Russia Profile
www.russiaprofile.org
November 15, 2007
The Importance of the Opposition
The Opposition's Election Boycott Could Lead to a Totalitarian State
Comment by Dmitry Katayev
Dmitry Katayev was a deputy of the Moscow City Council and the Moscow City Duma from 1990 to 2005. He is currently running for the State Duma on the Moscow regional list of the SPS party.
Not since the 1990s has Russia's future depended so much on the results of State Duma elections. Never before have the voters had it beaten into their heads so stubbornly that their vote doesn't matter. And never before has there been such disarray in the democratic camp.
On his website, Kasyanov.ru, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who is currently the leader of the opposition party People's Democratic Union (PDU), posted a message about the upcoming elections: "What should honest citizens do in this situation? The first thing they must do is not help the government usurp their right to power and authority in the Russian Federation, which is granted to them in the first chapter of the Russian Constitution." But instead of encouraging people to go out and vote, Kasyanov continues: "My personal decision as a citizen is this: I will boycott the upcoming elections. I do not want to assist the regime with rebuilding the Soviet Union in its worst manifestation. We do not need a totalitarian Russian Federation!"
On his website Kasparov.ru, Garry Kasparov, the leader of The Other Russia, writes: "The opposition coalition The Other Russia suggests that everybody who wants to protest the electoral system can write our name on their ballot. Eduard Limonov has stated that the authorities cannot avoid announcing the number of improper ballots."
On the whole, these groups are pulling the last voters away from the mainstream opposition parties like Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS). If supporters of Kasparov and Kasyanov vote in the election, it will have no effect on the general results, but they may prevent SPS or Yabloko from breaking the 7 percent barrier required to enter the Duma. United Russia will have its mandate and Kasyanov and Kasparov will have played their role but what a role it will have been.
What happens next can be judged by the events of the past four years, during which the majority in the State Duma encountered no rebuffs from democratic factions. During these years, Russians have been deprived of the right to elect governors, and for those in Moscow or St. Petersburg, also the right to elect mayors; we have been deprived of any real independent candidates for president and were left face to face with "The Irreplaceable" Vladimir Putin; we have been deprived of normal elections, so that now only a mighty popular wave can overpower the dam of electoral legislation; we have been deprived of any real chance to create political parties. Russia has lost its most effective and transparent oil company, along with many less noticeable ones the ones that together brought Russia out of the deep crisis at the end of the 20th century. But these problems are secondary to the general thickening atmosphere of arbitrariness, corruption, conspiracy and cover-ups.
After the upcoming elections, which may be the end of Yabloko and SPS, corruption and government raiding will become not just customary, but universal, leading to ineffectiveness, a loss of capital, stagnation, and inflation.
The attack on the institution of elections will continue. It's quite possible that on Dec. 2, the presidential elections will become obsolete as a result of "nationwide support" for United Russia, lead by Putin. Meanwhile, Kasyanov believes that the liberal forces still have a chance to agree on a single candidate for president. Actually, Kasyanov assumed that an agreement could be reached in July, but this did not happen. Another attempt will be made after the Duma elections. Kasyanov himself is willing to consider various structures for this coalition; Kasparov is being nominated as the candidate from The Other Russia. Kasyanov and Kasparov are encouraging people to avoid the Duma elections, but appeal for an agreement on a single presidential candidate, so that just three months after the parliamentary elections, they can participate in the presidential election with the same electorate, according to the same laws, with the very same election commissions.
Another argument for supporters of Kasyanov and Kasparov is that SPS and Yabloko are no opposition. But the opposition will never be perfect, and having some opposition in the Duma is better than having none. Of course, it would be wonderful for the democrats to have a parliamentary majority. A two-party system is also not that bad, as long as the competing parties are comparable in resources and, of course, as long as they do not unconditionally support the same president. Unfortunately, this is unreal for present-day Russia. But even a single independent deputy and 7 percent of the vote would create a faction of 32-35 deputies would mean the survival of the extremely necessary legislative initiatives or amendments to bills. The presence of opposition deputies would also assure that the media would be aware of overly offensive bills, such as the bill recently introduced by United Russia concerning the seizure of private property under the pretext of the Sochi Olympic Games, and would bring necessary attention to them. A Duma faction would give the opposition personnel, information, and connections for the party; a platform in the media, even with all the limitations imposed on the opposition; a source of information and a focal point for the democratic public; an access point to governmental organizations for the democrats and the community at large.
On the whole, the presence of opposition deputies in the Duma would be a sign of the fact that democracy has not yet disappeared and would provide support for advertised social stability that in reality is unattainable under a monopoly by the ruling party. It would maintain a minimum of political subsistence, which the inevitable democratic wave of the future could build on.
This is exactly why the bureaucracy is trying so hard to keep even a single opposition deputy from entering the State Duma. The more insolent the dictatorship, the more it can't stand, and the more we need an opposition, even a weak one.
The party of power and the fringe opposition should not use these elections to push Russia over the edge from a bureaucratic dictatorship into a totalitarian regime.