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#15 - JRL 2006-203 - JRL Home
Moscow Times
September 8, 2006
WTO Stalemate Said to Undermine Putin
By Lynn Berry

By failing to reach an agreement with Russia on its accession to the World Trade Organization, the United States is undermining President Vladimir Putin and strengthening the hand of the siloviki, a senior Kremlin official said Thursday evening.

The official denied that the siloviki in the Kremlin had won the struggle for power over the more liberal camp represented by Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. The siloviki, he said, had no role in government strategy, only in its implementation.

But if the United States refused to sign off on Russia's WTO bid soon, it should not be surprised if the siloviki win, the official said, speaking to a group of foreign Russia experts on condition he not be further identified.

"For us young reformers, Putin is our hope," he said in response to a question from Andrew Kuchins of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The WTO game is directly related to the siloviki," the official said. "These people who are playing the game don't understand what's going to happen if we don't get a deal at this time."

Expectations had been high that an agreement on the WTO would be signed in time for the Group of Eight summit in July, but talks broke down on the eve of the summit over the issue of U.S. meat imports. Both sides expressed hope at the time that a deal could be reached by late October, but tensions have only grown since, with Gref warning U.S. trade negotiators that Russia would scrap agreements on all meat imports if the October deadline was not met.

Russian officials have denied that decisions on the participation of U.S. oil companies in the development of Gazprom's Shtokman field and on Boeing's bid to sell planes to Aeroflot were linked to a WTO agreement. But the Kremlin official said all three issues were tied in the sense that it was wrong for the United States to expect favorable treatment from Russia on the issues it cares about while denying Russia entry into the WTO.

When asked by Angela Stent, professor of government at Georgetown University, how the WTO negotiations should play forward now, he said a political decision was needed from U.S. President George W. Bush.

"We have to get the message across to Bush: 'Boys, stop drinking Russian blood,'" the official said.

Ariel Cohen of The Heritage Foundation followed up on the issue, and he and the official traded barbs on the degree of pressure each president was under at home from the agricultural lobby. Cohen said Bush was in a relatively strong position because he was leaving office soon. The Kremlin official said Putin also was leaving office, but there was a difference: "Putin has to leave a person who will continue his policies."

The group of visiting Russia experts, part of what has come to be called the Valdai Discussion Club, was expected to meet with Putin on Saturday.