February  24, 1998  
This Date's Issues:    2076   • 2077 • 

Johnson's Russia List
#2077
24 February 1998
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. Hamburg's Die Woche: Interview with Andrei Kortunov
on US-Russia relations and Iraq.
2. Reuters: Yeltsin, cabinet gear up for "tough" session.
3. Reuters: Russian government must rule on tsar bones-Yeltsin.
4. Reuters: Russians mark army day but glory days over.
5. Moscow Times: Jean MacKenzie, CONFESSIONS OF A RUSSOPHILE: 
Russia Still Wacky to Core.
6. John Helmer (RFE/RL): Russia: IMF Tries To Force Breakup of 
State Rail System.
7. Washington Times: James Morrison, Lukin on the line.
8. Madrid's El Mundo: Aide Says Chernomyrdin Will Never Stand 
Against Yeltsin.
9. Itar-Tass: Nemtsov Says Will Not Run in Presidential Elections.
10. The Economist: General discontent. (Lebed).
11. Argumenty i Fakty: Georgia: Newspaper Views Possible US Hand 
in Attempt on Shevardnadze.
12. Rossiyskiye Vesti: Local Improvements Seen Winning Votes for 
Reformers.
13. Moscow Times: Bill Fick, WEB WATCH: Russian Government Online.
14. Interfax: Duma Approves Bill on Russia's Territorial Integrity.]

********

#1
Kortunov: Russia's Position in Iraq Conflict 'Favorable' 

Hamburg Die Woche in German
20 February 1998
[translation for personal use only]
Interview with Andrey Kortunov, director of the Russian
Science Foundation in Moscow, by Andrzej Rybak; place and date not
given: "The Disruptive Action Is Pure Show"

[Rybak] Russia and the United States are clashing more and more
often. Do we have to fear the return of the Cold War?
[Kortunov] Those who say that exaggerate. Cold War requires
ideological and nuclear confrontation. We do not have that today.
[Rybak] Still, old alliances are being revived, based on the motto:
"America's enemy is my friend"...
[Kortunov] Russia is trying to prove to the world and itself that it
is an independent actor in international politics. We have interests of
our own, and must learn to stand behind them.
[Rybak] And that means cooperation with Iraqi dictators?
[Kortunov] I do not have the impression that Russia supports the
regime in Baghdad unconditionally. We only think that one must not resort
to military means too soon. By the way, we are not the only ones who hold
that view: France and NATO member Italy share this view. In essence,
Russia's and the US' positions are mostly identical. Russia is as little
interested in lifting the sanctions against Iraq as Washington is. Iraqi
oil on the world market would cut prices and, therefore, drastically reduce
our export sales. The disruptive action from our Duma is pure show.
[Rybak] Why then is President Yeltsin warning of a third world war? 
[Kortunov] The Americans are putting us under great pressure. The
Clinton Administration is spreading rumors that Moscow is helping Iraq
produce bacteriological and chemical weapons. US media started an
authentic anti-Russian campaign. Yet, it is at least doubtful whether
Washington's policy toward Iraq is appropriate.
[Rybak] Why?
[Kortunov] The United States are duping the entire Arab world. They
are risking the disintegration of Iraq, in which nobody is interested. A
US military strike will consolidate Iraq and strengthen Saddam Husayn.
[Rybak] Still, with such belligerent language, Russia is also
maneuvering itself into a dead-end street: the Kremlin would have to react
to US air attacks -- or it will make itself ridiculous and look like a
paper tiger.
[Kortunov] Nobody will risk peace for Iraq; there are enough
pragmatic people in Moscow to make sure this will not happen. Nevertheless,
Russia is in a favorable position: If a diplomatic solution is achieved,
our prestige in the Arab countries will be boosted greatly. If CNN shows
the Iraqi victims of US bombs, we are in a morally good position -- after
all, we wanted to prevent this bloodshed! Russian Foreign Minister
Primakov is playing the role of peacemaker. He spent many years in the
Middle East, and he thinks that he is able to achieve more there than Mrs.
Albright.
[Rybak] Many Arab countries are dependent on US financial aid. What
has Moscow to offer?
[Kortunov] Moscow could be America's counterweight, and its presence
in the Arab countries could offer them more flexibility vis-a-vis
Washington. The time is good because the US-mediated Israeli peace talks
are stagnating. Primakov is trying to capitalize on this defeat.
[Rybak] Washington is also upset about Russian-Iranian rapprochement.
Justifiably so?
[Kortunov] Washington's policy toward Iran is neither wise nor
rational. The domestic-policy situation in Iran has changed, but
Washington does not want to recognize that. Iran is our neighbor on the
Caspian Sea, and good relations are of strategic importance for us. Moscow
has, therefore, offered the Americans a horse trade: Russia gives in on the
Iraq issue if Washington agrees to Russia's commitment in Iran.
[Rybak] Are the differences between Russia and the United States
maybe also a consequence of NATO's eastward expansion?
[Kortunov] Partly. Our foreign policy is today focusing on
cooperation with China, Iran, and the Middle East countries. Yeltsin often
speaks of a multi-polar world, and he has proposed closer
Russian-French-German ties. All that must be seen as attempts to weaken US
predominance.

********

#2
FOCUS-Yeltsin, cabinet gear up for "tough" session
By Anatoly Verbin 

MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his government
geared up on Tuesday for a "tough" session later this week when ministers are
due to report on their patchy record in 1997 and outline plans for this year. 
Government spokesman Igor Shabdurasulov told reporters he had no information
about a possible government reshuffle during or after Thursday's expanded
cabinet meeting with Yeltsin. 
"The discussion will be tough," Shabdurasulov said. "This is logical because
no one expects victory drum-beating. There is no reason for that -- there are
more problems than achievements." 
Kremlin sources said the latest draft of Yeltsin's planned speech to
Thursday's expanded cabinet session did not include any decisions on
dismissals. Yeltsin has, however, continued to hint this is on the cards. 
Yeltsin faces no serious political opposition -- the next presidential
poll is
in 2000 and his main worry is the economy. 
The 67-year-old Kremlin chief said in a state-of-the-nation address a
week ago
the main task this year was to achieve economic growth after years of post-
Soviet decline. 
Typically, he has kept his ministers on tenterhooks in the run-up to the
government's report. 
He said last week Russia "will have another government" if the present one
failed to resolve key tasks for the year, such as having a realistic budget
and securing sound economic growth. Growth in gross domestic product last year
was just 0.4 percent. 
Most analysts read Yeltsin's remarks as a warning rather than an immediate
threat to the government, but he raised the temperature on Monday by
indicating he could reshuffle the government after or even during the cabinet
meeting. 
"He said after a meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin that the
tone
at the meeting would be 'demanding' and specific officials would be called to
account," Itar-Tass news agency said. 
It quoted Yeltsin as adding: "Decisions about them will follow immediately." 
Yeltsin had previously said a reshuffle was possible after the report,
expected to concentrate on the cabinet's performance since the last major
shake-up in March 1997 and its 1998 plans. 
But later, in comments welcomed by the markets and international financial
bodies, he said three key figures in the government would keep their posts.
These were Chernomyrdin and his two reformist first deputies, Anatoly Chubais
and Boris Nemtsov, both appointed by Yeltsin last March. 
Yeltsin also said on Monday he hoped the State Duma lower house of parliament
would show common sense and pass a realistic budget. 
The Duma on Friday considered the bill in its fourth and last reading but
failed both to pass its own version or accept amendments sought by the
government following the Asian financial crisis which has hit Russian markets.
The Kremlin leader may either blame the government for failing to get the
draft passed or the opposition-led parliament for holding up the much-needed
reformist document. 
Any reshuffle would be examined closely for clues to manoeuvring already well
under way within the Russian political and business elite which has as its
goal securing Yeltsin's succession when his term ends in the year 2000. 
Few analysts expect Chernomyrdin, 59, to be sacked. He has been in office
since December 1992 and is seen as a potential presidential contender. 
Though a less than sparkling campaigner, the former gas industry boss's
cautious approach to reform has ensured him solid support among industrial
groups, especially the powerful energy lobby. 
In what could be an indication the prime minister is seeking a higher public
profile, government spokesman Shabdurasulov said Chernomyrdin would appear
every week on Russian television to answer viewers' questions. 

*******

#3
Russian government must rule on tsar bones-Yeltsin

MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Russian President Boris Yeltsin told his government
to decide at a special meeting on Friday when and where the remains of the
last Russian tsar and his family should be buried, a spokesman said on
Tuesday. 
Government spokesman Igor Shabdurasulov told a news briefing that three top
regional officials vying for the right to organise the funeral for Nicholas
II, executed by the Bolsheviks in 1918, would be invited to the meeting.
A special government commission ruled last month the bones were genuine and
recommended they be buried in July this year in St Petersburg from where the
tsars governed Russia until 1917 when Nicholas II abdicated. 
The final ruling had been expected to be taken by Yeltsin personally. 
The tsar, his wife, children and family servants were shot dead in the Urals
city of Yekaterinburg in July 1918. Yekaterinburg governor Eduard Rossel
argues the bones should be buried at a church erected at the site of the
killings. 
Influential Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov says the bones should find their final
resting place in the Russian capital. 

*******

#4
FOCUS-Russians mark army day but glory days over
By Martin Nesirky 

MOSCOW, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Russia honoured its military with missiles and
messages on Monday but, 80 years after the Red Army was founded and nearly a
decade after Moscow lost the Cold War, the glory days are clearly over. 
President Boris Yeltsin and Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev were
unsurprisingly
upbeat in their praise of the armed forces past and present on ``Defender of
the Fatherland Day.'' 
``This is a particularly significant day for Russia,'' Yeltsin said in a
message to armed forces personnel battling with the unavoidable reality of
military reform on a shoe-string budget. 
Sergeyev, who last November became the first post-Soviet officer to be
promoted to the rank of marshal, ordered salutes to mark the holiday in Moscow
and other cities across the Russian Federation from the Baltic Sea to the
Pacific Ocean. 
But with underfunding, low morale, routine draft-dodging, housing shortages,
bullying, outmoded equipment and a top-heavy command structure, the salutes
may ring hollow to many. 
The armed forces daily newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star) nonetheless
splashed a rare red banner headline across its normally drab front page at the
weekend to mark the day. 
On Sunday, thousands of Communists and nationalists marched through Moscow to
protest against the way Russia is reforming its military. A similar march was
planned for later on Monday. 
Itar-Tass news agency reported from Murmansk that Northern Fleet sailors
observed the day by having a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea test-fire
two ballistic missiles across Russia to a proving ground on the Kamchatka
Peninsula in the Far East. 
``Defender of the Fatherland Day'' was originally engraved into the
Communist-
era calendar as Soviet Army Day to commemorate the 1918 founding of the Red
Army. 
That heritage is still not forgotten, and neither is its broader use as an
unofficial but unmistakable ``Day of Russian Men'' for those nostalgic for the
Soviet military heyday. 
``Defending one's Motherland, home and family is the direct duty and
obligation of a real man,'' Yeltsin said in his weekly radio address last
Friday. 
Manhood and pomp aside, both Yeltsin and Sergeyev injected a sharp stab of
pragmatism into Monday's proceedings. 
``Financing has slightly improved,'' Yeltsin said at a wreath-laying ceremony
at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier near the Kremlin, adding he was more
optimistic than a year ago. 
``In general, military reform has started and of course the army will be in
future, I would say, considerably better than now,'' he told reporters. 
Sergeyev, head of the Strategic Rocket Forces until becoming minister last
May, made clear military reform was based on two concepts involving troop cuts
and a major equipment upgrade. 
The first element, he told the weekly newspaper Interfax-AiF, was to reform
strategic missiles forces -- already started -- and equip them with the new
Topol-M missile system. 
Asked whether this meant the aim was to unfurl a nuclear umbrella and then
proceed quietly with other reforms underneath, Sergeyev said: ``The efforts of
the Defence Ministry and General Staff are concentrated on that right now.'' 
The second factor was to secure a flexible, mobile military for the 21st
century rather than a vast but inefficient force. 
Strides have already been made in cutting the armed forces, merging units and
working out how to create an all-professional outfit of around one million men
-- a fifth of the revolutionary force Leon Trotsky had under his Red Army
command by 1920. 
But, in a sign of the importance of military change for overall economic
reform, Sergeyev said the best present of the day for contemporary defenders
of the fatherland was Yeltsin's decision to allocate a future $1.5 billion
Japanese credit to provide housing for soldiers being made redundant.

*******

#5
For more articles from The Moscow Times, check out their website at
www.moscowtimes.ru

Moscow Times
February 24, 1998 
CONFESSIONS OF A RUSSOPHILE: Russia Still Wacky to Core 
By Jean MacKenzie 

"Moscow hasn't changed," said my friend Natasha, as I wailed about the 
decline of Russia's celebrated spirituality. "You just have to look 
around the corners, in the courtyards and the kitchens." 
I was sorely tempted to believe her. We were standing in a warm fug of 
smoke and alcohol, waiting for a poetry reading to begin. The crowded, 
cozy little Shakespeare & Co. bookstore could almost have been in London 
or New York, except that there was no faux-Bohemia here, no carefully 
dressed-down designer black, no arch attempts at clever, post-modernist 
psycho-babble. It was a distinctly Russian brew of cheap cigarettes, 
vodka fumes and soul, and the philosophical discussions were in deadly 
earnest. 
It was the kind of evening I had lived for in the Soviet years, except 
that in those days half the crowd would have been dissidents or 
refuseniks, and an air of danger and defiance would have accompanied the 
literature. Now, the affair had more of a general existentialist angst 
-- with a few Russian twists, of course. 
During the after-reading chatter, a tiny, jolly woman sidled up to me 
and asked me if I had enjoyed the reading. I answered in the 
enthusiastic affirmative, adding some fatuous comments about my love for 
Russian and its poets. 
She nodded gravely, said, obscurely, "I thought so," and launched into 
her spiel. She told me she was a refugee from Ukraine, chased out of 
that country and, somehow, Paris as well, for speaking out about 
Chernobyl and the dangers of radiation, which she somehow combined with 
a literary theme. "They're trying to shut me up," she insisted. I was 
just starting to think that maybe "they" had the right idea when she 
told me that she had a 6-foot birch tree growing out of the wall in her 
kitchen. 
"And no one believes me," she ended. 
I thought my language comprehension must have broken down, so I 
questioned her. She was adamant. The tree had just appeared, and 
overnight had sprouted to 2 meters. Now, I've lived in Russia long 
enough to know that plant and animal life can easily appear where it has 
no business being. A couple of my students at the Pushkin Institute had 
an impressive collection of what looked like mushrooms on the ceiling of 
their bathroom. But the thought that two meters of anything would fit in 
a Russian kitchen was a bit too much for me. 
It was a nightmare flashback to the 1980s, when I worked at the U.S. 
Embassy and was tasked with filtering out Soviet citizens who wanted to 
tell us how they were receiving messages from Mars via the fillings in 
their teeth. I murmured some vague words of sympathy and edged toward 
the door. 
A few days later I was on my way to Western Europe. One month back in 
Russia, and I already needed a vacation. I have always hated 
Sheremetyevo Airport, and all assurances that things had changed, the 
lines had disappeared, even that there was now a "nothing to declare" 
section failed to comfort me. 
I arrived with my usual 2 1/2 hours to spare and prepared to do battle. 
I was not disappointed. 
The first hurdle was trying to fill out a customs declaration, as I have 
always done. 
There were no forms in the usual place, just a sign directing the 
passenger to the customs officers. I duly approached one, and asked for 
a form. He waved me back to the place I had just left. 
Then ensued on of those "conversations" Russian officialdom excels at, 
with rising voice and hectoring intonation: "I told you, go back over 
there." "And I told you, there are no forms over there." Shrugs on both 
sides, then another round. 
This went on until the officer got bored with his game, and I was ready 
to explode. He then gave one final little smirk, took my passport, and 
said, "You don't need a declaration to go through here." 
I was so mad that it took me a few moments to realize that I had just 
had a perfect Kafkaesque experience. Another few minutes and I was 
laughing, and soon felt that warm, "only in Russia" glow. 
Natasha and I were both right. Russia has undergone some shattering 
transformations on the past few years. But it will take more than 
upscale shopping malls and glitzy eateries to touch the wild and wacky 
core of this place. 
Plus ça change ... 

******

#6
Russia: IMF Tries To Force Breakup of State Rail System
By John Helmer

Moscow, 24 February 1998 (RFE/RL) -- During last week's negotiations 
with Russia's government, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), headed 
by Managing Director Michel Camdessus, told President Boris Yeltsin that 
Russia's national rail system must be broken up and privatized. This is 
a previously undisclosed condition, which the IMF has now placed on its 
loan agreement with Russia.
The IMF Deputy Representative in Moscow, Tom Richardson, refuses to 
clarify for RFE/RL Moscow the IMF's venture into setting Russian railway 
policy. But he did not deny that the IMF has issued an ultimatum for the 
breakup of the state-owned system.
The IMF push on Russia's railways flies in the face of a public promise 
from President Yeltsin last September to preserve state control over 
passenger and freight operations, and to keep the main territorial 
operating divisions intact, under Ministry of Railways control. Similar 
promises have been given since then by Boris Nemtsov, the first deputy 
prime minister overseeing Russia's state monopoly utilities; and by the 
Railways minister, Nikolai Aksenenko. For different reasons, the two 
ministers had agreed to preserve the national railroad system in its 
present form for at least two years, while spinning off and privatizing 
a number of subsidiary operations.
For Nemtsov, it is important in the short term to preserve the huge 
revenue contribution which the national system makes to the federal 
budget. Despite falling passenger volumes and freight, and rising costs, 
Russian railways' revenues have grown steadily. They were $9.9 billion 
in 1996; and $11 billion in 1997. This year, they are expected to reach 
more than $15 billion.
Aksenenko, the regional rail administrators, Russia's cash-strapped 
regional governments, the railway workers' union and the Russian 
parliament are all opposed to privatization of the system. They fear 
this will result in the closure of vast sections of track, and the loss 
of the employment and welfare benefits, which the railroad provides in 
Russia's isolated Siberian and Arctic regions.
Moscow rail sources tell RFE/RL that Camdessus and the IMF tried to take 
Yeltsin by surprise by raising the rail privatization demand at their 
Kremlin meeting. The sources say Camdessus took advantage of the absence 
of Nemtsov and Aksenenko at the Kremlin session to press his point. IMF 
Deputy Representative in Moscow Richardson again refused to provide 
detail.
Russia's Rail Ministry reports the volume of passenger traffic (108 
million long-distance passengers and 1.35 billion commuters) fell by 7 
percent compared to 1996. Freight traffic fell in 1997 for the fourth 
consecutive year. The decline in 1997 over 1996 was about 3 percent. The 
Rail Ministry has announced a plan to continue cuts this year in 
long-distance passenger fares and in freight tariffs. 

*******

#7
Washington Times
February 24, 1998   
[for personal use only]     
Embassy Row
By James Morrison

Lukin on the line
     Vladimir Lukin, the former Russian ambassador and now a leading 
member of the Russian parliament, plans to conduct a telephone news 
briefing from Moscow today on his views on the expansion of NATO.
     Mr. Lukin, ambassador in Washington from 1992 to 1994, has been 
suspicious of plans to add Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to the 
Western military alliance. Lately, he has warned that Russia must have a 
genuine voice in the new Russia-NATO pact, designed to ease Russian 
objections to the first round of expansion.
     "If Russia's stance is heeded, the mechanism can well be seen as 
efficient," he wrote in a year-end review of Russian foreign policy.
     "If it becomes an instrument for exclusively furthering decisions 
by [NATO], one has to admit that the standing Russia-NATO council is a 
gimmick intended to keep Russia happy."
     Mr. Lukin, chairman of the Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, "will 
cut through the speculation and will speak ... from an insider's view on 
Russian perspectives and reaction to NATO expansion," said the Center 
for War, Peace and the Media, which is organizing the phone conference.
     Reporters who want to participate in the briefing must call the 
center no later than 10 a.m. The center, located in Boston, can be 
reached at 617/497-7377. The briefing begins at 11 a.m.

No Russian veto
     Nine U.S. senators who support NATO expansion say Moscow must 
realize that the NATO-Russia pact gives it no right to interfere in the 
current or future plans to enlarge the alliance.
     "The NATO-Russian Founding Act must not lead to a delay in NATO's 
enlargement plans. [It] does not give Russia a veto," stated an open 
letter sent to their Senate colleagues as they prepare to consider an 
amendment to expand the NATO treaty.
     The letter was signed by Finance Committee Chairman William V. Roth 
Jr., Delaware Republican; Foreign Relations Committee members Joseph R. 
Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat, Chuck Hagel, Nebraska Republican, Richard 
G. Lugar, Indiana Republican, and Gordon H. Smith, Oregon Republican; 
Armed Services Committee members Joseph I. Lieberman, Connecticut 
Democrat, and John McCain, Arizona Republican; Appropriations Committee 
member Barbara A. Mikulski, Maryland Democrat; and Budget Committee 
member Richard J. Durbin, Illinois Democrat.
     The senators also argued that the expansion of NATO will benefit 
Russia by stabilizing the young democracies in Eastern Europe.
     "Regional stability and security deny nationalist and imperialist 
forces within Russia the legitimacy needed to thrive," they wrote.
     "The West will not encourage reform in Russia by postponing NATO 
enlargement and thereby undercutting reform in Eastern Europe. ...
     "NATO enlargement is not an attempt to isolate or punish Russia."

******

#8
Aide Says Chernomyrdin Will Never Stand Against Yeltsin 

Madrid El Mundo in Spanish
20 February 1998
[translation for personal use only]
Interview with Sergey Kolesnikov, aide to Russian Prime Minister
Viktor Chernomyrdin, by Francisco Herranz, date and place not given,
entitled: "Chernomyrdin Will Never be Yeltsin's Opponent"; first two
paragraphs are El Mundo introduction

Madrid--Sergey Kolesnikov is one of the 10 aides of the powerful
Russian Prime Minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin-- for many experts the future
leader of the Kremlin. He has been with Chernomyrdin since he took up the
post in December 1992. Kolesnikov is a political analyst and his speech
writer.
Kolesnikov, who is in Madrid at the invitation of the Businessmen's
Circle, describes the Prime Minister as a good administrator who comes from
a simple family--"his father was a simple driver"--and has a "great
capacity to learn and assimilate new experiences" .
[Herranz] Under the Constitution, can Boris Yeltsin stand as a
candidate in the elections in 2000? Do you think Chernomyrdin will? What
are his chances?
[Kolesnikov] It all depends how the periods of the Presidency are
seen. According to the new (1993) Constitution, Yeltsin has only been
elected once. However, this question is going to be considered by the
Constitutional Court, which will give its verdict whether he can or not. 
In my opinion, the existing legal foundation allows Yeltsin to do so. 
However, I repeat that the Constitutional Court will decide that. The
experts have widely varying opinions. It also depends on Yeltsin himself.
As for Chernomyrdin, I can tell you that he will never stand as
Yeltsin's opponent in the elections, because he works with him. That is
what happened in 1996 (the last presidential elections), despite the fact
that Chernomyrdin was pressed to take part as a candidate. However, if the
situation changes toward the year 2000, if Yeltsin is not taking part, then
that alternative would arise...
In Russia chance conjectures and predictions of all kinds have
appeared. I would advise everyone not to be in such a hurry. I would say
the same thing about the endless opinion polls. [passage omitted:
Kolesnikov says that the Communist vote is stable but insufficient for
presidential elections, says economic situation is starting to improve,
comments on crime in Russia]

******

#9
Nemtsov Says Will Not Run in Presidential Elections 

Paris, February 20 (Itar-Tass)--First Deputy Prime MInister Boris
Nemtsov says he will not stand in Russia's presidential elections in 2000.
He said in an interview with the French newspaper Le Figaro that he
did not rule out a possibility of President Boris Yeltsin's being
re-elected for the third term.
This would be "not the worst variant", he said.
"At least we would know what to expect," Nemtsov said.
"His health is better than a year ago, you could take it from me. In
addition, an ill Yeltsin is far more reliable than very healthy Zyuganov or
Lebed. And even more than Luzhkov," he added. 
Russia "is living as if under monarchy", he said.
"Why post a candidacy? Who is appointed will become president,"
Nemtsov said.
"It is very important to have a tsar. Russia is too great and lacking
democracy to act differently," he said.

*******

#10
The Economist
February 21, 1998
[for personal use only]
Russia. General discontent
MOSCOW

DETERMINED still to be Russia's next president, Alexander Lebed, a
formergeneral, has decided to get some relevant experience beforehand.
This week he said he would run for governor of Krasnoyarsk, a vast and 
thinly populated region of eastern Siberia, where an election is to be 
held on April 26th. Mr Lebed, a law-and-order nationalist with a strong 
claim on the army vote, is taking quite a risk with his career. If he 
wins, he will have a serious power-base from which to launch a bid for
the Kremlin later. But if he loses, his credibility as a presidential 
candidate will be damaged seriously--perhaps irreparably.
And lose he may. At least two rivals have a fair chance of beating
him. One
is the incumbent, Valery Zubov, a loyal supporter of President Boris
Yeltsin. He has not made a bad fist of running things since he was first
elected in 1993.The other is Pyotr Romanov, ex-head of a big local
armaments factory, who has the Communist Party behind him.
So why risk it? For one thing, Mr Lebed needs a job. He has been out
of one since he felt obliged to resign after four months as boss of Mr
Yeltsin's security council in 1996. Krasnoyarsk has looked promising
territory since the ex-general's brand-new political party, Honour and 
Motherland, finished second in elections for the local legislature in 
December. The pro-Lebed candidates took 14% of the vote--well behind the 
Communists, who took 24%, but a snip ahead of the pro-Zubov block, known
as Union of Business and Order, which took 13.5%.Mr Lebed has also been 
egged on by Alexei, his younger brother, who won last
year's election for governor of Khakassia, a small Russian republic
bordering Krasnoyarsk to the south.
Mastery of Krasno-yarsk's huge mineral and timber reserves would give
Mr
Lebed clout in the world of big business--a prerequisite for a
presidential bid. He would also gain, ex-officio, a seat in the
Federation Council, the upperhouse of Russia's parliament, from which to
maintain his profile as a nationalpolitician. On balance, it makes
perfect sense for Mr Lebed to choose Krasnoyarsk. But will Krasnoyarsk
choose Mr Lebed?

*******

#11
Georgia: Newspaper Views Possible US Hand in Attempt on Shevardnadze 

Argumenty i Fakty, No. 8
February 1998
[translation for personal use only]
Unattributed article column entitled: "The Hand of Washington?"

The attempt on the life of Eduard Shevardnadze and the incredible
rapidity with which the crime was solved are leading antiterrorism experts
to wonder about a few things. A few questions arose after some of them
visited Tbilisi.
First, Eduard Shevardnadze's bodyguards were selected in a highly
professional way. The CIA and FBI were involved in training them. It is
thought that the entire route that Shevardnadze was to follow on the day of
the attack was searched 30 minutes before he was due to drive along it. 
What's more, the whole of the route was under police guard. Therefore, it
would have been practically impossible not to spot three vehicles, one of
them white, in the bushes. A question arises: had someone allowed the
vehicles to drive up? And right at the very moment at which the President
and his escort were due to drive by? However, only the bodyguard service
knew at what time the journey was to be made and along which route.
Second, shots were fired at the hood of the car. Furthermore, what
was used was not a rocket-propelled grenade [RPG], or Mukha with a hollow
charge, but an under-barrel grenade launcher, and probably low-grade
explosives. Firing at the hood is either definitely not the work of
professionals, or if it is, then their aim was not to blow up the car and
its passengers. Antiterrorist specialists say that professionals would
have fired at the side windows as this would have made it much easier to
ensure that those inside were killed. Fortunately, things did not turn out
like that and the explosion did not even jam the side door shut, so
Shevardnadze was able to get out of the Mercedes quickly. Incidentally,
armor-plated Mercedes were at one time tested at a site near Moscow; and an
RPG would have done very well against it. In other words, the Mercedes
would have been blown to bits.
Furthermore, Georgian Television showed a lot of firearms which were
found during the investigation into the attack. It is perfectly probable
that it will soon be announced that these belong to Russian military units
stationed in Georgia. Naturally there will be a huge scandal. However,
specialists say that such quantities of firearms are not used in this sort
of "activity."
Clearly Georgia will be trying with all its might to find Russia's
prints on the attack. For example, it is known that Shevardnadze had said
he would only come to Moscow for the 19 February meeting of CIS heads of
state on condition that former Georgian Security Minister I. Giorgadze was
handed over. He now lives in Moscow and is seen as an official opponent of
President Shevardnadze. However, he is hardly likely to be handed over,
even if Yeltsin promises that he will be.
The following version of what happened is also doing the rounds among
students of political life. The United States is the state most often
mentioned as the one which stands to gain most from a scandal and from
causing a row between Russia and Georgia. Its main reason for doing so
would be to remove from the CIS and to gain complete control over the oil
pipeline from Baku to the Georgian Black Sea coast. It is very curious
indeed that even Eduard Shevardnadze himself is probably not opposed to
this. The Americans give Georgia hundreds of millions of dollars in
humanitarian aid. When the pipeline is on stream there will be extra money
and the country will be able to breathe more freely.
It is appropriate to recall that Shevardnadze has already said things
like the Abkhaz problem must be resolved following the example of Bosnia. 
Most likely, what he is getting at is the need to bring US Marines into
Georgia. In that sense, the 9 February attack was highly opportune.

*******

#12
Local Improvements Seen Winning Votes for Reformers 

Rossiyskiye Vesti
17 February 1998
[translation for personal use only]
Article by Tatyana Sadkovskaya under the "Man of the Day"
rubric: "Mordovian Frosts Teach Pragmatism"

Rossiyskiye Vesti's forecast was accurately confirmed last Sunday: 
The election for head of the Republic of Mordovia was won by its incumbent
leader Nikolay Merkushkin.
It was not at all difficult to predict the outcome: The election was
virtually uncontested. Nikolay Merkushkin's potential rivals, including
the two State Duma deputies Nikolay Medvedev and Yevgeniy Kosterin, who is
the chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation's republican
committee, noisily dropped out of the race back at the stage when
signatures were being collected. Macaroni factory director Aleksey Sharov,
who remained the only alternative to the republic's head, is a man from
Nikolay Merkushkin's team. This enabled opponents to the Mordovian party in
power to call him not a rival to the republic's head but a kind of stool
pigeon: He would not draw away many votes, and the election, being
notionally contested, would be valid.
The republic's Communists opposed the validity of the election in
every way, urging voters to vote against both candidates.
A week before the election, Rossiyskiye Vesti expressed the view that
two factors could contribute to Nikolay Merkushkin's presumed easy victory:
A high turnout, and the very high percentage of votes for his candidacy. 
An analysis of the election situation showed that both factors would occur.
This forecast by Rossiyskiye Vesti also proved correct. According to
preliminary results, despite a frost of minus 30 degrees, more than 75
percent of voters turned out, and 96.6 percent of them voted for Nikolay
Merkushkin.
The result of the Mordovian election, like the results of certain
other regional election campaigns, give us grounds to make certain
generalizations.
The convincing victories in the regions for their outgoing leaders
shows that, in a number of Russian provinces, the reforms have already
yielded results visible to the voter. Wishing to consolidate them, people
are voting for their local "superintendents" of the reforms. Of course,
the incumbent regional leader has a number of advantages in his role as
candidate for his own post: In particular, the covert opportunity to use
all his employees as his election staff. However, elections in certain
regions, for example in North Ossetia, where Aleksandr Dzasokhov, who was
out of work in the republic, scored a convincing victory, show that the
overwhelming strength of this advantage has been exaggerated. Voters are
again ready to vote only for those regional leaders who have proved their
competence through specific deeds. Even if their rivals speak more
eloquently, better, and more, this no longer charms voters. At the
regional level the time when political eloquence was all-powerful is
clearly over.
Incidentally, there is the view that one explanation for Nikolay
Me rkushkin's convincing victory is the impressive propaganda campaign
launched in the central mass media. This explanation can only be partly
accepted. For good or ill, the rural inhabitants in the peasant republic
of Mordovia do not follow the central press. It is possible that they did
not read even a tenth of the good or, moreover, bad things written about
their republic's head. But, if a milkmaid has started to receive 1,000
rubles instead of 300, pensioners are being given feed to rear their own
cattle, and a bus that has not been seen for years has suddenly started to
run regularly to the rayon center, these are already arguments that deserve
attention.

********

#13
Moscow Times
February 24, 1998 
WEB WATCH: Russian Government Online 
By Bill Fick 

The topic of my last column, the dangers of a new law on mass media 
under discussion in the State Duma, generated much interest and reader 
e-mail. The proposed law could make web pages and other Internet 
communication subject to the complex registration requirements and other 
regulations that govern newspapers and television. I have no real news 
to add on the story, but what strikes me most starkly is that few 
observers and commentators question the need for a law on mass media in 
the first place and confine themselves to debating the fine points of 
the legislation. 
I am much more comfortable with the hands-off American approach to this 
problem, which goes something like this: "Congress shall make no law" 
(First Amendment to the Constitution). At a minimum, the burden of proof 
ought to be on lawmakers to demonstrate a need for regulation, rather 
than forcing Russia's netizens to "prove they are not camels" in 
Gogolian fashion under the classic "all that is not explicitly permitted 
is forbidden" doctrine. 
If Duma deputies still feel an irresistible need to dip their toes into 
the waters of Internet legislation, they could begin more usefully by 
establishing some ground rules for web publishing by government 
ministries and departments. Around the world, governments from Albania 
to Western Samoa (check out the links at http://www. 
yahoo.com/Government/Countries/) have embraced the Internet with 
creative initiatives to serve their citizens and make information more 
accessible while saving money on document printing and distribution 
costs. 
The behavior of certain agencies of the Russian government, by contrast, 
seems less public-spirited. For example, the Foreign Ministry appears to 
have "privatized" its online information by distributing its various 
journals exclusively through a commercial electronic publishing company 
called OLVIT. The contents of the "official" ministry web site 
(http://www.diplomat.ru) appear promising, with links to an array of 
Russian-language publications, press briefings, and regulations. 
But of course there is a catch: Only subscribers who pay a whopping -- 
by Internet standards, at least -- $53 per month can access the 
information. What's worse, the web site sits on an Internet channel with 
transfer speeds that are excruciatingly slow even by Moscow standards. 
"Soak the foreigners" is a time-honored fund-raising approach to which 
my own government is not immune, but surely the Foreign Ministry has 
much information also of use to Russian citizens. Paid access to public, 
taxpayer-funded information hardly puts a smiling international face on 
Russia's democracy. It's not my place to criticize and I really don't 
need the information, but a forward-thinking Foreign Ministry could make 
very effective use of the web to present its positions on topics such as 
the Iraq crisis to the widest possible audience, unfiltered and without 
the inevitable media "spin," much as Britain publishes compelling 
reports on the Iraqi bioweapons program at http://www.britain-info.org. 
Fortunately, the ministry's approach to web publishing appears to be the 
exception rather than the rule, and an increasing number of Russian 
government organs are beginning to incorporate Internet communications 
in their public interaction. The Russian Government Internet Service 
(http://www.gov.ru), maintained by the presidential administration, has 
become markedly more active in recent months in what appears to be a 
concerted outreach effort. 
In addition to Yeltsin's biography and income declaration, you can find 
all the bulletins issued by his press services and even the full text of 
his annual state-of-the-nation address from earlier this month. You'll 
also find links to websites for the State Duma (http://www.duma.gov.ru), 
the beautiful Security Council homepage 
(http://www.maindir.gov.ru/sbrf/Default.htm), the Education Ministry 
(http://www.ed.gov.ru) and the Emergency Situations Ministry 
(http://www.emercom.gov.ru). 
Outside the umbrella of the presidential service, numerous other state 
organs have established web presences as well, including the Supreme 
Court (http://www.suprcourt.ru), the Justice Ministry 
(http://www.scli.ru), the Science Ministry (http://www.minstp), the 
State Property Fund (http://www. 
fpf.ru) and Goskomstat (http://www. 
dol.ru/users/vcqks/home. htm). 
The State Tax Service boasts its own information-rich web page at 
http://www. gns.ru, and in perhaps the most interesting experiment of 
its kind I have seen, the government has published the proposed new Tax 
Code online and invited e-mail commentary both on the main gov.ru site 
and at http://www.consultant.ru. 
The Russian Central Bank (http://www. cbr.ru) and Federal Securities 
Commission (http://www.fedcom.ru) have also created websites. The 
Central Bank site simply overflows with macroeconomic statistics and 
other data, and even features a "hotline" e-mail address if you have a 
burning banking question or are still nervous about ruble denomination. 
Below the federal level, local and regional governments across Russia 
have taken to the Internet in increasing numbers. The huge Moscow city 
government website (http://www.mos.ru), complete with pithy statements 
from the mayor, has recently been joined by the Moscow City Duma 
(http://www.duma.mos.ru). The Amursk administration has taken the 
trouble to keep a detailed list of links to regional power structures 
from Bashkortostan to Yaroslavl at 
http://www.amursk.ru/admin/gosorgan.htm. 
Bringing government closer to the people online is a great thing, and if 
we are lucky, legislators will be too busy web-publishing to interfere 
in what the rest of us do online. 
Bill Fick welcomes any tips on interesting websites or questions 
concerning the Internet for response in future editions of this column. 
Fick is co-founder of Samovar Internet Consulting, LLC. Web: 
http://www.samovar.ru e-mail: bill@samovar.ru fax: 953-2261 

******

#14
Duma Approves Bill on Russia's Territorial Integrity 

MOSCOW, Feb 20 (Interfax) -- The territory of the Russian Federation
is indivisible and the secession of a member of the Russian Federation or
part of its territory shall not be permitted, according to a law on the
territorial integrity of Russia approved by the Duma Friday.
The bill was drafted by Liberal Democrats and Communists and sponsored
by the Duma Security Committee.
The law permits the exchange of "equal sections of land or water space
in the border zone" with neighboring foreign states, if the decision is
supported by the legislative body of the Russian region where the exchanged
area lies.
The law permits the adoption of a foreign state or part of its
territory by the Russian Federation. The change shall be registered in an
international treaty later submitted for ratification.
The law names steps which the federal government may take in the event
of foreign aggression or internal threat to territorial security. In any
case the decision is made by the president.
If an armed conflict threatening territorial integrity is "non-
international," the president may immediately order the use of armed force,
reporting his decision to the two houses of parliament.
The bill was supported by 269 deputies, well over the 226 votes needed
for passage. It has been submitted to the Federation Council, Russia's
upper house.

*******