Russian experts speculate on new president's moves
Interfax
Moscow, 7 May: The fight against inflation, the development of the multi-party system and the improvement of the human rights situation - these are the main tasks which stand before President Dmitriy Medvedev and future cabinet ministers, according to leading Russian experts.
Economics
Editor-in-chief of magazine Ekspert and co-chairman of Delovaya Rossiya (Russ: Business Russia) Valeriy Fadeyev names the fight against inflation as one of the high-priority economic tasks for the Russian authorities.
The present level of inflation, which Fadeyev estimates at 20 per cent, "is very high".
"The level of inflation should begin to fall in the autumn, the wave should pass," Fadeyev told Interfax today. "Inflation can only be lowered by further growth in industry."
He expressed his disagreement with several economists that during Viktor Zubkov's premiership the country stepped back towards stronger administrative methods of regulating the economy.
"Speaking about the dangers of excessive administrative regulation, insofar as Dmitriy Medvedev has become president, and he, of course, has very strong liberal political inclinations, now he is setting the tone, not only Vladimir Putin, it is more likely that the government will be making more use of the instruments of a free-market economy," thinks Fadeyev.
He suggested that, for the fight against inflation, the government should focus their efforts not on the suppression of prices but on taxation, i.e. pursue a course to stimulate production by reducing costs.
"Market methods of government must be used more effectively: it is probably worth looking for a solution to the problem in taxes, rather than in the suppression of manufacturers' profits," said the expert. Fadeyev considers that another important task for the new cabinet ministers is the strengthening of the Russian financial system.
"This is a tactical task in the conditions of the continuing world depression and, on the other hand, without a powerful financial system, we cannot resolve important business problems," stated Fadeyev.
According to the expert, it is similarly essential to resolve a whole layer of other economic problems, "The construction of housing, of the country's roads and also the launch of an innovative economy."
The Parties and Society
Political analyst Gleb Pavlovskiy thinks that the development of the party system in the Russian Federation will continue in the next four years. At the same time, he suggested that the parties "will not be created conforming to the tastes of one president or another and will not change subject to them".
"What Putin has done, whether it is recognized or rejected, is significant above all because a system has emerged which is not bound to regular elections," Pavlovskiy told Interfax today.
According to his assessment, the party system which was created under President Vladimir Putin, will be developed further. "I do not think that Medvedev intends to abolish the party system and return to the time of Yeltsin, when the parties, strictly speaking, meant nothing, insofar as they were created for the elections and, after the expiration of the electoral term, it was possible to create a new political structure," said the analyst.
Pavlovskiy noted that at the present time, "right-wing" parties are falling out of the political spectrum; however, he thinks that this has not been caused by an initiative of Putin, but is due to the incapability of "the right". "Perhaps they will return yet," the expert suggested.
"There will be no decisive changes in this area; further internal democratisation of the One Russia party will continue together with reform of the party," noted Pavlovskiy.
"Today there is the task of creating a very broad coalition to realize a very complex project - "Russia 2020". This project proposes various restrictions and conflict situations for different groups of the population and is, of course, incompatible with the gap between the growth of labour productivity and the growth of revenue," the analyst pointed out.
"It will be essential to smooth over and coordinate these conflicting interests. The coalition formed around the main political direction must engage in this. The party must fulfil this task, insofar as Putin and Medvedev cannot do this in a personal capacity," reckons Pavlovskiy.
"We will have to switch from the politics of loyalty to the politics of agreements and negotiations, to a democratic political style, which is dictated by the need for the swift mobilization of people to fulfil very complex tasks. In this respect, the burden on the party system will increase sharply," concluded Pavlovksiy.
For his part, political analyst Sergey Markov thinks that Medvedev will contribute to the development of the multiparty system in the country.
"One Russia was used as an all-powerful political basis for the smooth transfer of power and the consolidation of the ruling party against a background of the threat of a "colour" revolution. But at the same time, everyone understands that sooner or later it will be necessary to switch to a multiparty system, therefore Medvedev, and even Vladimir Putin to some extent, will assist not only in the strengthening of the ruling party but also in the formation of other parties," Markov said today to Interfax.
He thinks the youth movements can undergo a transformation. "In particular, the 'Nashi' movement was formed as an anti-"orange" force. But today the necessity to realize large-scale civil and social projects comes to the foreground," said Markov.
Concerning the problem of the forming of a national idea, the analyst expressed the opinion that, "More and more people understand the need for a system of national ideas." He noted that, "This process, however, is happening very, very slowly. I do not expect great progress in this context in the near future." At the same time, Markov thinks that such a system of values is essential, so that "the country rises to a high-quality new level of development".
The Mass Media and Human Rights
Chairman of the Russian Union of Journalists Igor Yakovenko doubts that policy in the mass media will undergo major changes in the near future.
"In the near future, the policy in relation to the mass media, most probably, will not change," Yakovenko told Interfax today.
"At the present moment, the informal debate domain of which we spoke during Soviet times, has, of course, widened. Now this domain includes the Internet, partly some of the mass media. There is no sense in decreasing this domain. And there are not, as yet, intentions to extend it," noted Yakovenko.
The chairman said that for effective development of the mass media, a "decisive, unalterable and, above all, prepared withdrawal of the state from the media" is essential, as is the creation "of genuine public television and radio broadcasting".
Meanwhile, the heads of leading human rights organizations Moscow Helsinki group and the Memorial centre do not expect a significant improvement in the human rights situation in the near future.
"The situation could be worse, it could be like it is now and it could be slightly better. But the previous policy will be continued and the general line of deterioration of the human rights situation will, in all likelihood, be continued," head of the Memorial centre Oleg Orlov told Interfax.
"At the beginning, several gestures will be made towards the human rights activists, but whether there will be a serious improvement with human rights - it would be good but scarcely believable," said Lyudmila Alekseyeva, chairwoman of the Moscow Helsinki Group.
"It all also depends on us, the rights activists. We will strive for the repeal of the law about non-commercial organizations. Revision of this law is simply essential. We are counting on the release of the Russian scientists unfairly, in our opinion, accused of espionage. For the release of those in the Yukos case, there is far less hope, but all the same we will be striving for this. It will be a good sign for business," said Alekseyeva.
Director of the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights and member of the Public Chamber Aleksandr Brod regards the future more optimistically.
"The statements made by Dmitriy Medvedev over the past months are encouraging. He is a legal expert, with great experience of scholarly and practical work. Recently, he has raised such topics as the legal education of citizens, the perfection of the judicial system, the development of civil society and the fight against corruption. These really are basic things which allow us to improve the human rights situation significantly," Brod told Interfax.