Russia Profile
www.russiaprofile.org
November 13, 2007
Back by Popular Demand
The Enthronement of President Putin
Comment by Vladimir Frolov
Vladimir Frolov, the former director of the National Laboratory for Foreign Policy, a Moscow-based think tank, now serves as President of LEFF GROUP, his own government and public communications company.
Thousands of people from across Russia will gather on November 15 in Tver Region - the small Russian city of Rzhev is most often mentioned as the likely location - to found the All-Russian Public Movement in Support of Vladimir Putin. The choice of location is not accidental - Putin's parents were born in Tver Region.
For almost two months now, after President Putin's surprise announcement on October 1 that he will lead the slate of United Russia candidates in the December parliamentary election, we have seen public demonstrations and rallies in support of Vladimir Putin spread across the country at the speed of sound. There is hardly a region left now that has not staged a pro-Putin rally and some have even done so several times with different groups of people.
The state-owned television channels have been feeding us a growing stream of reports about pro-Putin rallies with stand-ups of ordinary people expressing their gratitude to the president for the stability and prosperity that his eight-year rule has brought to Russia. A coordinating committee led by a charismatic lawyer and the popular television anchor Pavel Astakhov has been set up to help establish the All-Russian pro-Putin movement. And, of course, all sorts of youth groups have staged demonstrations and other street events to demonstrate their heartfelt support for the president.
Almost everywhere the rallies appeal to Putin to continue leading the nation in one way or another after his presidential term expires in 2008. Recently, people have started calling for Putin to be awarded a special status - that of the Leader of the Nation - allowing him to supervise the activities of the next president and his government. A high-ranking United Russia party official - Abdul-Khakim Sultygov - suggested convening a National All-Russian Sobor (or assembly) to anoint Putin with the status of the National Leader and grant his new position power over the Constitution.
This public agitation about Putin and what should be done to keep him at the helm of Russia after 2008 has essentially eclipsed the Duma election campaign, which has been stripped of any agenda. United Russia has turned the election into a referendum on the personality of the president, without any discussion of the policies pursued during his rule. This turns the election into a vote "for or against Putin." With United Russia having Putin's name on its ballot, a vote for any other party is automatically a vote "against Putin". Not much of a choice.
The specific contents of "Putin's Plan," touted by United Russia as its electoral platform, remain a mystery and are not under discussion at all. It seems that all the policies pursued under Putin have been perfect and that no changes or modifications are necessary or even worth discussing. Putin's guidelines appear to be accepted purely as a matter of faith. This, if anything, is a recipe for future stagnation.
There is no doubt that President Putin is very popular with the people. All opinion polls show that his approval ratings remain staggeringly high - above 70 percent. And it is equally clear that many people in Russia are quite sincere in feeling that Putin is an unquestioned national leader and probably the best ruler Russia has had for centuries.
What is somewhat less obvious is why so many people would suddenly feel the need to express those feelings toward Putin publicly in rallies and marches and even start mobilizing into a grass-roots movement in support of a leader who already has all the backing he needs? It is really hard to believe in such a simultaneous outpouring of emotions in different parts of Russia.
The way the rallies are organized and conducted - the pompous speeches extolling the president's virtues, the flags and banners, the extensive television coverage with copycat stand-ups, as if the speakers had been told to learn the same talking points - suggest tight orchestration rather than spontaneity. And there are also reports that at least in some cases people have not been attending the rallies voluntarily, but rather were commandeered from their workplaces.
And so my question is why? Why order people to express their love for Putin? True love is an emotion expressed in private. Public love is something else. Why create organizations whose sole purpose is to support an already popular leader? Why risk compromising people's genuine respect for Putin with puppet shows no one believes in? Why the overkill?
It is said that the Kremlin is looking for ways to design what is euphemistically called "a new configuration of power in Russia," where Putin would be able to retain his unquestioned leadership in a new position not based on constitutional strictures, drawing its legitimacy from the overwhelming popular support.
This popular support needs to be measured, quantified and channeled into an organization. Hence the need for Putin to lead United Russia during the elections and the need to back it up with a non-partisan public movement in support of Putin as the Leader of the Nation. Hence the Movement and the All-Russian Sobor. This would not be unlike electing Mikhail Romanov as the new Russian tsar after the end of the Time of Troubles in the 17th century.
If United Russia fails to live up to the expectations, another pro-Putin group would be waiting in the wings. In that sense the movement would be a replacement for Mironov's Just Russia as another leg to support Putin's political system. Mironov discredited the idea by believing that he had the license to form an alternative political elite, which could become a destabilizing contraption. Hence, Mironov's Party might not even make it to the new Duma with its current ratings of 3 to 5 percent.
So, the strategic plan seems to have changed. Putin may not in the end bother becoming prime minister. He would become the Leader of the Nation by popular acclaim. This status would still have to be codified somehow to elevate Putin above the new president and prime minister - if not legally (since Putin said the Constitution would not be changed to redistribute power), then politically. Putin would then either seek another presidential term in 2012 or remain the National Leader for life.
Still, it would look somewhat outlandish, and I doubt Putin himself wants to be anointed. He has kept silent about all the rallies and pompous statements. It remains unclear whether he will attend the initial gathering of the movement to support - well, himself.
The problem with this plan is that it can ultimately destroy Putin's legitimacy as the National Leader if more and more people are forced to join the Movement and engage in humiliating public displays of love for the Leader. We have been there before and done that. It did not work.
Another problem with the plan is that the status of the National Leader would lack international legitimacy. The G8 is a club of elected leaders who exercise constitutional powers. Of course, in diplomacy you deal with the leader in charge, whatever his title (Den Xiao Ping held regular meetings with foreign leaders). But, as they say in a Russian joke, the aftertaste will be different.
Making Putin the prime minister is a much better deal. That will preclude the evolution of the system into a regime based solely on personal power, while creating an alternative power base that would serve as a check on the constitutionally omnipotent presidency. Given Putin's popularity, it could be achieved even without the legal redistribution of power toward the office of the prime minister. And such a political configuration would stimulate policy debate, driving innovative political and economic thinking.
This historic opportunity is about to be lost by cynically manipulating people's genuine respect and admiration for Putin. The only question is why.