Moscow Times
March 25, 2009
Communists See an Opportunity to Shine
By Nikolaus von Twickel / The Moscow Times
As the crisis worsens, the vexing question for politicians is just who will reap the political spoils of the economic hardships.
A natural candidate is the Communist Party. With 57 seats, it has the second-biggest faction in the State Duma and is widely seen as the country's biggest opposition movement.
The party still commands huge organizational clout in the regions, a legacy of Soviet days when it had a monopoly on politics. It also has a strong following among pensioners and workers and offers a message of economic equality that everyone understands.
But the Communists have been seemingly slow in grabbing the opportunity.
In regional elections on March 1, the first such test since the crisis began, the Communist Party placed a distant second to United Russia, the country's dominant political force headed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. United Russia cemented its grip on elected posts, winning between 42 percent and nearly 80 percent in various votes, while the Communists collected between 8 percent and 27 percent.
Analysts said the Communists are not prepared to support street protests with a radical anti-government stance. Some describe the party's position as a "systemic" opposition force, verging on Kremlin-friendly.
"They have lived too long as his majesty's opposition and have become used to building a comfortable relationship with the Kremlin," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Petrov said the Communists would always garner 15 percent to 25 percent. "But more is not possible, because the party is seriously limited in its behavior. They just won't take part in very tough anti-government protests," he said.
The Communist Party denied that it cooperates with the Kremlin in any way.
"This is plain wrong, and this can be proven by the fact that we are planning nationwide protests on April 4," said Pavel Shcherbakov, spokesman for deputy party leader Ivan Melnikov.
Melnikov himself has promised that the protests will be fiercer than previous ones. "This will not just be a wake-up call," he said in recent comments posted on the party's web site. The tougher slogans will include "Where is our money?" and "New course, new government," he said.
Yet media reports last week suggested that party leader Gennady Zyuganov had promised to abstain from instigating protests in return for "administrative favors" including a direct phone line to President Dmitry Medvedev and a place for Communist Duma Deputy Oleg Denisenko on the president's "Golden 100" list of the country's best managers.
Shcherbakov said Zyuganov did get a direct phone line as did the leaders of the other three factions in the Duma but called the reports of a Kremlin deal part of an "information war" against the party.
The Communist Party, however, has gradually embraced a social democratic stance and been loosing support among its traditional electorate like heavy industry workers, said Alexei Mukhin, an analyst with the Center for Political Information.
"Working-class voters tend to support United Russia. The Communists mainly appeal to pensioners and some middle-class citizens," he said.
Oleg Smolin, a Communist Duma deputy from Omsk, said working-class voters might favor United Russia thanks to its "domination of information channels," primarily the national television channels, which are all state-controlled.
But he also acknowledged that his party could do more to win popular support during the crisis.
"There is inertia and in my mind the party has not yet fully adapted its work to the crisis," he told The Moscow Times.
Smolin was adamant that taking to the streets was the right thing to do. "To let such a situation pass without protests would be more than strange for an oppositional party. Therefore, the number of protests must grow," he said.
Spokesman Shcherbakov promised that the party would make use of its superior strength in the regions.
"We really have the biggest organizational strength out there," he said. "We will make strikes and walkouts happen."
In a sign that the authorities are taking the threat seriously, government pressure appears to be growing on Communists in the regions.
In Bryansk, Zyuganov had to cancel a campaign speech before the local elections on March 1 after a local plant refused to provide its premises.
Zyuganov met with Bryansk voters outside the plant anyway and was later summoned by the Duma's ethics commission to answer to charges of organizing an illegal protest, the party said in a statement posted on its web site. He has not appeared before the commission yet.
In Vladivostok, the Justice Ministry issued a warning to the party's regional branch for participating in protests against increased tariffs on imported cars.
Duma deputies from United Russia and the nationalist Liberal Democrat Party last week accused the Communists in Vladivostok and a local grass-roots movement called Tiger of receiving grants from foreign organizations, a charge that both organizations denied.
Lev Gudkov, director of the Levada Center, an independent polling organization, said authorities had good reason to be concerned about the Communists' activities in the regions.
"They have promoted protests for a long time and to some success. And they still are the biggest functioning opposition party," he said.
Gudkov said public opinion is often pitted against Moscow in far-flung regions, especially the Far East where Vladivostok is located. "They were always unhappy with the federal government," he said.