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#34 - JRL 2008-126 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
July 2, 2008
What kind of nuclear forces does Russia need?

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov) - If the Defense Ministry sticks to its plans to devote three-fourths of this year's booster rocket launches to placing new satellites in orbit, there is hope that our future strategic nuclear missile forces will be not only the sword, but also a strong shield, of our country.

Besides missiles, silos and submarines, modern nuclear weapons systems also depend on a space-based component, comprising telecommunications and early warning satellites. Today, timely and precise information on a nuclear attack and adequate counter-measures are equally necessary for the effective use of strategic missile systems.

In other words, it is necessary to develop a system capable of working effectively with both enemy and friendly missile defenses operating in the same space. Yury Solomonov, director of the Moscow Heat Engineering Institute and one of Russia's principal developers of strategic missile systems, says:

"Advanced strategic systems need to be adaptable to the full-scale deployment of missile defense systems, including space-based components.

"A modern missile defense system comprises two principle components. The data component requires military satellites capable of recording strategic nuclear capabilities and cataloguing the trajectory parameters and combat characteristics of individual missiles. This is crucial for the second component, which includes data processing and means of intercept. This could include either traditional interceptor missiles, or various weapons based on new physical principles.

"These basic principles must be built into the systems which are to replace the current weaponry".

This entails three things: A nuclear power should have a strong network of data service satellites at its disposal, deploy its own missile defense capability, and ensure that the whole system functions as a single entity, aimed at protecting the country from strategic threats.

Frankly, Russia will not be capable of deploying a missile defense system of such complexity in the near future, due to a combination of weak infrastructure and an absence of political will. Even more alarming is the fact that the current early warning system is insufficient. By the beginning of this year only three Russian early warning satellites remained in orbit, which is not sufficient to form a joint data and missile-firing complex.

With so few satellites in operation, potentially fatal errors in missile attack detection become more likely. A false alarm, for example, could force the high command to take the decision to retaliate.

The ground based warning system is also experiencing problems. Russia abandoned early warning radar installations at Sevastopol and Mukachevo in Ukraine for economic and political reasons. The radar station in Armavir, meant to fill the "gap", has still not been put on alert, and the date for doing so is constantly being postponed.

In late June it was reported that a new early warning satellite had been launched into orbit. Unfortunately, it is still premature to talk about Russian strategic missile systems being adjusted to modern requirements.