#27 - JRL 2009-143 - JRL Home
Analysts: Armed Conflicts Possible in Central Asian Countries

ALMATY. July 28 (Interfax) - Analysts argued on Tuesday that Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are under authoritarian rule and that they may experience political crises and domestic armed conflicts between 2009 and 2017.

"The international political system may involve quite serious, major developments in Central Asian countries that mean a higher probability of political crises and military conflicts," director of the Kazakhstan Institute of Political Decisions, Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova, told a round table in Almaty titled "Transformation of Political Regimes in Central Asian Countries."

She mentioned that some of those countries, including Kazakhstan, are due to hold presidential elections in that period.

"It cannot be ruled out that there could be social, economic and political contradictions in some of these countries that may lead to what are effectively variants of 'color revolutions.' But there is no guarantee that such a revolution will have a democratic shade," she said.

Experts representing Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan at the round table were unanimous that all four nations have authoritarian government systems.

"A highly personified system of government has been created in Uzbekistan. That country was one of the first Central Asian countries to start developing such a system. It is a mounting trend in the region, it is also underway in Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. Now Kyrgyzstan has joined those countries after the (presidential) election," said a UN expert in Uzbekistan, Yevgeny Abdullayev.

Abdullayev said Uzbekistan is undergoing a "Brezhnevization" process. He argued that this process has a positive side to it, stability, because "the country is more or less coping with all its challenges," but he pointed out "a high extent of corruption, powerful security services, restriction of freedom, and boring elections" as negative sides of the Uzbek system.

Bookmark and Share - Back to the Top -        


Bookmark and Share

- Back to the Top -        

  Follow Johnson's Russia List on Twitter