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#15 - JRL 2007-124 - JRL Home
Russia/U.S.: Analysts Say New Arms Race Unlikely
By Luke Allnutt
Copyright (c) 2007. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org

May 31, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Russia's recent test of new strategic and tactical missiles and U.S. plans to base parts of a missile-defense system in Central Europe have sharpened fears of a new arms race.

Russia last month said Moscow will suspend compliance with the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, and has hinted it might withdraw from another treaty limiting nuclear arms.

Generally sour ties between the United States and Russia have prompted talk of a new Cold War for some time, so perhaps talk of a new arms race is inevitable.

But Duncan Lennox, the editor of "Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems," says an arms race is not realistic.

"I think this is just a continuation of the process that has been in place for many years between the Russian Federation and the United States," Lennox says.

Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent Moscow-based military analyst, says that during the Cold War, it was a race between two more or less equal blocs. That, he says, is not the case now.

"Right now, Russia is much smaller than the Soviet Union. It doesn't have the Warsaw Pact. It doesn't have the capabilities to race the West, which has almost eight times more population, and whose economy is 100 times bigger," Felgenhauer says.

Aging Arsenal

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, defense spending in the country has increased fourfold. An ambitious strategy to modernize the military was announced last year, and Russia spent $8.8 billion to upgrade its military equipment. That figure is likely to be higher in 2007.

Felgenhauer says the latest Russian plans are to deploy, by 2015, 100 new land-based ICBMs. But he says that more than 400 old missiles are going to be scrapped, many of them carrying more warheads.

"The Russian plans of military deployment that have already been announced and approved up until the year 2015 do not talk about an arms race, but of more of a organized and controlled disarmament. The disarmament of Russia is basically continuing. We're losing more weapons than we are producing new ones," Felgenhauer says.

The talk of a new arms race might be premature. But it is unsurprising, perhaps, given the weight of history.

Star Wars

It was the policies of U.S. President Ronald Reagan, who attempted to intensify the arms race with the Strategic Defense Initiative program in the 1980s, which hastened the demise and eventual breakup of the Soviet Union.

The troubled Soviet economy tried, but could not keep up with U.S. defense spending. In the end, Reagan's program, known commonly as "Star Wars," was never deployed or developed.

Now, the United States plans to deploy parts of an antimissile system in Central Europe.

The missiles in Poland and radar in the Czech Republic are part of a National Missile Defense program meant to protect North America and Europe. Some have dubbed the system "son of Star Wars."

Moscow has criticized the plan, saying the Central European structures are directed against Russia and see it as a U.S. ploy to begin a new arms race.

The United States, for its part, has denied that the shield is directed against Russia and has said that the shield is intended to defend against threats from "rogue states" like North Korea and Iran.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Victoria Nuland, speaking today to RFE/RL in Prague, denied Russian allegations that the United States intends to start a new arms race.

"We just find it ludicrous, frankly. President Bush and President Putin presided over one of the deepest cuts in strategic weaponry for both sides, Moscow and Washington, in history. That should be the legacy of these two guys. That is the legacy that my president believes in for their time in office," Nuland said.

Domestic Opposition

The missile shield also faces opposition in the U.S. Congress.

Some experts and politicians in the United States have questioned the effectiveness of the antimissile system's technology and the impact it could have on the United States' relations with Europe.

Currently, the Democratic-contolled Congress is considering cutting the Pentagon's request for $310 million to begin developing the program.

Russia also has its own domestic concerns. Analysts say that in Russia, talk of a new Cold War or a new arms race is primarily aimed at a domestic audience -- in a year that will see Russian parliamentary elections and the run-up to the presidential election in March 2008.

Military analyst Aleksandr Golts says Kremlin officials want to show that Russia is a superpower once again.

"They want to show that it can still compete with the United States in this field. But no one takes such possibilities seriously. It's all PR and propaganda, I think," Golts says.

Bush and Putin will have opportunities to smooth out differences between Russia and the United States. First, at the G8 summit in Germany next week and then on July 1-2 in Kennebunkport, Maine, where the Bush family has a oceanside residence.