RIA Novosti
September 27, 2007
New Cabinet - a lot of hints
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Vavra) - Changes in the government did not come up to expectations. They are not very indicative and make it unclear what was wrong with the previous Cabinet.
Drastic reforms are no good for a period of smooth transition from one election campaign to another, which typically requires stability. Any more or less serious reforms will be acceptable as soon as the work of the new government is streamlined. For the time being, this reshuffle, new agencies and additional powers seem to contain a lot of hints for us.
Here's an example. Why remove Fradkov if he has received the highest government award for his performance? If his government had failed, who would have given it to him?
It was clear that Mikhail Zurabov would be out, and that Vladimir Yakovlev will follow suit - his ministry achieved very little. German Gref's departure came as a surprise - other "befitting" candidates had been mentioned instead. There was a strange episode with Anatoly Serdyukov, who handed in his resignation on the grounds that he was related to the prime minister. But he is not supervised by the prime minister, so why worry? The president has rightly rejected his resignation.
The vacated positions have been taken up by newcomers. But are they really new? Tatyana Golikova used to be deputy finance minister, while Elvira Nabiullina headed Gref's Center of Strategic Research; Dmitry Kozak worked in the government, the presidential executive office and as the envoy to the Southern Federal District.
To sum up, the political elite has become even more consolidated, having got rid of some rara avis-like figures.
Two committees have been set up. One is in charge of youth affairs, which is only natural - party work with the younger generation has been ideologically extravagant and distasteful. Could this be a hint that the parties have not coped with the young and should not deal with them anymore?
The fisheries committee is also logical - fish and caviar are being stolen in Russia. The information about the new committee was "leaked out" before the new government was established - a TV news channel showed cans with caviar delivered to Moscow by smugglers. Indicatively, they landed in a military airfield. Is this a hint that Serdyukov is still needed as defense minister?
What about other natural resources? Trees are also stolen. Maybe, having started with fish and caviar they will also set up a forest committee? Or does the formation of new committees mean that the government's structural reform (which is now pending because of elections) will follow this road? Is it a hint that eventually they will return to the old tried-and-tested ministerial system instead of the cumbersome and abstruse three-level structure of executive power?
The new minister of regional development has received additional powers. This will allow him to expand the activities of his department, which has been a poor show so far.
Finance Minister Kudrin has been upgraded to the deputy prime minister. Now there are five of them in the government - one more reminder of the abortive administrative reform. It was initiated by the current Minister Kozak. Is his appointment a hint that the reform will go on or be suspended till the time is ripe?
The Ministry of Health and Social Development is now headed by a financier. Is this a sign that her main duty will be to enforce financial discipline in this department (it was accused of embezzlement and some of its officials were sent to prison)? But apart from embezzlement, the ministry's APM (additional provision of medicines) program is such a mess that financial control alone won't do much.
In general, the recent changes and appointments have killed the desire to make any forecasts. The new government requires a narrative with periodical interrogative sentences and very cautious assumptions because we cannot but feel that it is hinting at something all the time. I wish I knew at what.