RIA Novosti
August 20, 2007
Georgia and Russia - doomed to conflict
MOSCOW. (Yelena Imedashvili for RIA Novosti) - It would be naive to assume that a joint Russian-Georgian expert inquiry would produce a unanimous opinion on what aircraft became a catalyst for another aggravation of bilateral relations.
It is hard to say why Tbilisi and Moscow went into this joint inquiry, considering that it was clear from the very beginning that neither side would give radar evidence against itself.
This is exactly what happened and both Georgia and Russia hastened to accuse each other of concealing information and forging evidence, although both understood what was going on. This is the case when the absence of a result is a result.
Spokesman for the Georgian Defense Ministry Batu Kutelia said on this score: "We did not expect any 'confessions' from Russia. We have got convinced that the Russian side has no technical evidence to justify itself."
Head of the Russian delegation, Ambassador at Large Valery Kenyaikin was just as explicit: "There is no reason to discuss anymore Russia's alleged involvement in the incident. But we are ready to help Georgia figure out what has happened on its territory."
Neither Tbilisi, nor Moscow is trying to tone down their accusations of each other. At the same time, they kindly prompt each other a way out. Tbilisi is hinting that a "Russian pilot could fly to the foreign air space by mistake." In turn, Kenyaikin warned Tbilisi that "some forces could act contrary to the position of the Georgian central leaders, and could organize such a provocation."
But nobody is going to use face-saving hints. It is clear that Georgia has used the incident and all available instruments of a diplomatic war in order to force the Russian side into the defensive position. This has evoked a response in Europe, which has been alarmed by Moscow's latest steps in defense and security. The Georgian diplomatic offensive was a success.
Most probably, we will never find out what really happened on August 6. Nor will we ever know the circumstances of the shooting in the Kodor Gorge on March 11.
The sides are continuously replenishing their bilateral calendar of memorable dates by creating new problems for each other, and each time they miss a chance for settlement. Emotions are running so high that the August 6 incident may soon match the spy scandal of September 27, which launched a downward spiral in bilateral relations.
The list of mutual grievances may be endless. Georgia is accusing Russian of pursuing an imperial policy and supporting separatist regimes. Russia is angry at Georgia for its NATO bid, aggressive rhetoric and intention to achieve settlement in Abkhazia and South Ossetia without its participation. This is just the beginning of the list.
At the same time both Tbilisi and Moscow keep talking about "centuries-long friendship" and the importance of good relations, but the centrifugal force is moving them further and further apart.
Yelena Imedashvili works for the Novosti-Gruzia news agency.