Moscow News
www.MN.Ru
September 27, 2007
Valentina Matviyenko: Russia's Next President?
By Robert Bridge
Before anybody can make a serious prediction concerning the identity of Putin's future 'successor,' it is important to keep in mind that the Russian president has never been predictable in his behavior.
Prior to the 2000 elections, for example, at a time when most other politicians would have been pacing the carpet and channel-surfing for the latest poll results, Putin was riding shotgun in a fighter jet over war-torn Chechnya.
Vladimir Putin was the first world leader to telephone the White House with his condolences and declaration of support following the watershed attacks of 9/11; he held true to his word by giving the green light to the presence of U.S. troops in Russia's backyard, a decision he may now regret.
Putin, a black belt in Judo, rarely gave personal demonstrations of his deadly skills for a single journalist or political opponent, which is rather amazing considering how much several of these individuals could have benefitted from such a lesson.
Finally, Vladimir Putin, who is approaching 55, did what very few political leaders could risk doing without a severe drop in their popularity ratings, not to mention self esteem: he removed his shirt while fishing in full view of the paparazzi (French President Nicolas Sarkozy tried the same ploy days later, only to be embarrassed by retouched magazine photos).
These bare factors lead me to the conclusion that Mr. Putin will continue with his tradition of shocking and awing the Kremlin watchers by throwing his hefty political weight behind Valentina Matviyenko, the governor of St. Petersburg, in next year's presidential elections.
Initially, I had serious reservations about making any predictions on the presidential race, but the recent government shakeup seems to support my personal favorite 'dark horse' candidate.
But first we must consider a glaring question: Why would United Russia risk a massive political fracture by splitting the house between two potential candidates? What is presently happening is that Kremlin officials are 'crossing the political Rubicon' by announcing - albeit silently - their personal allegiances to either Sergei Ivanov or Dmitry Medvedev, the two men most favored to succeed the president in 2008.
The Russian house, it seems, is (intentionally) divided, so what it naturally needs now is a conqueror, albeit a gentle one. It seems unlikely that new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, who seems to have the magnetism of wet cardboard, is the political alchemist who can mend this fissure. Although this theory may sound too much like Jungle Story, it requires the feminine touch to heal a rift, which will certainly transpire, between two clashing male groups. How else to get over the severe ego blow that either Ivanov or Medvedev will certainly feel should they not get the big nod? Valentina Matviyenko, who could possibly unite the various factions like a modern Catherine, has the charisma, charm and skill for such a task. At that point, Ivanov and Medvedev will walk away from the fight, giving each other back slaps and punches to the arm, in the full knowledge that there are moments when a man is no substitute for a woman.
Matviyenko's chances for leading United Russia in the next presidential elections got boost during the recent cabinet reshuffle, which saw two women (Tatyana Golikova and Elvira Nabiullina) give two men (German Gref and Mikhail Zurabov) a high-heel kick out the door. This shift toward a more maternal (and by extension, caring) government - a historic first for Russia - is a signpost for things to come. It should not be forgotten that the Communist Party is still breathing hard down United Russia's back. So, at the risk of sounding chauvinistic, females - if we exclude 'Iron Lady' Margaret Thatcher from our calculations - traditionally cultivate a more compassionate image than the war-mongering males. Matviyenko - with Putin's backing - could easily be the poster candidate for social awareness.
Matviyenko said the promotion of women into government was important. "Previously everybody said that we did not have enough qualified women to work in the government. But they exist," Interfax reported.
What does the St. Petersburg governor have that her male rivals lack? Well, biology and Petersburg credentials aside, she is one of the most popular regional leaders, and regularly gets 70 percent approval ratings. Matviyenko has shown a real knack for attracting business to St. Petersburg, and was the first Russian governor to travel to the U.S., where she proved enormously popular with her hosts.
One last important thing to consider: United Russia is certainly aware that there is a better than average chance that Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the first woman president of the United States in 2008. Who better to call in congratulations from the Kremlin than another woman?