Russia Profile
www.russiaprofile.org
April 11, 2007
An Audience of One
The End of Liberal Parties is Not the End of Liberal Ideas
Comment by Georgy Bovt
Georgy Bovt is the editor of the Russian weekly magazine Profil.
In the run-up to the regional elections in early March, Anatoly Chubais, one of the leaders of the Union of Right Forces (SPS), admitted that he had done everything possible to form a pre-election alliance with Yabloko, yet Yabloko was prepared to unite only on condition that SPS be completely disbanded. This is a typical picture for Russia's liberalsthey are, it seems, pathologically unable to unite. The personal ambitions of their leaders are extreme, which has in the end led to organizational weakness among liberal movements.
But this situation cannot be completely blamed on deficiencies in organization or the absence of popular leaders. The idea of liberalism is going through an extremely tough time in Russia. So tough, in fact, that ahead of the national elections to the State Duma in December, it is hard to see how the liberals could possibly get the 7 percent of the vote needed to take seats in the parliament. Does this mean that Russian liberalism as an ideology will be buried for the foreseeable future?
Ideas associated with liberalism, like defending human rights and individual freedoms, although falling behind social guarantees and personal safety in the eyes of most Russians, still consistently poll support of around 15-20 percent. Similar numbers are usually cited in discussions about the liberal electoral base in Russian society. Yet not one liberal party has ever garnered that percentage of votes in an election.
Although the middle class, which has traditionally been seen as the best hope for establishing democracy in Russia, has already appeared and makes up at least a third of the population, Russia has recently seen a rise in nationalism and xenophobia. Nationalists, rather than liberals, have been enjoying ever greater popularity.
Many political analysts, and most insightful liberal leaders, believe that had the authorities not applied some not-entirely-honest methods of political conflict resolution, giving nationalists complete freedom and the opportunity to contest the elections, then the charismatic former head of Rodina, Dmitry Rogozinwhose party was not only barred from elections but later also swallowed up by Kremlin-obedient Just Russiawould have been a powerful opponent to United Russia and possibly even a presidential candidate.
There is nothing unexpected in this. After those who make up the backbone of the middle class satisfied their basic material needs and adapted to the new rules of social and economic life, they started to look around and think more and more about previously "abstract" problems like the country's greatness, its relations with "non-native" populations and the revival of the empire, in one form or another.
In its ideological evolution, the middle class did not go down the road of individualism and liberty. Instead it became statist, despite the recognition that state institutions are inefficient and generally corrupt. These realizations did not lead to the practical conclusion reached in most other countriesthat the citizenry starts to defend its rights by political means, including support for liberal parties. In Russia, this recognition has led to changes in people's everyday behavior, trying to deceive hostile and corrupt institutions by getting around the law. But they did not try to change the system or the people who run it. Because of this attitude, liberals in Russia have no chance in the foreseeable future.
Another factor impeding the popularity of the idea of liberalism is that the current model of state capitalism in Russia has yet to show its fallibility in practice. In other words, although much has been said about the inefficiencies of state-controlled capitalism and the dangers of resources-driven economic growth, no one has yet seen this prognosis borne outat least not recently.
And really, this has never been the reason for mass political action. Actionand the regrouping of political partiesbegins when things have already happened, not in preparation for an eventuality many believe will not take place.
At the same time, even if the liberal parties don't win any seats in the Duma and fail to get into even one regional parliament, the significance of the ideas they propagandize should not be diminished.
First, these ideas are doomed to remain in the minority in many countries. Second, the ideas propagandized and shared by the minority are not so neglected in Russia, which actually adheres to them to a greater degree than often seems to observers from outside. Most importantly, they are shared by a substantial part of Russia's intellectual and ruling elite.
Russia has long had a saying that the most European person in the country is the tsar. So, in principle, for there to be a victory of liberal ideas in one form or another, it is enough for them to be shared by just one person. You know who.