| JRL HOME | SUPPORT | SUBSCRIBE | RESEARCH & ANALYTICAL SUPPLEMENT | |
Old Saint Basil's Cathedral in MoscowJohnson's Russia List title and scenes of Saint Petersburg
Excerpts from the JRL E-Mail Community :: Founded and Edited by David Johnson

#4 - JRL 2006-140 - JRL Home
Political Analysts Believe Putin's Successor To Be named in Fall 2007

MOSCOW. June 16 (Interfax) - Russian political analysts believe that the name of Russian President Vladimir Putin's successor will be declared in fall 2007.

"We will find out about this in fall 2007," Politika foundation PresidentvVyacheslav Nikonov told Interfax on Friday.

"As of now, anything said on this score is fortune-telling and nothing can bevforecast by means of political analysis. But those who adhere to thevtwo-successor version should remember that this contradicts Putin'svprofessional style," the expert said.

For example, no one predicted that Mikhail Fradkov would head the government,vwhile Sergey Mironov and Boris Gryzlov would become speakers in the FederationvCouncil and the State Duma respectively, Nikonov said.

A successor is likely to head the government, because "this is a tested andvsimple way to secure the continuity of the authorities," he said.

"I think that changes in the government will begin by fall 2007. These changesvwill be the base for the future administration," Nikonov said.

Another political expert, Mark Urnov, the president of the analytical programsvfoundation Expertise, shares Nikonov's opinion on the timing issue.

"This is likely to happen in fall 2007. However, I still have doubts therevwon't be a third term. The third term and the successor scenarios are equallyvprobable, fifty-fifty," Urnov told Interfax on Friday.

Experts say that First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Russian DeputyPrime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and Russian Railroads CompanyvCEO Vladimir Yakunin are among possible successors.

"However, personnel affairs are too complicated to predict. A governor may takevthe presidential post as well: 'Hey, he is one of us and is not from the St. Petersburg team,'" Urnov said.

Earlier Putin told journalists in Shanghai that someone who is not entirely well-known may become Russian president and he may not be on "the two-man list (Medvedev, Ivanov)."

Putin, when asked about his attitude to polls showing that the majority of Russians favor a third term, said he is thankful to Russians. "I believe that the results of polls are unbiased. However, I think that such a decision would undermine my certainty in the rightness of what I am doing. One cannot demand people to obey the legislation, since you violate it yourself," the president said.