#15 - JRL 2009-171 - JRL Home
Moscow News
www.moscownews.ru
September 14, 2009
The Kremlin’s think tank
By Tim Wall

From the Cold War days, when foreign experts would try to work out who was really in charge in Moscow from the septuagenarian lineup on Lenin's mausoleum, Kremlinology has always been a funny old game.

Proof of this was supplied again last week, when the country's two leaders showed in their different ways that while Dmitry Medvedev may be the president, for many Vladimir Putin is still the boss.

First, Medvedev launched a policy initiative, reiterating the call for liberal reforms he first made while still a candidate for president.

His description of the country was one that many of the Kremlin's toughest critics could agree with in large part: "An ineffective economy, a semi-Soviet social sphere, a weak democracy, negative demographic trends and an unstable Caucasus. These are very big problems, even for a state like Russia."

In fact, if you didn't know who was behind the words, you could almost imagine them being penned by the Kremlin's least-favourite oligarch, Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Officials quickly pointed out that there was no real difference between Medvedev's position and that of Putin, who has always acknowledged the challenges ahead. But the strange thing was the way Medvedev delivered his message.

It wasn't legislation, or even a speech on primetime TV. No, it was a 5,000-word article posted on the Internet - the equivalent of a policy paper prepared by a think tank for the country's leader, not by him.

"You have to ask Medvedev some primitive questions," The Guardian quoted analyst Andrei Ryabov as saying. "What are you doing? You are the president. You have all the constitutional powers."

In contrast, Putin was more straightforward when asked at a meeting with the Valdai Club if he was planning to return to the presidency in 2012. He simply compared the situation to that in Britain when Tony Blair promised the premiership to Gordon Brown and handed him the job without an election.

In 2012, Putin said he and Medvedev would take a decision about who would stand for president - just like they did in late 2007. If that decision is anything to go by, it will still be Putin calling the shots - and showing he's very much in control. And that, when the country is seeking strong leadership in the depths of a economic crisis, was precisely the message the boss wished to convey.

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