April 21, 1998  
This Date's Issues: 2158•  2159• 

Johnson's Russia List
#2159
21 April 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. AP: Communist Won't Back Yeltsin's Pick.
2. RIA Novosti: IT'S "HIGHLY PROBABLE" THAT THE DUMA WILL AGREE TO
DISSOLUTION, VLADIMIR RYZHKOV THINKS.
3. Interfax: Russia's Chernomyrdin Opposes Duma Dissolution.
4. Russia Today satire: Mary Campbell, Political Ties.
5. Moscow Tribune: Ogor Zaslonov, Russians protest against Western food.
6. Christian Science Monitor: Judith Matloff, Russians Find Becoming A
Latvian 
Isn't Easy.
7. Jamestown Foundation Monitor: WOULD DUMA DISSOLUTION BE AN ECONOMIC 
DISASTER FOR RUSSIA? 
8. Interfax: Poll: Incumbent Krasnoyarsk Governor May Beat Lebed.
9. Moscow Times: Jean MacKenzie, CONFESSIONS OF A RUSSOPHILE: A Culture 
of Disobedience.
10. Albert Weeks: ABC-TV report on the U.S.-Russian missile status.
11. AP: Walter Mears, NATO Expanding Questions Remain.
12. Reuters: Martin Nesirky, Russian armed forces in critical shape.
13. New York Times: Eric Schmitt, NATO Opponents Vocal, Diverse and Active.
14. Financial Times (UK): Chrystia Freeland and Michiyo Nakamoto, Kurile
islands 
dispute reignited.]

*********

#1
Communist Won't Back Yeltsin's Pick 
By Vladimir Isachenkov
April 21, 1998

MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia's Communist Party will vote against Boris Yeltsin's
nominee for premier in a third and final vote this week despite the
president's threat to dissolve parliament, the party's leader said today. 
Some opposition lawmakers, however, said they have changed their stance
and will endorse the candidate, Sergei Kiriyenko, rather than risk losing
their own jobs. 
If legislators in the State Duma, parliament's lower house, vote against
Kiriyenko once more, they will also be voting themselves out. Yeltsin can
disband the body if lawmakers fail to confirm his candidate in three votes. 
``The Duma is ready for dissolution,'' said Vladimir Ryzhkov of the
pro-Yeltsin faction Our Home is Russia. 
``Half of the Duma already is packing their bags and preparing for new
elections,'' he added. ``Everything now depends on the left-wing
opposition.'' 
Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, speaking in the Siberian town
of Krasnoyarsk, said his party was not afraid of early elections, the
ITAR-Tass news agency reported. 
They ``might be useful for Russia,'' Zyuganov said. 
The Communists control a major portion of the 450-member Duma and
Kiriyenko would need at least some of their votes to get the 226 required. 
The Duma has rejected Kiriyenko's nomination twice in the past two
weeks, citing his youth -- he is 35 -- and inexperience. 
But the Kremlin and Kiriyenko remain optimistic that he will be
confirmed, a position bolstered today by two hard-line opposition parties
that said they would change their position. The Agrarians and Popular Power
said they would endorse Yeltsin's choice because they thought it unwise to
risk the dissolution of parliament. 
``You can't leave the country without a parliament,'' Popular Power
leader Nikolai Ryzhkov said today. ``We did what we could, sticking to our
principled course. But there's no sense in having the Duma disbanded.'' 
Ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky's faction, which previously voted
against Kiriyenko, also may decide to endorse him. Zhirinovsky's support
base appears to be shrinking, according to recent polls, and his party
would probably lose seats in new elections. 


Combined with pro-Yeltsin and moderate factions, these groups may be
able to put Kiriyenko over the top. 
Also, although Zyuganov remains opposed to Kiriyenko, many observers
expect his party to change its mind -- perhaps clandestinely -- at a
meeting of the ruling Central Committee scheduled for Thursday. 
In Russia's still-volatile political climate, no one can be sure who
would benefit from the early ballot. 
The political drama began March 23, when Yeltsin dismissed the
government of Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, accusing it of failing to
address Russia's pressing economic and social problems. 
Yeltsin said Russia needed a new generation of leaders and picked the
little-known Kiriyenko, a former banker and fuel minister, to lead a more
youthful administration. 
Since then, Kiriyenko has headed an interim government, which is
handling routine business but has not made any key policy decisions. 
**********

#2
IT'S "HIGHLY PROBABLE" THAT THE DUMA WILL AGREE TO
DISSOLUTION, VLADIMIR RYZHKOV THINKS
MOSCOW, APRIL 21. /FROM RIA NOVOSTI CORRESPONDENTS GALINA
FILIPPOVA AND GALINA AMELKINA/. -It's "highly probable" that the
State Duma will agree to dissolution, First Deputy Speaker of
the State Duma Vladimir Ryzhkov told a RIA Novosti correspondent
after the Duma's Council meeting. "I think that the likelihood
of the Duma failing to support Sergei Kiriyenko's candidacy for
Prime Minister on the third occasion is over 50%, Ryzhkov said.
He pointed out that the Duma's dissolution and, consequently,
early Parliamentary elections in August are perfectly realistic
prospects.
According to Ryzhkov, in the last days off many deputies
visited their electoral districts to assure themselves of the
support of constituents. Now that "approximately half of the
Duma's deputies are packing their bags and making ready for the
early Parliamentary elections, one can say that the lower house
of Parliament is prepared for dissolution," the First Deputy
Speaker said.
At the same time, Ryzhkov emphasised that results of a
voting on Kiriyenko's candidacy will depend in many respects on
the form of this procedure and resolutions to be made by the
KPRF Central Committee's plenum. In the event of a secret vote,
the First Deputy Speaker described the chances of the Acting
Prime Minister as "rather high." As far as a open vote is
concerned, in this case "Sergei Kiriyenko will practically stand
no chances for approval," Ryzhkov opined.
********

#3
Russia's Chernomyrdin Opposes Duma Dissolution 

MOSCOW, April 21 (Interfax) - Former Russian Prime Minister Viktor
Chernomyrdin is categorically opposed to the dissolution of the Duma. "Can
you imagine the amount of money needed for early elections?" he said in an
interview with Kommersant Daily published Tuesday. 
"We simply don't have it. As it is we have suffered from the crisis in
Asia, from the drop in oil prices. There is a hole in the budget as it is.
If elections are organized on top of all that, it will not be simply a
diversion of financial resources, but everything and everyone - then
nothing will get done this year at all," Chernomyrdin said. 
"I don't want to say that the old government made no mistakes. There
were mistakes, we saw them, admitted and corrected them without any
ambition." 


"But the main thing is that a system was built, and it functions; laws
were written that won't allow the country to turn back. We did not and
don't have any differences with the president over that," Chernomyrdin said. 
Chernomyrdin said his new role would give him more freedom of action.
"There was one Chernomyrdin who was always in the president's shadow,
always in second place, as was said. Now a different Chernomyrdin has
appeared for whom the time has come to enter a different sphere - politics." 
"There is no tragedy for me in what has happened," he said. 
Chernomyrdin remains a strong supporter of the presidential system.
"There cannot be two poles. The president makes decisions and the
government carries them out. The government is virtually the president's
administration in the classical sense." 
"The administration should not get involved in the affairs of executive
bodies -- the president speaks of that all the time. There is space for
reductions there. But if everyone - I mean the administration and
government - starts tugging on the blanket, there will be havoc,"
Chernomyrdin said. 
********

#4
Russia Today satire 
By Mary Campbell


http://www.russiatoday.com

Political Ties 

"Russian Prime Minister-designate Sergei Kiriyenko, in response to a
parliamentarian's question, denied on Friday he had ever had any contact
with the U.S.-based Church of Scientology." ­ Reuters, April 10, 1998 
(Russian President Boris Yeltsin is in his room packing for his trip to
Japan where he will meet, informally, with Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto. Acting Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko is sitting on the bed
looking dejected ­ or perhaps, rejected.) 
Yeltsin: (humming) Dum de dum dum…shirts, socks, ties ­ ha! No ties!
(throws them aside) This is a no neckties summit! (looks at Kiriyenko)
Speaking of ties, Sergei Vladilenovich, I've been meaning to ask you about
these Scientology ties of yours. Is that one you're wearing now? 
Kiriyenko: Not ties as in neckties, Boris Nicholayovich! Ties as in
links, connections, alliances! And anyway, they don't exist! 
Yeltsin: (continuing his packing) If they don't exist, Sergei, then why
are those Duma deputies asking about them? 
Kiryenko: Because they don't LIKE me, Boris Nicholayovich! You know that
­ they voted against me again today. 
Yeltsin: Maybe it's your ties they don't like, Sergei ­ why don't you buy
some new ones? Or here, have some of mine! (tosses a few around Kiriyenko's
neck) 
Kiriyenko: Not neckties, Boris Nicholayovich! Connections! They think I'm
a Scientologist! 
Yeltsin: But I told them you were a banker, Sergei. I was very clear. 
Kiriyenko: A Scientologist! Like John Travolta! You know, from "Grease!" 
Yeltsin: I don't know any Greeks named Travolta, Sergei, I think you're
confused. (Holds up papers)
Hmm, the deeds to the Southern Kuriles ­ I don't think I'll be needing those. 
Kiryenko: But I thought you were going to give them back? 
Yeltsin: You know, I've been thinking about it Sergei, but it seems to me
that they fall under the category of "World War II booty" and the Duma
won't let me return any of that. 
Kiriyenko: But that's ART, Boris Nicholayovich! Not islands! 


Yeltsin: (pompously) Isn't Mother Nature an artist, Sergei Vladilenovich?
And would that not make her creations works of art? Anyway, my good
friend…ah…my good friend the prime minister of Japan and I have agreed not
to discuss these islands. 
Kiriyenko: (suddenly struck with an idea) Boris Nicholayovich, can I come
with you? 
Yeltsin: What? 
Kiriyenko: Can I come with you? To Japan? 
Yeltsin: No. 
Kiriyenko: (kicking his feet against the bed) But why not? I want to go
to Japan! Why can't I go to Japan? 
Yeltsin: Because you must stay here and be acting prime minister! 
Kiriyenko: But I could act like a prime minister in Japan! I could get
some tips from your good friend Hashimoto! 
Yeltsin: I don't want you to act like a Japanese prime minister, Sergei,
I want you to act like a Russian prime minister. 
Kiriyenko: Like Victor Chernomyrdin? With his Gazprom ties? 
Yeltsin: (stops packing) Gazprom ties? What Gazprom ties? I never saw
Victor wearing a Gazprom tie! He's a very conservative dresser, Sergei.
He'd as soon wear a Mickey Mouse tie! 
Kiriyenko: (sliding off bed and heading out of room) Never mind, Boris
Nicholayovich, never mind… 
**********

#5
Moscow Tribune
April 20, 1998
Russians protest against Western food 
By Igor Zaslonov 

A meeting in support of domestic producers protesting against low
quality food imports was held by Moscow students and activists of the
International Green Party on Wednesday outside "Sedmoi Continent"
supermarket in front of the State Duma building. 
"I'm not calling for the buying of inferior quality Russian goods,"
State Duma Deputy Vladimir Lysenko said, "but for displaying patriotic
feelings by buying those Russian goods which can compete with their Western
counterparts." 
According to official statistics, two thirds of all food consumed in
Russia is imported. All the speakers claimed that Russian-made milk
products, candy bars, juices, beer and vodka are on a par with foreign-made
items. 
To demonstrate their patriotic feelings they consumed some of the
home-grown items whilst posing before numerous cameras, and invited
journalists to join them. 
"The problem is in the heads of our people who still hold the Soviet
attitude that imported goods are better," Markov told The Moscow Tribune.
"Many people still ignore domestic goods although the situation has
fundamentally changed, and the quality of goods made abroad is often worse
than that of home produce," Markov said. 
Sergei Markov, the coordinator of the meeting, welcomed everybody to
"wash off the sin of consuming ecologically dirty western products" by
symbolically destroying samples. The activists crumbled several candy bars
and poured a can of Tuborg beer in a trash can. 
The tiny crowd that gathered outside the respectable store in the center
of Moscow was armed with painstakingly made placards that proclaimed: "Our
Generation Chooses Our Goods!" and "Domestic Goods Today -- Prosperous
Country Tomorrow!" The Russian Green Party slogans, although
environmentally orientated, also declaimed against "the dominant influence
of western goods." 
"We don't want to say that all the imported goods are of poor quality,
but much of the stuff marked 'Made In USA' produced in Turkish or Romanian
villages and doesn't meet any quality test requirements," said Roman
Terensky, one of the green activists. 



********

#6
Christian Science Monitor
APRIL 21, 1998 
[for personal use only]
Russians Find Becoming A Latvian Isn't Easy
Judith Matloff 

RIGA, LATVIA 
Dmitri carries a 9-mm pistol issued to him by the state to help maintain 
law and order. The veteran police officer, who declined to be identified 
further, was born in Latvia, and his father was an official in the first 
independent government in 1991.
Dmitri, however, is not a citizen, and therein lies a bitter tale. Like 
661,000 other members of the Russian-speaking ethnic minority of this 
tiny Baltic nation, he was not automatically naturalized when the 
country broke free of Soviet rule. He can take a tough test to become 
Latvian - one try only - but worries about losing his job if he fails.
"I've worked eight years in the police. I voted in the referendum for 
independence. So for goodness sake, why do I have to ask for 
citizenship?" he wonders.
Dmitri's quandary is not just one man's problem. Latvia's insistence on 
creating obstacles for one-third of its population to become citizens 
has provoked threats of Russian economic sanctions - and blocks its bid 
to join the European Union (EU).
But for the first time, there are signs that the government has realized 
it must accommodate its giant neighbor Russia and the West.
Under threats by Moscow to cease the key transport of oil through Latvia 
and stop buying its agricultural products, Latvia's Cabinet last week 
approved proposals to ease the citizenship process and cancel age limits 
for aliens seeking to be naturalized. Government officials expect 
parliament to approve the plan and for more changes to follow.
"Citizenship is a sensitive point in any country. But now, even the 
nationalists realize that the time is ripe for changes," says foreign 
affairs spokesman Andrejs Pildegovics.
Although they say even more changes are needed if Latvia wants to join 
the EU, Western diplomats have a certain degree of sympathy for Latvia's 
obsession with protecting the cultural identity of its 2.6 million 
citizens. It has existed as a sovereign state for only 30 of the past 
700 years, due to successive occupations by Teutonic knights, Swedes, 
Poles, the Soviets in 1940, the Nazis from 1941 to '44, and then by the 
Soviets again.
A few Western diplomats go as far as to forgive the elevated status of 
local veterans of the Nazi SS. About 80 percent of the Latvians who 
served in the SS were conscripted. Although war criminals were among the 
veterans, they are generally viewed sympathetically by Latvians as 
liberators from Soviet rule.
"It's not like there are rampant human rights abuses or that this is a 
state seething with Nazis," says one Western diplomat. "But having moved 
toward free market democracy and accountable government, Riga now has to 
prove that it can resolve the citizenship problem to be a full-fledged 
member of Europe."
Western observers have less sympathy for Russian politicians, who have 
whipped up anti-Latvian sentiment at home. The Russian press exaggerated 
incidents last month in which elderly ethnic Russian pensioners were 


pushed - but not hurt - by police during an illegal march and Latvian 
officials participated in an annual SS veterans' parade.
The Russian government's threat of sanctions was a useful distraction, 
after President Boris Yeltsin sacked his entire government March 23. 
"It's a great diversionary tactic in Russia, to whip up nationalist 
sentiment," says the Western diplomat.
Concerned about defusing the crisis before it blows up further, the 
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has sent a special 
envoy to Latvia twice in as many weeks.
In addition, President Clinton wrote to his Latvian counterpart, Guntis 
Ulmanis, April 10. Mr. Clinton indicated that US sympathies lie with 
Latvia, although noting "work remains to be done" on the citizenship 
question.
"The disruption of normal commercial and political relations in northern 
Europe is in no one's interest," Clinton wrote. "We stress with Russia 
that intemperate talk of threats or sanctions creates a environment that 
can frustrate progress."

**********

#7
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
21 April 1998

WOULD DUMA DISSOLUTION BE AN ECONOMIC DISASTER FOR RUSSIA? Although the
belief that a presidential dissolution of the Duma will have serious
economic consequences seems widespread, such a view is not necessarily
consistent either with current trends in the Russian economy or with the
general patterns of economic recovery in the CIS and East European economies. 

Many of the concerns about the economic consequences of the Duma's
dissolution focus on the reaction of investors, both foreign and domestic,
to the heightened political uncertainty associated with such a development.
But overall investment spending in Russia continues to be weak, even as the
Russian economy appears to be bottoming out. The slow (0.4 percent) growth
in GDP Goskomstat reported last year was driven by consumption: The volumes
of retail trade and paid services increased by some 2 and 3 percent,
respectively, after declining by some 4 and 6 percent in 1996. By contrast,
investment spending fell last year by some 5 percent (TACIS's Russian
Economic Trends January 1998 Supplement). These trends seem to be continuing
this year: Fixed investment during the first quarter was down 7.1 percent
over the first quarter of 1997, despite retail trade growth of 3.7 percent
and an essentially flat GDP during this time. (Interfax, April 16) 

Moreover, while political uncertainty has not helped Russia's finances,
neither Yeltsin's dismissal of the Chernomyrdin government last month nor
the lasting effects of last year's East Asian financial crisis have pushed
Russia out of international capital markets. As Central Bank President
Sergei Dubinin pointed out in Washington last week, Russia was able to sell
1.25 billion Deutsche marks in Eurobonds on March 24, immediately after
Chernomyrdin's dismissal. (Interfax-AFI, April 13) Likewise, serious
reductions in IMF lending to Russia are not likely, for political reasons. 

In any case, investment spending is generally a lagging indicator in
economic recoveries, both in general and for transition economies in


particular. Economic recoveries in other CIS and Eastern European countries
have generally started thanks to growing consumption and (moderate) fiscal
deficits, not to investment. Prospects for increased investment spending in
Russia may therefore not have a great deal of short-term macroeconomic
significance. The Russian economy may continue to disappoint, but the Duma's
dissolution need not make things worse.

********

#8
Poll: Incumbent Krasnoyarsk Governor May Beat Lebed 

KRASNOYARSK, April 15 (Interfax-Eurasia) -- Incumbent Governor of
Krasnoyarsk territory Valeriy Zubov may defeat former Russian Security
Council Secretary Aleksandr Lebed if the two men face off in a second round
of the coming gubernatorial elections, shows a poll conducted by the East
Siberian Economics and Statistics Institute.
The poll, held among 2,100 residents of various town and villages in
the Krasnoyarsk territory, shows that 50% of the region's residents see
themselves as supporters of Zubov and 35% of the region's residents support
Lebed.
If there is a runoff, 41% of respondents would vote for Zubov and 26% 
for Lebed, the poll showed. The rest of the respondents said that in this
case they would ignore the second round of the elections or vote against
both candidates.
Representatives of Zubov's electoral headquarters conceded that the
incumbent governor's popularity rating had decreased from 55% on March 6 to
50% on April 6 while Lebed' rating had risen from 30% to 35%. Zubov and
Lebed are seen as the major hopefuls in the coming elections on April 26,
far ahead of other candidates.
To win in the first round, a candidate will have to collect more than
50% of the vote. To win in the runoff, a candidate needs to receive a
simple majority of the vote.
Meanwhile, Lebed's supporters held a separate poll. They said that
34% of residents of the city of Krasnoyarsk would vote for Lebed and 24%
for the current governor.
This poll involved 3,000 respondents.

********

For more articles from The Moscow Times, check out their website at


www.moscowtimes.ru

#9
Moscow Times
Tuesday, April 21, 1998 
CONFESSIONS OF A RUSSOPHILE: A Culture of Disobedience 
By Jean MacKenzie 

Nothing is certain in life, they say, except death and taxes. Well in 
Russia, even that truism is not necessarily so. Death, of course, is 
still a constant threat, but the taxman seems to be a very occasional 
and capricious presence. 
"Russia is a much freer country than America," laughed a colleague of 
mine, Sasha. "We are free not to pay taxes, not to obey traffic laws. 
Not to obey laws at all, really." Sasha's robust cynicism is an odd fit 
with his background: He did time in the old days for distributing 
samizdat, but this does not keep him from making a little money in the 
new Russia by working with the Communist Party. 
Sasha was amused that foreigners, myself included, seemed to be taken in 
by the "pay taxes and sleep soundly" ad offensive launched on Russian 
television in the weeks before April 1. 
"Do you really think the sight of a bunch of clowns is going to scare a 
Russian into handing over his money?" he asked. "I tried to pay taxes 


once, the company I was working for insisted on it. But when I went to 
the tax office, they looked at me as if I were crazy." 
When I first returned to Russia, in January, I loved the brightly 
colored billboards, with pictures of expensive cars, luxury boats, 
exotic vacation locales. 
"If you like to have a good time, learn to love paying taxes," ran the 
caption, in my very loose translation. 
I had to laugh -- I knew that campaign would never work. Then came the 
television spots, threatening tax-dodging Russians with everything from 
impotence to prison. This seemed to have a bit more punch -- although 
Russia's tax police have a long way to go before they have the dread 
cachet of, say, the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. 
I'm not sure what the final figures were. Last I heard, President Boris 
Yeltsin was boasting that the number of Russians paying their proper 
taxes had quadrupled -- to 5 million. In a country of 150 million, this 
did not seem too impressive, but I guess it's all relative. 
But I must confess that I am a bit relieved that the Russian penchant 
for anarchy continues to flourish. This comes as no surprise to anyone 
who has spent more than a minute in a moving vehicle on the streets of 
Moscow. 
People who blithely ignore "do not enter" signs, drive on sidewalks and 
park their cars in traffic lanes are unlikely to be cowed by a few 
regulations. 
Russians seem to have a healthy disrespect for the law, acquired over 
centuries of repression. 
I think it is a self-protection mechanism that stemmed from a feeling 
that the law was so arbitrary that you had just as great a chance of 
getting into trouble whether you did anything bad or not. 
Someone, I think it was Alexander Herzen, said that the severity of 
Russia's laws was compensated for by the fact that absolutely no one 
pays any attention to them. Herzen does not work for the tax police -- 
he was a 19th century writer and philosopher. 
Ordinary Russians put it more simply. "If it's forbidden, but you really 
want it, then it's allowed." It sounds better in Russian, of course, as 
most things do. 
This attitude may have stood the Russians in good stead in tsarist 
times, or during the harsh years of Soviet rule (aside from landing more 
than a few of them in prison, or worse), but it seems a poor premise for 
the development of a responsible, democratic society. 
On the other hand, if we wanted a responsible, democratic society, we 
could all move to Switzerland. Herzen did. Of course he was bored stiff, 
and set off for untidier pastures within a short time. 
Perhaps this age-old reluctance to submit to law and order helps account 
for some of the brash, in-your-face quality of the new Russia. 
I sometimes get the feeling that the country is being run by school kids 
who have somehow gained access to the principal's office and are having 
a whale of a time with the loudspeaker and the cash box. 
I do not mean to suggest that the problems of a huge, powerful, cultured 
land like Russia can be boiled down to "Fast Times at Ridgemont High." 
And I am tired of people trying to explain Russia's glitches and 


excesses as adolescent growing pains. But if the past 1,000 years are 
anything to go by, it will be quite a while before graduation. 

*********

#10
Date: Tue, 21 Apr 1998 09:08:39 -0400
From: Albert Weeks <AWeeks1@compuserve.com>
Subject: ABC Report in JRL #2158

I viewed the ABC-TV report on the U.S.-Russian missile status (JRL
#2158). But like the article on the danger of Earth's collision with
meteors or
comet fragments in the current (June) issue of Harvard Observatory's
monthly 'Sky
& Telescope' magazine, writers and commentators on this topic do not draw 
conclusions as to what to do about such threats--including the tangible 
one of accidental launches of ICBMs from Russia or deliberate ones from
other states. This is a world, after all, of proliferating missiles and
nuclear
warheads. 
"Armoropobia," pacifism, or passivity are not the answer.
Few publicists--at least in the mainstream air and print media or in
much of 
Academe---care to remember that we have the means to deploy "off the
shelf," workable anti-missile defense that also would double as an
anti-meteorite
shield--that is, if the will were there to deploy it. 
Meanwhile, polls show that Americans do not realize that we have
absolutely 
no defense against these threats. That for the money spent annually on,
say, potato chips and soda pop, the United States could put in place
space-borne
sensors and, yes, those dreadful (?) "battle-stations" that could deflect,
destroy, or
otherwise eliminate outer- and cis-terrestrial space intruders.
While 'The Washington Post' has recently, if slowly, come around
editorially to recognizing the danger and the solution to this threat,
most other
prestigious papers 
(such as 'The New York Times' or 'Christian Science Monitor'), despite
the efforts of some of us published op-ed contributors, or "hawks" as
we're dubbed, 
continue to cling to the bogey of "Star Wars." They buy the myth that such
defense is not feasible 
or "air-tight." They claim that it wouldn't be nice to pull out of the
1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
But treaties do become antiquated. Old agreements may be, and many times
have been legitimately 
abrogated (on the established international law principle of "rebus sic
stantibus").
Meanwhile, the present Administration in Washington supports with
minimal funding
merely a ground-based system of such defense. It claims that the U.S. must
adhere to the 27-year-old U.S.-Soviet ABM Treaty at a time when
missile-defense
technology is rapidly proceeding apace and outpacing the treaty. For its
part, 
Russia continues to upgrade its own, permissible ABM site protecting
Moscow. It
still could rejuvenate, under some successor regime, its advanced effort
to deploy 
a border-to-border 
missile defense system (PKO) of the type it actually partially deployed in
the '70s, as 
later admitted by former Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, in patent
violation of the ABM Treaty.
Yes, as canvassed by ABC-News, Yeltsin did come three years ago
within minutes
of launching a retaliatory strike--against whom, is not clear--when
Russian PVO (Air Defense) 


detected the threatening trajectory of the U.S.-built Norwegian test rocket
pointing at Russia. 
And, yes, astronomers, such as the late Carl Sagan (an erstwhile opponent
of "Star Wars"), 
did warn (in his article in 'Parade' magazine sevetal years ago) of the
threat of collisions with meteors and cometary fragments.
So, then, what are we doing about this in a serious, concerted way?
Nothing, really.
And this is what should be addressed by those, like the editors at ABC and
'Sky & Telescope,' who do not carry the story of Russian, et al., missiles
and outer-space
threats to its obvious conclusion.

*********

#11
NATO Expanding Questions Remain 
By Walter R. Mears
AP Special Correspondent
April 21, 1998
An AP News Analysis 

DALLAS (AP) -- Whether it is the risky blunder critics foresee or the
stride for stability the White House promises, NATO expansion to add three
Eastern European nations seems effectively settled. 
It would be a major change with relatively minor debate. 
Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan is trying to prevent that, saying that to
extend the Western military alliance toward the frontiers of Russia risks
``the catastrophe of nuclear war.'' 
Strong words, the strongest yet in what has been desultory debate on an
issue that has drawn scant public attention. Moynihan and a bloc of Senate
allies -- no more than 20 at this point -- are trying to block ratification
of the expansion President Clinton advocates. 
To do it, they'd need 34 votes in the Senate, when it acts, probably
late this month or next. 
``As of now there is not much doubt as to the outcome,'' the New York
senator said. ``This could change.'' 
Hence his grim words in an address to the 150th anniversary luncheon of
The Associated Press on Monday: 
``If we do go ahead, we do have to recognize that without having
intended it, we may have raised the prospect of nuclear war to the most
intense point it has reached since the beginning of the Nuclear Age.'' 
Obviously, the Russians don't like the expansion, and the administration
doesn't pretend otherwise. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said
Moscow's concerns are being handled through diplomatic consultations. 
But Moynihan said a weakened Russia could resort to nuclear weapons for
lack of conventional military forces to repeal any future actions Moscow
deems a threat to the existence of the Russian Federation. 
Clinton champions the admission of Poland, Hungary and the Czech
Republic as a step that can help ``bring Europe together not by force of
arms but by possibilities of peace.'' The administration pushed the idea to
adoption by the alliance. 
``A larger NATO will make America safer by expanding the area of Europe
where wars simply do not happen,'' Albright says. 
But Moscow doesn't see it that way, regarding the extension of the
Western alliance to the borders of what was the Soviet Union. NATO was
created to enforce the line against any attempt to Moscow to move west,
beyond what were then its satellites in Eastern Europe. In the expanded
alliance, extending past the old Iron Curtain, the commitment remains that
an attack against any one NATO state would be considered an attack against
them all. 
The alliance created 49 years ago put the front line of U.S. defense
into Europe as a bulwark against the Soviet empire. Now that front line
would be extended into a region that was part of that Cold War communist
bloc. 


The Senate ratified the Atlantic treaty 82-13 that summer, after three
weeks of debate. 
Since then, NATO has been expanded from 12 nations to 16. ``Each time,
the alliance became stronger,'' Albright said. She said this expansion
``will have the same invigorating effect.'' 
She said the quest for NATO membership has led to the settlement of
border disputes and other issues by the nations that want in. She said the
threats in the region now ``are instability, ethnic cleansing, disputes
over borders, a sense of insecurity.'' 
But the expansion stirs a sense of insecurity in Moscow, and that's
where Moynihan sees danger. 
George F. Kennan, diplomat, scholar, historian and the architect of the
U.S. policy of containment of the old Soviet Union, says expansion will
inflame nationalist, militaristic and anti-Western attitudes in Russia, and
could adversely affect democracy there. 
Albright argues the reverse, saying the choice is whether to validate
American leadership of a new NATO to deter new threats, or to ``leave
Europe divided as if the Iron Curtain were still in place.'' 
Sen. John Warner, R-Va., opposing expansion but seeing the likelihood,
wants an amendment to prevent more NATO additions for at least three years;
there are other Eastern European states waiting for an opening. 
Clinton opposes that restriction. ``It would fracture NATO's open-door
consensus,'' he said, although it hasn't been ajar for a while. 
This expansion would be the first addition to the NATO roster since 1982. 
And a dangerous one, in Moynihan's judgment. He said if the Senate vote
goes as expected, the debate should at least alert the nation and the
political establishment to the risk involved. 

*********

#12
FEATURE - Russian armed forces in critical shape
By Martin Nesirky 

MOSCOW, April 20 (Reuters) - Beneath an unwieldy nuclear umbrella, Russia's
military is struggling to stay on its feet. 
Put simply, if there had been a war last year, the world's largest country
simply would not have been ready. Ask Marshal Igor Sergeyev -- he should know.
``To draw up a budget like Mozambique but demand armed forces like the
United
States is not entirely logical,'' the acting defence minister said this month
with uncharacteristic venom and an unaccustomed flourish of frank facts and
figures. 
Apart from the elite Strategic Nuclear Forces and some airborne army
troops,
he told a military meeting, ``there were virtually no units which were combat
ready'' in 1997. 
Defence experts say the picture is no better now, a year into President
Boris
Yeltsin's much-vaunted but criticised reform of what remains of the vast
Soviet military machine. 
Planes do not fly, tanks rust, sailors go hungry and morale sags for
want of
training, a sense of post-Cold War purpose and plain old cash. Rivalries
between Russia's myriad forces, draft dodging, drug-taking and shooting sprees
often make headlines. 
There is no need to hit the panic button just yet. Few are predicting total
collapse or a coup. But things look grim. 
``The situation is critical,'' said Russian defence analyst Pavel
Felgenhauer.


``It's the convergence of economic crisis, unorganised demilitarisation and an
unprecedented morale crisis in the armed forces.'' 
Sergeyev has certainly helped push the pace of change and cuts in forces
but
is short of funds, a common problem for Russia's creaking economy. 
Only a third of the military's budget allocation was shelled out by
Moscow in
the first quarter, the marshal said. All but a 10th of that went just on
sustaining the forces rather than buying new equipment or funding the reforms.
Russia's armed forces have been allocated around 82 billion roubles ($13.4
billion), a whopping 16 percent of the overall 1998 budget of 500 billion
roubles but plainly not enough. As any manager knows, ``downsizing'' costs
money. 
It is doubtful that a new government with good intentions, replacing the
one
Yeltsin sacked last month, can find more cash as it tries to make Russia's
overall economic reforms work. 
Those people forced to leave the military, recently or after the Soviet
withdrawal from eastern Europe, often have no job and no home, although
Western countries provide some training and fund housing. Those who remain
receive wages months late. 
``It's a real burden that leaves us no chance to move,'' said Sergeyev,
who is
committed to cutting troop numbers by 500,000 to 1.2 million this year on the
road to an even smaller, all-professional force with up-to-date equipment. 
That road is strewn with political as well as financial obstacles. 

NUCLEAR STRATEGY UNDER FIRE 

``With the well-known weakening of conventional forces, the role of the
nuclear deterrence factor increases,'' missile chief Colonel-General Vladimir
Yakovlev told the Krasnaya Zvezda armed forces newspaper last month. 
Sergeyev, Yakovlev's predecessor, has also made no bones about the
tactic of
preserving the nuclear umbrella while other forces reform -- critics would say
crumble -- underneath. 
It is a highly controversial approach. 
``Cutting back an army is always unpopular,'' said Felgenhauer. ``But
some of
the moves Sergeyev is making in destroying conventional forces and keeping the
nuclear option are of course wrong.'' 
Charles Dick, an expert on Russian defence who heads the British-based
Conflict Studies Centre, agrees the potential ramifications are serious. 
``To deal with problems like Chechnya with nuclear weapons does not seem
to me
to be very sensible,'' he said, referring to the rebel region where
conventional forces were humiliated in a war against separatists. ``It's a
disastrous policy.'' 
Russia's atomic forces -- land- and submarine-based missiles and bombs on
aircraft -- remain relatively well-funded and disciplined. The head of U.S.
Strategic Command visited last year and said he was satisfied with Russian
nuclear security. 
If nuclear forces are in good shape, what about the rest? 
Take the air force, which is being merged with air defence forces. 
Sergeyev said half of the aircraft cannot fly. Russian military experts say
pilots spend more time sweeping runways than in the air and some work part-
time as cabbies. 


``Fast jet pilots fly an average of 25 hours a year. The minimum
required to
maintain flying skills is 120 hours,'' said Dick. ``They are more a danger to
themselves than the enemy.'' 
Try the army. 
Unlike the air force and navy, it has been reluctant to cut back on unit
numbers as a way to tackle undermanning that stems from troop cuts and a
conscription system that has all but broken down despite tougher new rules. 
``There are some units where there are as many officers as there are men,''
Dick said. ``Outside the airborne forces there's really not a lot that is
worth having. 
``Morale is terribly low,'' he said, noting that bullying of young
conscripts
and the fear of being caught up again in a Chechnya-style war was widespread. 
``The only people who come in now are those who are too stupid to avoid
military service,'' said Dick. 
In the navy, young recruits go short of food while reports of corruption
among
senior officers persist, particularly in the Pacific Fleet, a world away from
Moscow. 

OUTLOOK BLEAK BUT NO NEED TO PANIC YET 

While some Western analysts construct doomsday theories of impending
collapse
and regional upsets, few say the armed forces are about to implode, mutiny or
stage a coup. 
``The army is a brittle instrument. Any attempt to use it would break it,''
said Dick, noting Yeltsin's 1993 assault on the Soviet-era parliament was
carried out largely by officers drawn from all around Moscow because ordinary
soldiers refused. 
But between the extremes of discipline and disorder there lurk many
concerns. 
``You simply cannot talk of the Russian armed forces as a coherent defence
force,'' said Dmitry Trenin, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment in
Moscow. 
Dick said the Kremlin, despite its reservations about the North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation's eastward expansion, decided the main threat to Russia
was internal rather than external and therefore Interior Ministry forces had
until recently been better funded. 
Interior troops and border guards face the same cash squeeze now. Both have
come under fire from Yeltsin, who complained the border guards chief even
wanted submarines. 
` `This will never happen,'' Yeltsin said. ``I won't stand for it.'' 
Against this backdrop of risks and challenges for Russia and European
security, analysts say there is an important shift. 
Last month, Yeltsin appointed Andrei Kokoshin, a civilian, to head a
beefed-up
Security Council, incorporating the chief military inspectorate and the
advisory Defence Council. Its remit is to coordinate all defence and
intelligence agencies. 
The Security Council, now covering similar ground to the U.S. national
security adviser, is under Yeltsin's chairmanship. 
The Kremlin said Kokoshin's appointment to such a prominent position was to
better coordinate military reform. He may well have the brief to try to stamp
out inter-agency differences. 
``Kokoshin is the man to watch,'' said Dick. ``He is going to be a defining
figure -- if he is allowed to be.'' 
($ - 6.141 Russian Roubles) 



*********

#13
New York Times
April 21, 1998
[for personal use only]
NATO Opponents Vocal, Diverse and Active
By ERIC SCHMITT

WASHINGTON -- Ben & Jerry's is against expanding NATO. So is Phyllis
Schlafly, the arch-conservative activist. So is Sam Nunn, the retired
Georgia Democrat who was the Senate's most authoritative voice on national
security matters. 
From left, right and center -- and all points in between on the
political compass -- an unlikely coalition of arms control advocates,
business leaders, United Nations-bashers and foreign-policy experts have
launched a grass-roots campaign to derail the addition of Hungary, Poland
and the Czech Republic to the military alliance. 
A business group headed by Ben Cohen, the chairman of Ben & Jerry's,
aired a 30-second commercial on several network talk shows on Sunday
warning that NATO expansion would alienate Russia and rekindle cold war
tensions. The same group took out a full-page ad in The New York Times
Monday with the headline, "Hey, Let's Scare the Russians!" 
The right-to-left coalition has set up "electronic town meetings" on
talk-radio shows in more than 20 cities, including broadcasts in Raleigh,
N.C., Monday and in Concord, N.H., on Tuesday. 
Opponents of NATO expansion know they face an uphill struggle trying to
reverse the tide of support for NATO expansion in the Senate, which is
expected to resume debate on the issue later this week. Two-thirds of the
Senate -- 67 of 100 senators -- must approve the expansion. 
"We need 34 converts, and that's a long way to go," said Sen. Robert
Smith, a New Hampshire Republican who has championed the fight against NATO
expansion. 
Indeed, administration officials say they are confident they have the
votes now to win, but acknowledge there is always some tightening up as a
final floor vote approaches, and Senators hone in on the issue. 
"There's been no softening, in fact we've been strengthening the vote,"
said one senior government official who said administration aides "worked
hard" over the two-week congressional recess to coax and cajole
fence-sitters. 
But the loose coalition seems to have picked up steam after the NATO
debate and final vote was postponed until after the recess by Sen. Trent
Lott of Mississippi, the majority leader, who supports enlarging the
alliance. 
Groups as different as the libertarian Cato Institute and the liberal
Council for a Liveable World had waging individual campaigns against NATO
expansion for nearly a year and recently sought strength in numbers with a
coordinated effort. 
"There was a convergence of concern," said Mark Sommer, director of the
Mainstream Media Project, an educational organization in Arcata, Calif.,
that helped produce the hour-long radio call-in programs. 
"The town meetings are a vehicle for shaming the Senate to perform one
of its highest constitutional obligations, and to revive a democratic
culture that doesn't talk about issues like these at the dinner table
anymore," said Sommer. 
Liberals and many business leaders, including Cohen, voice concern about
the costs of NATO expansion -- of up to $125 billion over 10 years,
depending on various assumptions -- and about antagonizing Russia. 
"Ben's belief is that NATO's expansion will soak up billions of
taxpayers dollars that could be better spent on our domestic agenda, such
as education," said Gary Ferdman, executive director of Business Leaders
for Sensible Priorities, an educational and lobbying organization that
raised $150,000 for the television and newspaper ads. Cohen is president of
the organization. 


The newspaper ad warns, "Let's take NATO and expand it toward Russia's
very borders. We'll assure the Russians we come in peace." The ad
continues, "It's the same feeling of peace and security Americans would
have if Russia were in a military alliance with Canada and Mexico, armed to
the teeth, and excluding the United States. We'd all sleep better then,
right?" 
Many conservatives in the coalition fear that expanding NATO will dilute
the military alliance and subject the United States to myriad new military
commitments. 
"It would obligate us to go war to defend the borders in Eastern
Europe," said Mrs. Schlafly, who founded the 80,000-member Eagle Forum. "We
don't think that's an American responsibility. We see this as one Bosnia
after another." 

********

#14
Financial Times (UK)
21 April 1998
[for personal use only]
RUSSIA: Kurile islands dispute reignited
By Chrystia Freeland in Moscow and Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo

Russia yesterday rebuffed Japanese reports that Moscow was considering
relinquishing sovereignty over the disputed Kurile Islands, reigniting a
conflict that has marred relations between the Pacific neighbours for more
than 50 years.
Japanese newspapers yesterday reported a potential breakthrough in the
dispute over the four islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan,
which were seized by the Soviet Union in 1945, an occupation that Tokyo
views as illegitimate.
Citing anonymous government sources, Japanese dailies said that during a
weekend summit meeting with Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Ryutaro
Hashimoto, the Japanese prime minister, had proposed drawing a new border
between Russia and Japan north of the four disputed islands.
Such a plan - which would in effect recognise Japanese sovereignty over
the islands - would be a huge coup for Tokyo. But Russian officials
immediately denied they were considering ending control over the sparsely
populated but strategic territories.
"Russia has a constitution in which the situation on. .. inviolability
of its lands is set out and the president is the guarantor of these
principles," Sergei Yastrzhembsky, the Kremlin spokesman, said.
Japanese officials also refused to confirm press reports of the bold new
proposal from Tokyo. "This is nothing more than pure speculation," Minoru
Tamba, deputy vice minister at Japan's Foreign Ministry, said yesterday.
The speculation was sparked by the mysterious announcement over the
weekend that, during the Russo-Japanese summit meeting, Mr Hashimoto had
put forward a new initiative for resolving the conflict over the islands.
Neither side officially offered any details of the plan, which Mr
Yeltsin described as a "serious new proposal" towards the two nations'
stated goal of signing a peace treaty by 2000.
Such a deal would be a landmark in relations between the two countries,
which have yet formally to end their second world war hostilities, but it
will be achieved only if the islands dispute is resolved.
If the Japanese newspaper reports of the proposal are accurate, the
Japanese plan does not make specific reference to ownership of the islands
themselves, in an effort to avoid antagnising Russian nationalists.
Japan, in turn, would recognise Russian administrative authority over
the four islands for a designated period during which the two sides could
co-operate in developing the islands.


**********