| JRL HOME | SUPPORT | SUBSCRIBE | RESEARCH & ANALYTICAL SUPPLEMENT | |
Old Saint Basil's Cathedral in MoscowJohnson's Russia List title and scenes of Saint Petersburg
Excerpts from the JRL E-Mail Community :: Founded and Edited by David Johnson
#9 - JRL 2007-199 - JRL Home
Date: Tue, 18 Sep 2007
From: GORDON HAHN <gordon-hahn@sbcglobal.net>
Subject: MR. ZUBKOV: Who and Why

President Vladimir Putin's acceptance of the resignation of Mikhail Fradkov and his government and the nomination of Viktor Zubkov to be Russia's new prime minister is not a September surprise. Unless Putin is planning to return to the presidency in 2012 or sooner, Zubkov is unlikely to be Putin's hand-picked long-term successor. Zubkov is of pension age and will turn 66 this coming Saturday.

In all likelihood, Zubkov will be a short-term interim premier. For this he fits the bill. He is a trusted member of the Petersburg clan and Putin's team. As such Zubkov can take the reins of government and loyally hold Putin's course during the federal election cycle. However, it cannot be excluded that Putin would tap him as a puppet temporary presidential successor either to serve a presidential term or, what is more likely, to retire early 'for health reasons' thereby setting the stage for Putin's return to the Kremlin.

What are Zubkov's particulars? Like many of Russia's elite, he has his roots in the old Soviet party-state apparatus. Trained as an agronomist, Zubkov ran a branch of an association of state collective farms, then the association itself, an innovative and reportedly successful perestroika-era cooperative farm, and then the Priozersk city government.

During the perestroika era he entered the Party apparatus as head of Leningrad Oblast's Communist Party Agricultural and Food Industry Departmnent. Like Putin and many others, Zubkov jumped safely from the sinking communist ship of state, becoming in 1992 first deputy of the Leningrad city (St. Petersburg) government's Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Vladimir Putin.

Zubkov is said to be, and his bio suggests that he is well-connected to the ruling Petersburg clans. In 1993-1999 he was head of the State Tax Inspectorate for St. Petersburg serving as deputy head of Russia's State Tax Service (from 1999 the Taxes and Collections Ministry and from 2004 the Federal Tax Service), where he pressured reluctant tax payers like the Leningrad Gas Transportation company (LenTransGas) to cough up revenues. He became the patron of another Petersburger, present Defense Minister Anatolii Serdyukov, who is Zubkov's son-in-law and would succeed him at the Petersburg Tax Inspectorate upon Zubkov's promotion to Moscow. Serdyukov's own successor for Petersburg tax inspection, Mikhail Mokretsov, was appointed head of the Federal Tax Service in the February 2007 reshuffling that saw top presidential contender and then Defense Minster Sergei Ivanov promoted to First Deputy Prime Minister and Serdyukov appointed as Defense Minister. This suggests the rise of an entire patron-client network, the apex of which consists of Ivanov and Zubkov.

Zubkov's tenure as chief financial intelligence officer saw a thirty-fold increase in convictions for money-laundering from 2003-2005 and Russia's removal from the FATF's money-laundering black list. His proposal to monitor state officials' banking accounts suggests that he may have been appointed to intensify the anti-corruption campaign at least during and perhaps even after the upcoming election season.

In 1999 Zubkov ran for the governorship of Leningrad Oblast, taking 8 percent of the vote. The present chairman of the pro-Putin United Russia party and the State Duma Boris Gryzlov served as his campaign manager. Zubkov himself ran the pro-Putin Unity party's Petersburg branch in the Duma elections in 2000.

Zubkov is said by some to be a 'Kudrin man.' In November 2001 he became simulataneously Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin's first deputy and acting chairman of the ministry's new Financial Monitoring Committee. With the government reorganization during Putin's second term, Zubkov came to head the new Federal Service for Financial Monitoring, charged with reducing illegal capital flight and fighting money laundering and official corruption.

But more than Kudrin's man, Zubkov is Putin's man. In 2000 he was one of only twenty-one people invited to Putin's birthday party at the restaurant 'Podvore' in Pavlovsk. Since then he has been repeatedly promoted and assigned strategically important tasks.

More intriguing is the possibility that by instigating the government's resignation Putin also might be cutting loose the presumptive top contenders, first vice premiers Sergei Ivanov and Vladimir Medvedev, leaving them to fight for the presidency in an election less dominated by the 'administrative resources' that have essentially rigged recent elections in favor of the Kremlin's favorites.

However, their separation from administrative resources might require more than their removal from government office. Both are leaders of major state corporations from which state finances could be used, and both have numerous allies in government structures, including the law enforcement organs, the courts, and the electoral commissions which are perhaps the main administrative resources.

Moreover, cutting loose these leaders, behind whom various factions within the larger Petersburg super-clan have lined up in preparation for the elections, risks an all-out war of administrative resources during the campaign. The unrestrained struggle for power that could ensue from this could split the neo-nomenklature apart and seriously destabuilize the ship of state. Given the Kremlin's fear of a 'birch revolution,' it is unlikely that Putin would be willing to risk a regime split. Such a split would likely prompt defections to an opposition which includes neo-nomenklatura types like former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who surely has allies still ensconced in positions of power.

It may very well be that Ivanov will be appointed as Secretary of the Security Council while retaining the first vice premiership. Medvedev's prospects seem less promising given his declining popularity ratings and disappearance from the television screen in comparison with Ivanov. Putin's choice as his successor is now between Ivanov for a longer-term and Zubkov for a shorter-term.

In sum, Putin has left his options open. By picking a close associate and another premier-technocrat - one who can function as election cycle government caretaker or puppet successor, Putin has removed an alien element - Fradkov - from the Petersburg-dominated leadership during the crucial campaign period and appears to have decided not to decide, leaving his options open for a transition period of an as yet undefined duration. He can leave the political stage or leave it to return at a time of his own choosing.

Putin also has choices as to the mechanism of his return. Zubkov or Ivanov can be designated Putin's choice in the March 2008 campaign and replaced by the other or Putin either in a mid-term presidential election or by Putin in 2012.

Gordon M. Hahn, Senior Researcher, Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program, and Adjunct faculty, Graduate School of International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies. Dr. Hahn is author of two well-received books, Russia's Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007) and Russia's Revolution From Above, 1985-2000 (Transaction Publishers, 2002) as well as numerous articles in academic journals and English and Russian language print and electronic media. He has taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities, as well as Saint Petersburg State University, Russia as a Fulbright Scholar and has been a fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Hoover Institution.