
many systems will fail in 2000 because dates ending in "00" will be
interpreted as the year 1900, triggering potentially crippling errors in
logic.

But whereas the US government is throwing up to 10 billion dollars at
the problem, officials here say they need just 500 million dollars to
prepare for the date change, compared with the 750 million dollars
British Telecom has spent upgrading its systems alone.

"The Russian problem with Y2K is very minor," said Pavel Felgenhauer,
defence specialist with the Russian daily Sevodnya, adding that strategic
rocket forces chief Vladimir Yakovlev last month said solving Y2K would
cost his forces just 10 million rubles.

"That's less than half a million dollars, and it will take precious
little time, effort and money," Felgenhauer said.

Western diplomats here said US Defence Secretary William Cohen has
tried to persuade the Russians to agree to exchange aides in sensitive
defence sites ahead of the change-over, a suggestion that has met with a
cool response from his opposite number Igor Sergeyev.

"The Russian military don't see the benefits of accepting this aid,"
said Felgenhauer, "they believe that this is just a cover operation to
spy on Russian facilities."

Russia's defence community "are not very keen to show the Americans how
backward their nuclear system is because this could undermine the
credibility of the nuclear deterrent," he added.

Some of Russia's large enterprises, banks and airlines appear equally
underwhelmed by the millennium bug issue. Central Bank and Aeroflot
officials were unable to tell AFP what precise measures had been taken.

"No-one in Russia is really that bothered by the problem, even in large
firms," said Mikhail Salnikov, of the Compulog computer magazine. "The
general feeling is that the situation is not as bad as they say and that
there's no point in getting worked up about it."

Computer security expert Sergei Cheremkhin told AFP: "Our clients are
not panicking. The mentality in Russia is not the same as in the West.
Here, we don't know what tomorrow will bring, so the Y2K problem seems
rather distant, or secondary."

Russia's millennium bug chief Alexander Krupnov only launched Russia's
Y2K campaign last July, warning that it could trigger a collapse of
banking, stock markets, telecommunications and energy systems if left
unresolved.

Nevertheless, "nobody can say with any certainty what is going to
happen," said one western official who asked not to be named. But "on the
energy side, what we've become more worried about is progressive collapse
of the electricity grid.

"If that became a problem we still expect the nuclear power stations to
fail-safe, if they fail," said the official.

However, backup power would be needed to keep the reactor core and
nuclear waste cool, he said, noting that diesel generators had failed at
an atomic power station in the northern Kola peninsular.

"I would be quite certain to have my family not in Russia at the end of
the year," he said, adding: "I would rather not be here." 



*******


#11

From: "Marcus Warren" <<markusw@rinet.ru>

Subject: books

Date: Fri, 15 Jan 1999 


<bigger>thank you everyone who responded to the posting about the
books in the telegraph's moscow office - i am sorry that i cannot reply
to you all individually.</bigger> <bigger>i have offloaded them on
stanford university's moscow faculty on the grounds that more people
will have access to them in an academic library than in private hands. 



*******


#12

From: JVAIL900@aol.com (Jim Vail)

Date: Fri, 15 Jan 1999 

Subject: Solzhenitsyn's Red Wheel


I was wondering if anyone subscribed to JRL would know if Alexander

Solzhenitsyn's Red Wheel has been published, and if so, where it can be

obtained. 


*******


#13

New U.S.-Norway Rocket won't Trigger World Scare


OSLO, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Norway promised on Thursday that the imminent

launch of a scientific rocket from northern Norway would not spark a

nuclear alert for Russian President Boris Yeltsin, unlike a previous

incident four years ago. 

A Black Brant XII research rocket, mistaken by neighbouring Russia for
a

possible nuclear missile in January 1995, is due to be fired from the

Andoeya civilian range on Friday morning if weather permits, officals
said. 

"We are confident that we will not have a repeat of what happened back
in

1995 this time," said Knut Hauge, deputy director general at Norway's

Foreign Ministry. 

"Judging from our constructive discussion...with the Russians after
the

1995 incident we are confident that they fully understand they know 
what

this is all about and we will not have a replay of what happened then,"
he

said. 

In 1995, the 24-minute flight of the 15-metre (yard) long research
rocket,

a Norwegian-American project to study the northern lights, triggered an
air

defence alert in Russia and an international scare. 

It was the first time a northern light rocket had gone up so high,
reaching

an altitude of 1,453 km (908 miles) before landing on its target of

Spitzbergen, Norway's nothernmost Arctic outpost. 

The Norwegians say they alerted all foreign embassies well before the

launch, but the message apparently failed to reach Yeltsin and his top

military staff. 

For a few minutes the rocket sparked fears in Russia that a surprise

nuclear attack was under way. Yeltsin said afterwards he used his 
"black

suitcase" hotline link to his generals for the first time to discuss a

possible retaliatory strike. 

This time, the Norwegian Foreign Ministry has again written to all

embassies in Oslo to spell out details of the new four-stage rocket,
saying

it will reach a height of 1,339 km (832 miles) and land about 1,785 km

(1,110 miles) north of Andoeya. 

The so-called CAPER (Cleft Accelerated Plasma Experimental Rocket)
project

is expected to be launched between 0500-1300 local time sometime before

January 25. The launch has been delayed in recent days due to poor
weather. 

Hauge said extra steps were taken this time to notify Russia's high

command. A Russian diplomat was called into Norway's Foreign Ministry
and

was personally handed the note, while Norwegian diplomats hand 
delivered

the message to Moscow. 

"There is nothing more we can simply do," he said. 

Since the 1995 incident, Russian authorities have visited the 
civilian

rocket site. T-shirts are now seen around the Andoeya base boasting 
that

the peaceful rocket almost started World War Three. 


*******


#14

Russian Economics Ministry: Inflation Rate To Slow in 1999 


MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Interfax) -- The Russian Economics Ministry predicts

that the inflation rate and industrial decline will slow down in 1999

GDP will fall by no more than 2% and industrial production by no more

than 3%, compared with 5% and 5.5% in 1998, the ministry told Interfax.

The volume of investments in the main capital is expected to shrink 
by

5% compared with last year. In 1998 it decreased by 8% against 1997.

All this will help keep price rises within 30% (in 1998 the rate of

inflation stood at 84.4%).

The first half of the year will be the most difficult for Russia, as

time is needed to check the negative impact of the August crisis and
start

implementing anti-crisis measures proposed by the government.

In the first half of the year, GDP is expected to decrease by 8%

compared with the same period last year, the volume of industrial output
by

7% and investments by 12%. Inflation is expected to stand at 20%.

And yet, the first half will see the implementation of the main anti-

crisis measures -- the introduction of a real system of settlements in
the

real economic sector, an active industrial policy, cuts in taxes levied
on

producers and support for exporters, which is likely to improve the

financial and economic situation.

In the second half of the year, GDP is expected to increase by 2%

compared with the same period last year, the volume of capital
investments

is to remain at the level of the second half of 1997 and the rate of

inflation will not exceed 10%.


*******

</bigger>

#15

Los Angeles Times

January 15, 1999 

[for personal use only]

U.S. Quarrel With Russia Heats Up 

Diplomacy: Washington accused of 'psychological warfare' over Iranian
nuclear projects. 

By MAURA REYNOLDS, Times Staff Writer



MOSCOW--A dispute between the United States and Russia over Iranian
nuclear projects escalated sharply Thursday, with the Russian secret
service accusing Washington of bias and suggesting that it is getting its
facts wrong. 

The State Department raised the stakes in the dispute Wednesday,
threatening to cancel lucrative satellite launch contracts unless Russia
takes more decisive steps to prevent Iran from developing the ability to
build a nuclear bomb. The threat followed an announcement earlier in the
week by the U.S. that it was imposing sanctions on three Russian science
institutes for allegedly assisting the Iranian program. 

The U.S. actions have unleashed a flood of anti-American feeling in
Russia and threaten to sour the atmosphere when Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright visits Moscow at the end of the month. 

"I won't call it blackmail, but it's a sort of political caprice,
political pressure, not a serious attempt at preventing proliferation,"
said Alexei G. Arbatov, a liberal member of parliament's lower house and
deputy chairman of its defense committee. 

Russia's usually taciturn Federal Security Service, the main
successor to the Soviet-era KGB, issued an unusual statement saying it
had investigated the U.S. charges and found them groundless. 

"Those organizations have committed no violation of international
export-control rules intended to bar proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction and missile technology," the statement said, according to
Russian news agencies. 

"The sanctions demonstrate the American side's biased attitude
toward cooperation by Russian state organizations with foreign countries,
including the Islamic Republic of Iran," the statement continued. "We
hope this is a misunderstanding or, perhaps, a mistake by American secret
services." 

The Kremlin said President Boris N. Yeltsin instructed his advisors
to prepare an "adequate response" to the United States. 

"I don't doubt it will be tough," said Yeltsin's spokesman, Dmitri
D. Yakushkin. 

Yeltsin, whose bouts of ill health have grown longer and more
frequent, missed his first scheduled day of work since the New Year
holiday and stayed out of sight at his country residence Thursday. In a
radio interview, Yakushkin acknowledged that he has not seen the
president since before the holiday but insisted that Yeltsin's voice has
been strong in their phone conversations. 

"He has many meetings, a full work schedule," Yakushkin said. "I
want to warn journalists not to read too much into the change in his
schedule." 

The United States and Russia have been at loggerheads for years over
Russia's construction of a nuclear power plant in the southern Iranian
city of Bushehr. U.S. experts fear that the planned reactor eventually
could be used to make weapons-grade nuclear fuel, but Russian scientists
insist that it will only provide electricity. 

"Russia will not commit suicide," Yakushkin said. "Iran is our
neighbor. We will not export anything to them that could someday cause
danger to ourselves." 

But the United States remains convinced that Russian scientists
traveling to Bushehr are consulting with Iran on nuclear technology that
goes beyond civilian energy. According to sources who spoke on condition
of anonymity, the United States has even shared its intelligence
assessments with the Russian government several times in recent months in
an effort to persuade Moscow to take firmer action to curb such contacts. 

The new threat to cancel the launches of American satellites by
Russia appears to have stirred more attention on the Russian side. While
the sanctions announced earlier this week were largely symbolic, Russian
officials say they have hundreds of millions of dollars riding on the
launches. 

"But U.S. companies will lose even more," asserted Sergei K. Gromov,
a spokesman for Energiya, a major rocket manufacturer. 

"I don't think [the United States] will go beyond this psychological
warfare," Gromov continued. "We are no longer the Soviet Union. Why
should space companies suffer for the hypothetical sins of other
institutions? What do space research rockets have in common with nuclear
missiles? This is a very simplistic and superficial approach, and I hope
it will be over before our economic ties sustain any real damage." 

The Bushehr project reflects diametrically opposed attitudes toward
Iran. Russia considers Iran a moderate Islamic state and a longtime
partner with whom cooperation is more effective than punishment. The
United States, remembering the Iranian hostage crisis, doesn't believe
that Iran has proven itself a responsible member of the international
community. 

Russia and Iran say the Bushehr reactor will be monitored by the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Agency spokesman David Kyd said IAEA
oversight won't begin on the ground until nuclear fuel actually arrives
at the construction site, and that is still years in the future. The
agency, however, already monitors several research facilities elsewhere
in Iran. 

Sergei L. Loiko of The Times' Moscow Bureau contributed to this
report. 


*******


#16

Russia: Ratification Of Treaty With Ukraine In Doubt

By Jan de Weydenthal


Prague, 15 January 1999 (RFE/RL) -- When Ukrainian Foreign Minister Boris
Tarasyuk called his Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov by telephone
yesterday from Kyiv, he almost certainly focused on the prospects for
ratification of the Ukraine-Russia friendship treaty by Russia's
Federation Council (upper chamber of parliament). 

Indeed, only hours before making the call, Tarasyuk was reported by
Russian news agencies to have said he was planning to raise with
officials in Moscow what he described as "certain matters" regarding the
ratification. 

Tarasyuk was further reported to have said that some Russian
politicians express doubt about the treaty and that, in his quoted words,
"there are quite influential political forces (in Russia who take) a
destructive position regarding Ukraine." He was also cited as saying that
those forces continue to "act contrary to the interests of their own
people and also in defiance of common sense." 

The Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between Ukraine
and Russia was signed by presidents Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma
almost two years ago (May 1997), after it had been held up for several
years owing to persistent bilateral disputes. 

The signing effectively signaled Moscow's recognition of Ukraine's
sovereignty. Until 1991, when it declared its independence, Ukraine was a
part of the Soviet Union. 

The treaty also paved the way for a gradual rapprochement between the
two countries, crowned last year (March) by the conclusion of a 10-year
agreement on economic cooperation. 

Last month (Dec. 25), the Ukraine-Russia friendship treaty was
formally ratified by Russia's State Duma (lower chamber of parliament) in
the first step toward final approval. It is scheduled for a ratification
vote in the Federation Council at the end of this month. 

Approval there appears uncertain, however, owing to growing opposition
in both countries. 

Earlier this week, Russian news agencies reported from Ukraine that
the local Slavic Party had sent a letter to Russian Federation Council
chairman Yegor Stroyev and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov appealing for the
rejection of the treaty. 

Luzhkov is a powerful figure in Russian politics. A likely candidate
in the next presidential election, he is a member of the Federation
Council and is known to be reluctant to recognize Ukraine's territorial
and political separateness. 

The Slavic Party's letter was said to have described the recent
ratification of the treaty by the State Duma as a "poorly thought-out
step" and justified its appeal with allegations of so-called
"anti-Russian state policies" by the Kyiv government. 

Yesterday, the Russian newspaper "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" featured an
article by Deputy Speaker of the State Duma, Sergei Baburin, in which he
said that "the treaty with Ukraine should n-o-t be ratified at any
price." 

Baburin justified his plea with a two-fold argument. First, he said,
the treaty adversely affects Russia's national interests because, by
affirming Ukraine's separateness, it facilitates its rapprochement with
NATO. Ukraine, Baburin said, "regards NATO as the most effective European
security structure" and has already signed what he called a "cooperation
program" (the Ukraine-NATO Council) with the Alliance. The ratification
of the treaty, Baburin said, "would open the way to NATO for Ukraine (and
amount to a) clear-cut declaration of intent to join NATO." 

The second argument was essentially political, touching on traditional
ideas of Russia-led pan-Slavic movements. "The matter in question,"
Baburin said, "is not only the fate of relations between the Russian
Federation and Ukraine. The matter in question is the future of the
close-knit Slav people." He argued that the safeguarding of Slavic unity
requires the rejection of the treaty. Baburin is regarded as a relatively
moderate politician. Once a Left-leaning nationalist, he was involved in
the 1993 conflict with President Boris Yeltsin. But more recently he has
joined the mainstream political establishment. 

His "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" article is important because it confirms the
existence of lingering hopes among many influential Russian political
figures that Russia and Ukraine may eventually reunite. More important in
the short term, Baburin's article suggests that the ratification of the
Ukraine-Russia friendship treaty by the Federation Council may indeed be
in doubt. 

It is was the consciousness of that danger which prompted Tarasyuk's
call to Ivanov. But it is not certain whether his argument will prevail
in the end. 


*******





 

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