July 30, 1998   
This Date's Issues: 2289 • 2290 • 

Johnson's Russia List
#2290
30 July 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Bloomberg: Kiriyenko Meets Investors, Stresses Reforms on Track.
2. IntellectualCapital.com: One Can Influence Politics: An Interview 
with Grigory Yavlinsky.
3. Trud: MASLYUKOV'S SIX CONDITIONS.
4. New York Times: William Safire, Russia's Pols.
5. AFP: West: Russian Computer Bug Busters Late to the Game.
6. Lindalucia Green: concerning those dewy eyed, swan necked beauties....
7. Reuters: Lebed urges prompt political change in Russia.
8. Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ivan Rodin, THERE WILL BE NO REPEAT OF 1996 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN RUSSIA.
9. Rossiiskaya Gazeta: NATO FIST ON BORDER OF RUSSIA-BELARUS UNION?
10. AFP: 1999 Budget Based on 1% Growth.]

*******

#1
Kiriyenko Meets Investors, Stresses Reforms on Track

Moscow, July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko gave a
candid assessment of government finances to representatives of 30 banks and
investment companies in a bid to convince them the government's reform program
is on track. 

Some of the news was positive -- tax collection rose by 8 percent in the first
half of the year and tax receipts in June should total more than 12 billion
rubles, Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov said after the meeting. He also
pledged the government will refrain from selling any new foreign bonds at
least until the end of October. 

Russia's benchmark RTS stock index rose 1.5 percent and bonds rose, pushing
yields on ruble-denominated six-month bills down 2.47 percentage points to
66.25 percent. 

``It is a very positive sign the government is openly sharing information with
investors and soliciting feedback,'' said Yelena Titova, head of the Moscow
office of Goldman, Sachs & Co., who attended the meeting. 

Kiriyenko must convince investors the government can boost revenue and cut
spending to reduce its dependence on expensive, short-term borrowing. His task
wasn't made any easier when ratings company Fitch IBCA said it downgraded
Russia's long-term foreign currency debt rating, signaling continuing concern
about the government's ability to push its tax reform program through the
parliament. 

``We want investors working in this market to clearly understand the plans of
the Russian government and the central bank,'' Zadornov said. ``A Eurobond
sale will depend on the environment of the market.'' 

Russia has about two months to reform its finances thanks to the International
Monetary Fund, which last week paid the first $4.8 billion installment of a
$22.6 billion loan package for this year and next. 

Kiriyenko ``was talking about the government's plans for implementation of its
anti-crisis plan,'' said Titova. ``The question now is whether it will be
realized. Time will show.'' 

`Cheerleading' 

``It's basically a cheerleading deal, but it's a good idea on the part of the
government to maintain investor contacts,'' said Tim Johnston, executive
director of Alfa Asset Management in Moscow. ``Everyone is quite sick and
tired of listening to statements'' and investors are waiting to see the
results of the government's austerity measures. 

The 9 1/4 percent Eurobond maturing in 2001 rose, pushing the yield down 88
basis points to 16.018 percent. The benchmark RTS stock index was up 2.27
percent at 151.31. 

As Russia continues to struggle to make debt payments of about $1 billion
weekly, concern remains about whether the government will be able to meet its
obligations without devaluing the ruble. 

At today's meeting, the government also is expected to detail its ``strategy
for rolling over debt, which will remove some uncertainty,'' Strubel said. 

The Bank of Russia said its gold and hard currency reserves rose to $19.2
billion on July 24, higher than the $17.8 billion it held on the first of the
year. The bank's reserves rose to $18.5 billion last week, after the IMF
released the installment of Russia's loan. 

The bank likely increased its reserves by selling Treasury bills after prices
rose following the announcement of the loan, said Alexander Babayan, a
portfolio manager at CenterInvest Securities in Moscow. ``It was buying on
rumor and selling on news. They have become sophisticated enough,'' to do
this. 

Downgrade 

Meanwhile, ratings company Fitch IBCA downgraded Russia's long-term foreign
currency debt rating one notch, citing opposition from the lower house of
parliament, the Duma, to government economic reforms and spending cuts. Fitch
also downgraded seven Russian regions as well as oil companies AO Tatneft and
AO Sibneft. 

Some analysts said Fitch's downgrade trailed ratings downgrades by ratings
companies Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's, which rate Russia
one notch lower than Fitch, and doesn't indicate a decline in Russia's ability
to pay its debts. 

``The downgrade was primarily a case of the agency running after the market,''
said Eric Kraus, chief strategist at Regent European Securities. ``Fitch has
the highest rating for Russia, and is coming in line with S&P and Moody's.'' 

Today's meeting comes a day after the Ministry of Finance said the
government's 1999 draft budget trims the deficit to 2.76 percent of gross
domestic product, just under the 2.8 percent of GDP required by the
International Monetary Fund. That budget still must be approved by the Duma,
which rejected much of the government's austerity program. Measures rejected
by the Duma were later decreed by President Boris Yeltsin. 

``We have been disappointed'' by Yeltsin's and Kiriyenko's ``efforts to move
the measures that need to be legislated through the Duma,'' said Joseph
Strubel, a fund manager for MFK Renaissance with $110 million invested in East
European debt. ``The uncertainty that the passage of the package is still out
there, as well as the continued skepticism about the ability to implement it.
. . is keeping investors out of the market.'' 

The prime minister said tax collection is increasing and one of his deputies,
Victor Khristenko, said the government will meet its revenue target for July,
news agency Interfax reported. Both are key conditions for the release of the
next installment of the IMF loan. 

Tax Moves 

OAO Gazprom, Russia's biggest taxpayer, settled its tax dispute with the
government by pledging to pay at least 3.1 billion rubles ($500 million) per
month. Earlier this month, the government made an example of Gazprom to show
investors it's determined to boost tax collection. After the tax authorities
started seizing Gazprom's assets, the company promised timely payments of
taxes. 

In a move to crack down on other tax deadbeats, the Russian government said
today it will cut crude oil exports of three major oil producers because they
did not pay enough in taxes. 

The government will limit access of OAO Lukoil Holding, Russia's biggest oil
producer, AO Sidanco, the sixth-biggest, and AO Onaco, a smaller company, by a
total of 880,000 tons (6.4 billion barrels). 

The government uses access to the country's state-owned oil pipeline network
as the most efficient tool to pressure oil producers because crude exports
remain their most reliable source of cash revenue. 

The Ministry of Finance yesterday set expenditures for 1999 at 456.1 billion
rubles, or 15.7 percent of GDP. It anticipates 376.1 billion rubles in
revenue, or 12.97 percent of GDP. The budget will have a primary surplus of 84
billion rubles, or 2.9 percent of GDP. 

The government last week put the finishing touches on its economic program
which it said will boost revenue next year by 105 billion rubles. Kiriyenko
warned, though, that the government orders and presidential decrees used to
push through tax legislation not passed by the lower house of parliament, was
``not the best method to solve problems,'' reported the Russian news agency
Interfax. 

Reconvene Duma 

He called on the Duma to reconvene in August to pass into law legislation
which was passed by decree. The ministry said the 1999 draft budget revenue is
based on current legislation passed by all three branches of government. 

The IMF requires Russia to boost tax collection in order to receive future
installments of its loan, and has delayed releasing portions of previous loans
when collection was too low. 

The ministry said tax collection next year will correspond with what the
government collected in 1997, ``with an adjustment for the possible decrease
in payments,'' because of falling prices of ``oil, metal, and other
resources,'' the ministry said. 

Khristenko estimated the government will meet its revenue target for July,
collecting 11.8 billion rubles in taxes, reported Interfax, compared with the
11.2 billion rubles it collected in June. 

*******

#2
IntellectualCapital.com 
One Can Influence Politics:
An Interview with Grigory Yavlinsky
July 30, 1998 
Grigory Yavlinsky is the head of the “Yabloko” party in Russia -- a 
party that has been described as decidedly liberal in its outlook. 
Yavlinsky is a former economist, and was a candidate for the Russian 
presidency in 1996, an election in which he finished with less than 10%.
He is expected to be a key player --whether as a candidate or not -- 
in Russia’s 2000 elections. 
Yavlinsky was born in the Ukrainian city of Lvov in 1952. He became 
deputy director of the Council of Ministers of the Russian Federation -- 
when it was still part of the USSR -- in 1991. 
Last week he agreed to this interview with a member of the 
IntellectualCapital.ru staff. Here is a translated, and edited, version 
of the transcripts. 

IC-What do you think is the real state of the Russian economy? Despite 
the gloomy statistics, it seems to one that people, at least in big 
cities, really do live better than they used to. 
GY-The state of the 
economy is really very difficult. One can't balance on the edge of the 
crisis for very long. One would have either to take serious measures to 
make the economy more healthy, namely to develop industry, to control 
"natural monopolies" -- or to be ready to accept the fact that "card 
houses" built on credit can't stand for very long. 
As to people living better than they used to, there is a simple 
indicator -- how they vote, for example -- at the State Duma elections. 
Why do a large proportion of our citizens support Communists? Russian 
society of today is a society of big inequality in terms of wealth. Of 
course, many now live better. But a still larger number of people lost 
even the basic benefits they had under socialism. Hence the support of 
the KPRF (Communist Party). 
IC-What's your attitude about the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) 
participation in saving Russia? 
GY-I approve of many aspects of the IMF 
activities. One must keep in mind that it's a very professional 
organization. Sometimes they make mistakes. But it's not the IMF who is 
responsible for internal Russian economic problems; it's the Russian 
Government. So all the blame should be put primarily on ourselves. And 
the IMF? Well, they help as well as they can, as far as they understand 
the Russian situation.
IC-What alternative financial sources are there? 
GY-An alternative source would be a Russian government policy to attract 
private foreign investments, and to encourage Russian investors. But to 
achieve that, the Parliament must amend legislation so it would 
encourage investments.
IC-What do you think about the process of economic globalization? How do 
you see Russia's participation in this process? 
GY-Globalization is an 
obvious and inevitable thing. Russia is becoming more and more 
integrated in the world economy. The proof is how the events in 
Southeast Asia influenced the Russian financial markets. It's also 
obvious that Russia, as a big supplier of energy resources to the world 
market, has been a part of the world economy for a long time. I think 
Russia's problem is that she is still not integrated enough in the 
sector of the world economy one could call a "private industrial 
investments sector." Also, Russian manufacturing exports are still too 
low. 
IC-What about events in India, in Pakistan, about nuclear weapons 
and about the role Russian companies play in supplying weapons to the 
Third World countries in general?
GY-I see the nuclear tests conducted in 
India and Pakistan as very alarming. So far, no great pressure is being 
put on those countries to stop the tests. In the system of tests they 
now joined, the probability of a chance nuclear conflict -- a chance one 
as well as an intentional one -- is higher. So a real race of missiles 
and nuclear weapons is beginning in South Asia. 
As to supplies by Russian companies to India, as far as I know, they 
don't have anything to do with India's nuclear program. 
IC-How would you assess the first month of the new prime minister in 
office? 
GY-Nothing radically new is being done, as compared with what 
Victor Chernomyrdin was doing. It's the same old policy, on the 
background of the country's economic situation getting worse ICWhat do 
you think about General Aleksandr Lebed's victory in the Krasnoyarsk 
region? During the 1996 elections there was talk about a possibility of 
Lebed-Yavlinsky alliance of one sort or another. Would such an alliance 
be possible now? GYLebed's victory means only one thing: People are so 
fed up with the current state of affairs, they would trade it for 
anything. We'll see what they get now. We'll see what Lebed can do in 
Krasnoyarsk. Let's wait for one year. It's too early to speak about any 
alliances now. There are almost two years before the next elections.
IC-Do you agree with financier Boris Berezovsky, who said that only three 
people can possibly be elected as the new president: Moscow Mayor Yury 
Luzhkov, Lebed and Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov? Are you ready to 
find a new candidate from "Yabloko," to propose a fresh "electable" 
person to the country, using Berezovsky's logic? Who could that person 
be? 
GY-I wouldn't select a person Berezovsky points to as "electable," 
but one who can prove that a choice is possible in principle, that 
nothing is predetermined as it was the last time: either vote, or you 
get the Communists.
IC-This interview with IntellectualCapital.ru
provides an opportunity to address Russian Netizens. What important 
things would you personally and "Yabloko" as a political movement like 
to communicate to them? Why shouldn't young Russians be indifferent to 
politics?
GY-There was a very significant expression in your question, 
"Russian Netizens." What is important is who the Internet users think 
they are: Russian citizens or citizens of the Net. A haughty, arrogant 
attitude toward politics, toward social developments is typical of young 
people. They often think they can hide behind their work, their hobbies. 
But then they grow up, their parents grow old and need medical 
treatment, their children grow up and need schooling, they want to feel 
confident of their future.So gradually they understand that an arrogant 
attitude toward politics turns against those who thought political 
battles were not for them. Suddenly it turns out that taxes are not 
acceptable, that a war is starting somewhere, and so on -- and we will 
not be spared all that. 
As to "Netizens" being able to influence the way the country goes -- of 
course they can do that, just as every person can do it. Our country is 
nothing but us, all of us. 
IC-What is "Yabloko"'s position on the legislation and regulations 
concerning the Internet? In particular, what do you think about the 
wording of the new law on mass media?
GY-"Yabloko" is against all 
attempts to limit the freedom of the Internet. We are against licensing, 
against censorship. We are liberals as far as the Internet is concerned. 
IC-Does "Yabloko" plan to employ the Internet potential in election 
campaigns in 1999 and 2000? How would you assess the potential of the 
Net as a means of political communication? 
GY-Of course we are going to 
use the Internet, both in the parliamentary elections in 1999 and in the 
presidential campaign of 2000. We believe the Internetís potential is 
high, and we see it as an alternative to mass media. So far in Russia 
the Internet is not developed enough to make serious competition to TV 
or to large-circulation newspapers. But the situation is changing 
rapidly. 

********

#3
>From RIA Novosti
Trud
July 30, 1998
MASLYUKOV'S SIX CONDITIONS

A sensational piece of news for the White House of Russia
(the government): by presidential decree, Yury Dmitriyevich
Maslyukov, chairman of the Duma committee for economic policy
and a member of the KPRF (Communist Party of the Russian
Federation) faction, is appointed as minister of industries
and trade. Maslyukov was born in 1937. He has a degree in
electrical engineering. He worked at the defence industry
plants. Later he was appointed deputy chairman of the Council
of Ministers of the USSR. He was elected member of the CPSU
Central Committee and member of the CC CPSU Politbureau. He is
married, with a son.

A Trud correspondent Igor RUMYANTSEV was one of the first
to interview Yury MASLYUKOV.

Question: How will you explain your consent to work in
the government? You've agreed to take such a heavy burden upon
youself, and at this far from favourable time for the Russian
economy...
Answer: Of course, I could refuse to take such
responsibility and leave everything as it is, instead of going
to work in the government. But then, I am sure, in a few
months the negative processes occurring in major strategic
sectors of the national economy will become irreversible. I
want to make an attempt to save what can be saved. I hope that
my experience of work with the defence industry complex will
help resolve many problems and take measures aimed at actually
rescuing the Russian industry and creating conditions to pull
it out of a disastrous crisis.

Question: Surely, your consent to play such a role can be
explained by nothing else but your confidence that it is still
possible to revive the national industry. Could you tell us in
brief about the main prerequisites for this.
Answer: The main thing is to make the Ministry of
Industries and Trade (Minpromtorg) a viable body vested with
real powers. For this, it is absolutely necessary to implement
the following conditions.
First, to withdraw civilian and defence industries from
the Economics Ministry's competence. The Minpromtorg should be
given the task to implement state investment policy in
industry, including the development budget.
Second, to make the Minpromtorg responsible for foreign
trade and industrial policy and, what is extremely important
(and this is my principled position), including the issues of
military-technical cooperation with foreign countries. The
statute of the Minpromtorg must provide for the minister's
right to approve or reject candidates for appointment as heads
of the companies Rosvooruzheniye, Promexport, and Russian
Technologies, or their dismissal. These candidates will be
subsequently presented to the president by the premier.
Third, to assign to the Minpromtorg's current management
the blocks of shares of subordinate federally-owned
joint-stock companies and the property of enterprises
transferred for its economic management.
Fourth, to assign to the Minpromtorg the functions of an
authorised executive federal body for forming and implementing
the state order.
Fifth, to entrust the Minpromtorg, jointly with the
defence ministry and other ministries concerned, with the task
to elaborate a conception of reforming the system of purchases
of arms and military hardware.
Sixth, to instruct the minister of industries and trade
to directly coordinate and supervise the work of the Ministry
for Atomic Energy and the Russian Space Agency.
All these are the cardinal issues and their solution can
help avert the further destruction of industry and the defence
complex. It would be difficult to achieve any positive results
without it.

Question: There was a time when you held the post of
chairman of the State Planning Committee of the USSR. During
the years which have passed since then the methods of economic
management have radically changed. Now any layman would
criticise the planned economy trying to prove that the plan
and reforms are incompatible things. What is your opinion?
Answer: Today, the task is such a transition to the
market economy which would enable Russia to maximally preserve
national high technologies, the unique production, research,
technological and human potential of our industry. World
experience shows that this is only possible when the state
takes an active stand, when it regulates and manages the
transition processes.

Question: Russia is living through a socio-economic
crisis. How will you connect these two things: the social and
economic aspects of the problem? 
Answer: There is a direct dependence of one on the other.
The basis for the solution of our numerous problems,
primarily social ones, is a transition to economic and
industrial growth. Given production growth people will work
and earn money. Besides, the tax base will expand and the
budget will get more funds which could be used for social
needs.

*******

#4
New York Times
July 30, 1998
[for personal use only]
William Safire: Russia's Pols

MOSCOW -- I am not Yevgeny Primakov's favorite columnist. In a recent
interview with my Times colleagues, Russia's Foreign Minister brandished a
piece I wrote about his scheme to sell missiles to Cyprus -- thereby to ignite
a war between Greece and Turkey -- and characterized it as "glupo." Although
his interpreter gentled that down to "unwise," the Russian word means
"stupid." 
The underlying reason for his irritation is probably a biographical aside I
filed last year about his name: Primakov is the Ukrainian word for "stepson."
He adopted that name because the one he was born with -- Finkelstein -- was
hardly useful to a K.G.B. espionage agent under cover as a Pravda
correspondent in the Arab Middle East. 
Curiously, the sensitivity of many other Russian politicians to their Jewish
parentage is changing. 
This was dramatized in the last presidential campaign when the reformer
Grigory Yavlinsky pointed to the nutty nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and
said, "Both of us are half Jewish, but I'm the one who admits it." 
The architect of the I.M.F. bailout, Anatoly Chubais, is listed in the
"Jewish Encyclopedia of Russia." So is his archrival, Boris Berezovsky, the
equally unpopular auto-and-oil tycoon who took Israeli citizenship five years
ago and has since been appointed to powerful Russian posts. Berezovsky warned
Boris Nemtsov, the charismatic reformer elected to be governor of Nizhny
Novgorod, not to run for President because he has "a purely genetic problem." 
Nemtsov shrugs this off. "In the first stage of your entry into politics,"
he told me the other day in his Moscow White House office, "they look at your
biography. But after you've been on TV a hundred times, they forget." 
Not yet 40, Nemtsov was brought to Moscow by Boris Yeltsin and now tries to
bring reform to the energy sector as Deputy Prime Minister. His popularity in
national polls has dipped with the state of the shaky economy, but is little
affected by the public's knowledge that he is a Jew. 
When asked as far back as January by Yeltsin's chief of staff to put down
five names as choices for a replacement to Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin
(who did not know his head was on the block), Nemtsov included in his list
Sergei Kiriyenko, an energetic executive in his mid-30's who had worked with
him in Nizhny, who comes from a Jewish family. 
Although Chernomyrdin had earlier thought Kiriyenko to be too young to be a
deputy minister of oil and gas, Nemtsov saw him as "smart, honest, liberal."
Yeltsin, looking for a shaker-upper with no political base, stunned the world
by making Kiriyenko his Prime Minister. Criticism centered on his youth and
political inexperience, and on Yeltsin's seeming impulsiveness, but not on the
new man's ethnicity. 
What does this mean? Nobody can claim that Russia, home of the pogrom and
the Pale and Stalin's "anti-cosmopolitanism" campaign, has suddenly lost its
deep-rooted prejudices, or that nearly a million Jews were glupo to abandon
Russia in this decade for security and opportunity in Israel and America. 
When a bomb exploded two months ago at Moscow's Marina Roshche synagogue, a
Communist member of the Duma said ominously: "For some reason, priority is
bestowed on one nationality -- Jews. Unfortunately, I do not rule out that
there may be more explosions." 
But the Communists are in decline and the more opportunistic exploit bigotry
against Muslims, usually darker-skinned Russians from the Caucasus. Moscow's
Mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, a nationalist presidential hopeful who is trying to drain
off Communist voters, put on a skullcap and attended synagogue services to
make Moscow's 300,000 Jews (few religious) feel more secure. 
Resentment is directed at manipulative oligarchs like Berezovsky who
dominate the economy; few of them assert their Jewishness, though the media
mogul Vladimir Gosinsky leads Russia's Jewish Congress. 
In tough economic times, this general acceptance of Jews in the full glare
of Russian politics suggests a cultural change for the better. As Madeleine
Albright could tell her counterpart Primakov, revelation of a Jewish
background is no handicap and should be no cause for embarrassment. That
augurs well for the beleaguered Russian people. 

*******

#5
West: Russian Computer Bug Busters Late to the Game 
July 29, 1998

MOSCOW -- (Agence France Presse) The Western business community in 
Moscow on Wednesday welcomed efforts by the authorities to confront the 
"millennium bug" computer problem, but warned that Russia might have 
acted too late to avoid major disruption when 2000 dawns. 

Russia is well behind the West in verifying its information technology 
systems and computer networks to see whether they will be struck by the 
"Y2K" computer problem associated with the start of the third 
millennium. 

Experts warn that the way computer code was written in many systems 
means computers could fail in 2000 because dates ending in "00" will be 
interpreted as the year 1900, triggering potentially crippling errors in 
logic. 

But although Russia's State Communications and Information Committee 
chief Aleksander Krupnov launched a public awareness campaign on 
Tuesday, Western business leaders here said that Russia had a mountain 
to climb if it were to sort out the problem in time. 

Krupnov admitted that in a worst case scenario the banking, stock 
market, telecommunications, energy and national early-warning defense 
systems could all collapse to varying degrees. 

"You just have to compare with other countries to see that they are 
coming to it very late," said a partner in the management consultant 
division of Coopers and Lybrand in Moscow, Pat Kelleher. 

Awareness of the Y2K problem was low in Russian business circles, he 
said, adding that the risks involved ranged from minor disruptions to 
complete business failure. 

"If banks have problems then their customers will definitely have 
problems. If banks can't give customers access to funds, their customers 
as a result will not have the money to pay their suppliers," he said. 

Ron Piasecki, president of InterGov Technologies (IGT) based in Northern 
Virginia, said Western business groups in Moscow were bidding to 
encourage their Russian counterparts to make contingency plans. 

Piasecki said he had seen few signs that the Russian authorities were 
working on the so-called embedded microchip issue, tiny processors that 
perform vital control functions in a vast array of equipment, including 
cellular telephones, fax machines, heart pacemakers, monitoring 
equipment in nuclear plants, pipelines, radars and missiles. 

Even a 2 percent failure rate would involve 120 million chips, said 
Piasecki, adding: "What they are part of and what kind of problems they 
could cause is...an unknown question." 

Business should tackle the issue as a management problem rather than 
simply as an IT or telecommunications problem, he said. 

"If an assembly line shuts down, then the person who manages that 
assembly line has a problem. It may have been caused by an IT issue or a 
chip, but it's now an operations problem and he'd better decide what to 
do about it," he said. 

U.S. nuclear plants will only be allowed to operate if they ensure every 
single chip is Y2K compliant, and they face temporary shutdown until 
they can prove the plant will not be affected, he said. It remains 
unclear whether similar rules will be enforced in Russia, but Western 
trade officials in Moscow have dismissed the specter of a Chernobyl-type 
meltdown. ( (c) 1998 Agence France Presse) 

*******

#6
From: "lindalucia green" <lgreen@wwn.net>
Subject: concerning those dewy eyed, swan necked beauties....
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 

Reading Mike Snow's paen to the beauty and desireability of all those
young Russian women, then his caustic rebuttal to Jenni Bennet's remarks
about those perceptions leads me wonder what has happened in his life to so
sour him on American women. And then to read the comments of Tate Ulsaker
(Mike Snow's Piece Response) supporting Mr Snow's assessment of the most
beautiful women in the world and some more slamming of American women,
particulary "feminist" women left me wondering where these two guys have
been hanging out in the United States that has made them such vehement
critics of American females:
"Feminism has nothing to offer here." (quotation marks mine)
"The day of the feminist is gone, thank God! That was one of the first
things I noticed about Russia. Mike Snow only echoes what everyone knows
who has visited Russia for 2 days or more. Feminism can never take hold
here and a good guy with a strong head on his shoulders is always wanted" 
Wanted for what, Mr. Ulsaker? Many American women are looking for the
same qualities in a man that you say these devastatingly feminine Russian
women are looking for in a man and are having the same difficulty finding
them here.
"equal rights" now means"equal roles". 
Now that is an interesting statement, but is also a personal opinion
having no judicial basis. 
"It is amazing. Equal rights today in America means equal in every way".
"Mention that man
and women have different roles to play as a union and you are immediately
the one waving red flags... a male cheauvanist for all to despise....."
Well, I for one would never call any man who acknowledged the differences in
roles that a man and women might have to play in a relationship a male
chauvinist, but I am only one woman and my opinion is only my own. However,
since Mr Ulsaker has admittedly been in close contact with hundreds of
Russian women in the last four years and has never felt unwanted by any of
them, perhaps the subject of role playing has come up in his experience much
more frequently than in mine.
"A man who doesn't hit his woman too much and drink every day is in such
demand, is pampered so much, that he begins to believe he is actually worth
all that attention. No longer kept in check, desirable men roam any city in
Russia (especially outside of Moscow) with an address book that grows as
fast as he can write."
Hmmm, desirable men roaming the streets in Russia? No longer kept in
check? Kept in check? Surely Mr Ulsaker is not suggesting that those soft,
submissive Russian beauties ever exercised any kind of control or check over
their Russian men? That flies in the face of the "Me Tarzan, You Jane"
behavior that seems to be so alluring to both Mr Snow and Mr Ulsaker. It
even begins to sound like that there may be some tough Russian women hiding
out somewhere---like maybe under the surface of those dewy eyed, swan
necked, uninterested in American men's money, Russian beauties. I must tell
you and Mr Snow that I have lots of experience with Russian women myself,
throught visits to Russia and here in the United States. Indeed, many of
them are very attractive, very intelligent and friendly people. But in
their souls, feminism is alive and well and most of the Russian women that I
know fit perfectly that old saying about an iron hand in a velvet
glove---watch out! After so many years of Soviet rule and alcoholic
husbands, lovers, sons Russian women have perfected the role of ruling the
home and family while appearing to dote on their men. Some of the Russian
women that I know would strike fear into the heart of Gloria Steinem with
their brand of feminism. 
I am sure that none of my remarks will make much difference to minds as
made up as yours, Mr Snow and Mr Ulsaker, and I am certain that you are
sincere in wanting to treat your women as queens. I am equally certain that
you will find many lovely women in Russia very happy to accommodate that
kind of role playing with you. Best of luck in that endeavor.
Sincerely,
Lindalucia Green

*******

#7
Lebed urges prompt political change in Russia

MOSCOW, July 30 (Reuters) - Tough-talking reserve general and Siberian
governor Alexander Lebed on Thursday criticised Russia's current leaders and
called for a swift change of government, but only by democratic means. 

"A change of power is imminent...(But) we do not have the right to (set up)
barricades, we have spilt enough blood in the past," Lebed said in televised
remarks. 

Lebed was addressing a conference of his Russian Popular-Republican Party in
Krasnoyarsk, capital of his region. Lebed must now step down as leader of the
party following his victory in the May election to become governor of
Krasnoyarsk. 

He said his party and another associated movement, Pride and Motherland,
wanted to gain power in Russia "on the basis of people's common sense, not
through bayonets." 

He reiterated that his party would campaign actively in the next election for
the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, due in December 1999. 

Interfax news agency also quoted Lebed as saying President Boris Yeltsin's
administration had to go. He criticised its handling of Russia's economy,
especially taxation, saying it was harming both companies and citizens. 

Lebed's remarks come at a time of acute financial crisis that has forced
Yeltsin and his government to seek a foreign loan bailout worth $22.6 billion
over two years. 

Lebed said on Monday he might run for the presidency in 2000 if Russia's
economic situation worsens. 

Lebed, an ambitious, no-nonsense politician who came a strong third in the
1996 race for the Kremlin, had previously said he wanted to concentrate on
rebuilding the vast, mineral-rich Krasnoyarsk region. 

His movement currently has no seats in the chamber but Lebed himself sits in
the upper house Federation Council, which groups regional leaders. 

Last week Lebed wrote an open letter to Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko saying
he might take over a missile unit in the Krasnoyarsk region if Moscow did not
pay its troops. 

*******

#8
>From RIA Novosti
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
July 30, 1998 
THERE WILL BE NO REPEAT OF 1996 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN RUSSIA
Excessive Ambitions and Fickleness of Some Politicians
May Ruin Fledgling Election Coalitions
By Ivan RODIN

It appears that all those concerned have taken seriously
Boris Yeltsin's remark about a hot autumn. And although the
President has said nothing about preparations for that autumn,
such preparations had to be made and these very people have got
down to business. Using the summer political lull, when only the
Kiriyenko government and the workers angered by it have been
active so far, various political groups and groupings have begun
thinking how they will spend the next two pre-election years.
As this newspaper has already written, four politicians who
are so unlike one another and who never demonstrated their
friendship in public have joined forces and signed a letter to
the Government on the situation in Chechnya. Political circles
have not yet regarded their union as a long-term coalition, but
some people who are involved in creating such unions and also
those who are not have told this correspondent that the new union
was promising and, more importantly, exemplary.
There is reason to believe that Messrs. Chernomyrdin,
Shaimiyev, Lebed and Berezovsky have not yet created a political
or pre-election coalition, but there is no denying the fact that
they have at last set off a trend, which their consultants and
advisors had long urged them to begin. As a matter of fact, this
trend has already existed for some time, although the public
never had the chance to see it and it is the four signers of the
letter to the Government that have exposed it. The gist of the
move is simple and has been discussed many a time: various elites
or groups and even clans must come to terms because there will be
no repeat of 1996.
Even if Yeltsin decides to re-run, he will hardly secure
silent support for his nomination by all elites and will have to
share his future powers. If he doesn't, nothing is more important
for a potential candidate than choose the right ally at the right
time. Incidentally, Chernomyrdin is searching in the right
direction, if his union with Shaimiyev and Lebed is not
incidental: any new election will undoubtedly have a strong
regional dimension and a great deal will depend on the
candidate's positions in key regions.
Chernomyrdin's union with Berezovsky may come in handy for
the former, if it lasts, because his NDR movement may receive
support from other parties and movements, which hold oligarchs in
high regard. It should be noted that the ex-premier and his
followers are preparing for the future political battles most
competently. This potential candidate for the Russian throne has
enough financial, political and regional support and all he has
to win yet is electoral support. There is reason to believe that
if he makes good use of the first three, he will not fail to win
the fourth.
Another hypothetical candidate, Yuri Luzhkov, looks a little
bit paler, although his followers have stepped up their activity
in the weak spots of his aura. As we all know, the Moscow mayor
has never been short of funds, but he has always lacked influence
in the regions and, especially, in political circles. Mr. Luzhkov
is trying to tackle the first problem himself, making serious
claims for leadership in the Federation Council as a
representative of the donor regions. True, he is rivalled there
by Alexander Lebed, who may make things hard for the Moscow mayor
if the general's new whim does not destroy his union with
Chernomyrdin.
As for partisan support for Mr. Luzhkov's presidential
ambitions, it may come from numerous small political
organisations, both nationalist and social-democrat. They offer
their support in any form, but they have not yet heard any word
of encouragement from the man wearing a leather cap. As usual,
the latter may argue as follows: let them do their job and they
will be paid according to the results. In addition, it is not
ruled out that the Moscow mayor has something else on his mind at
the moment: there has been speculation for some time that he is
trying to mend his fences with Anatoly Chubais. 
If this is true, Mr. Luzhkov's motives are understandable:
on the one hand, a union with Chubais may create more problems
than bring favourable results; on the other hand, it may ensure a
significant success. However, Chubais is known for his love of
power and habit of backing out of his words whenever it suits
him. As a person well versed in the ways of political laders told
this correspondent, Chubais will hardly join Luzhkov as a
campaign organiser or fund-raiser and will surely demand his
share of power if Luzhkov wins. As a matter of fact, the Moscow
mayor never fails to dump an annoying fellow-traveller whenever
he sees fit, so his possible alliance with Russia's chief power
engineer may turn out to be a queer affair.
All these convolutions may be observed so far in what is
generally called the "party of power". At the other end of the
scale, that is the opposition, all is quiet. A communist leader
has told this correspondent that the communists plan to discuss
their election strategy at a central committee plenum in October.
So far, they are preparing for the political struggle of the next
two years in the same format, as part of the so-called Russian
People's Patriotic Union. Sources in the communist party even
refuse to think that their leader may become a junior partner to
Chernomyrdin or Luzhkov, saying that the mass of their followers
won't approve of such a move.
The leader of the democratic opposition, Grigory Yavlinsky,
also looks lonely. So far, he is gradually building up Yabloko's
presence in the regions. He will have a chance if the elites fail
to reach agreement on one or two candidates and fall out. The
untarnished image of the only consistent opposition leader will
come in handy in that case, but it won't be enough for victory.
That is why if Mr. Yavlinsky does not want to spend the rest of
his life as a parliamentary deputy, he simply has to become
someone's ally.

*******

#9
>From RIA Novosti
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
July 30, 1998
NATO FIST ON BORDER OF RUSSIA-BELARUS UNION?
By Anatoly SHAPOVALOV

ITAR-TASS reports that the Baltic Triangle-98 international
exercises, attended by a joint battalion of Polish, German and
Danish servicemen, have ended in Poland. 
The joint battalion is an unusual military formation. It
consists of units which will soon be incorporated into the
international army corps consisting of three divisions--a Polish
mechanised division, a German tank division, and a Danish
division, says the press service of the National Defence Ministry
of Poland. The corps' headquarters will be located in Szczecin.
This is the first time that a NATO unit will be deployed beyond
its borders, on the territory of a former Soviet ally in the
Warsaw Treaty Organisation. 
Meanwhile, NATO strategists responsible for the bloc's
foreign policy assure the world that expansion is out of the
question. Read the NATO-Russia Founding Act, and you will see
that the West gives an indirect (and why not direct?) pledge not
to move eastward. Klaus Naumann, chairman of the bloc's military
committee, stated that no command structures of the bloc would be
deployed on the territory of new NATO members (Poland, Hungary
and the Czech Republic).
And they honoured their pledge until recently, although they
did not sit on their hands, either. NATO, East European and
Baltic states held joint seminars and small exercises, and
created peace-keeping units which were not larger than battalion.
So, it came as a shock when Denmark suggested that a joint
army corps (numbering 70,000 personnel) be created out of three
divisions - the German division currently deployed in
Neubrandenburg (former East Germany), the Polish division
deployed in Szczecin, and the Danish division located in
Fredericia, to be armed with nearly 700 armoured vehicles,
powerful artillery systems, helicopter gunships and transports. 
The corps will have an impressive combat ability and
firepower. But why is it being created? Trying to answer this
question, Danish Defence Minister Hans Haekkerup said rather
ambiguously that officers from three countries will be able to
collaborate within the NATO framework thanks to that corps,
especially if they have to carry out complicated operations.
Left-wing opposition members of the Danish Parliament
immediately demanded to know what "complicated operations" he
meant. The corps will focus its attention on peace-keeping
missions, the minister assured them, acting on the instructions
of the UN Security Council or the OSCE.
But the southern coast of the Baltic is not Bosnia. There
are no regional conflicts here. And then, 70,000 is too many for
keeping the peace. A half of that number was enough to maintain
peace in Bosnia.
This means that the Danish minister holds something back.
(Analysts believe that the NATO strategists are worried by the
Russian forces deployed outside Kaliningrad.) Mr. Haekkerup
admitted that the new initiative was not hailed in Russia, but he
explained this by its unwillingness to see its ex-Warsaw Treaty
allies in NATO. 
Indeed, Moscow has every reason to worry if a powerful
military fist appears on the border of an allied state, Belarus
in a year. The trouble is that this corps will be free to move
wherever it wants in Poland. 

*******

#10
1999 Budget Based on 1% Growth 
July 29, 1998

MOSCOW -- (Agence France Presse) Russia's crucial 1999 budget will be 
based on an assumption that the economy will grow by 1 percent next 
year, despite the current economic crisis facing the country and dismal 
growth figures in recent years, Itar-Tass news agency reported on 
Wednesday. 

The agency quoted officials as saying that the Finance Ministry would 
put forward its draft budget to the government early next month before 
the bill passes to the Duma (lower house of parliament) in the autumn. 

The bill provides for total spending next year of 456 billion rubles 
($72.7 billion) of which 36 percent will go on servicing Russia's huge 
debt mountain which has brought the economy to its knees in recent 
months. 

Revenue is to total 376 billion rubles ($55.95 billion) leaving a budget 
deficit of 80 billion rubles, just 2.8 percent of gross domestic 
product. 

That would bring the deficit in line with pledges made by the Russian 
government to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which helped secure 
a $22.6 billion bailout for Russia's troubled economy put together by 
the fund. 

Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow by 1 percent in 1999, 
despite a recent downgrading by the ministry of its estimate for GDP 
this year. The economy is now expected to contract by 0.5 percent. 

GDP grew by 0.4 percent in 1997, the only instance since the collapse of 
the Soviet Union of signs of growth in the Russian economy. 

The economy contracted by 0.5 percent in the first half of this year as 
the financial crisis unleashed this spring began to bite and the economy 
labored under interest rates as high as 150 percent. 

*******