December 15, 1997 
This Date's Issues:    1433• 1434 

Johnson's Russia List
#1434
15 December 1997
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. UPI: Pike catches Russian fisherman.
2. UPI: Russian cold snap breaks records.
3. St. Petersburg Times editorial: Simple Cold Could Turn 
Into Something Far Nastier.
4. Dale Herspring: Lebed.
5. Jacob Kipp: Lebed's Autobiography.
6. St. Petersburg Times: Jonas Bernstein, Populist Ruler Turns 
Tsar.
7. AP: Yeltsin Works From Sanitarium.
8. Interfax: Left-Wing Forces Suffer Defeat In Moscow Elections.
9. Interfax-Argumenty i Fakty: Vitaly Gan, "RUSSIA, USA TO TRAVERSE 
A ROCKY ROAD.
10. RIA Novosti: ON THE DAY OF FIVE YEARS OF HIS PREMIERSHIP, 
VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN SAYS HE LOOKS TO THE FUTURE WITH OPTIMISM.
11. AFP: Sun is set to rise on economy in Russia, E.Europe: OECD.
12. Boston Globe: David Filipov, Russia-made starts making a comeback. 
13. Los Angeles Times: Vanora Bennett, Capitalism Brings New Smiles to 
Russia. Health: Improved dental care is pricey, but many gladly grin 
and pay for it.
14. RFE/RL NEWSLINE: NEMTSOV SUPPORTS CHILEAN ECONOMIC MODEL.
15. Jamestown Foundation Monitor: "IMF SURRENDERS TO RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT," 
JOURNALIST CHARGES. (Konstantin Levin).
16. RIA Novosti: RUSSIAN POPULATION HOLDS 30-35 BILLION DOLLARS --
ECONOMICS MINISTER YEVGENI YASIN.] 

*******

#1
Pike catches Russian fisherman

MOSCOW, Dec. 15 (UPI) _ A fisherman near Petrozavodsk (``peh-troh-
zah-VODSK''), northern Russia, caught more than he bargained for when a
freshwater pike weighing over 3 pounds bit its captor on the nose and
wouldn't let go. 
Itar-Tass says the fisherman was slightly drunk after celebrating his
prize catch and held the pike close to his face, telling it, ``I've caught
you at last, my darling!'' 
The fish promptly bit him on the nose and held its jaws shut. 
Amazed colleagues rushed to the man's aid and chopped the pike's body
off, leaving its head still holding the man's nose. 
But the fishermen couldn't release the pike's jaws and the poor victim
had to be taken to a hospital. 
A doctor managed to unclamp the jaws to free the poor fisherman's face,
by cutting the pike's jaw ligaments. 

******

#2
Russian cold snap breaks records

MOSCOW, Dec. 15 (UPI) _ A blast of cold air from the Russian Arctic broke
weather records in Moscow, with temperatures dropping to minus 25
Centigrade (13 Fahrenheit). 
The weather center says Sunday night's cold snap broke a 105-year-old
record for Moscow but warned the city should expect temperatures as low as
minus 38 Centigrade (minus 36 Fahrenheit). 
Officials tell United Press International at least 30 people are
hospitalized with frostbite and hypothermia and one person has died. 
City officials have ordered primary schools closed for the next four
days because of the low temperatures. 
The weather center says areas northeast of Moscow could expect
temperatures to plunge below minus 45 Centigrade (minus 49 Fahrenheit) in
the next two days. 
A spokesman tells United Press International these temperatures would
break some records in Russia, although parts of eastern Siberia have seen
temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Centigrade (minus 110 Fahrenheit)
in previous winters. 

******

#3
St. Petersburg Times
DECEMBER 15-21, 1997
Editorial
A Simple Cold Could Turn Into Something Far Nastier 

When China's Deng Xiao Peng would fall ill from time to time, Reuters 
would not turn frantically to the White House for comment. Stock markets 
rarely shudder when German Chancellor Helmut Kohl announces he's caught 
a cold.
But when Boris Yeltsin looks unwell, U.S. President Bill Clinton 
reassures the American public, while The Washington Post tensely notes 
the stability of the ruble.
Why? In part because the last time Yeltsin was sick, things happened 
that put into doubt the Kremlin's commitment to democracy. 
As Yeltsin awaited his by-pass operation in 1996, Prime Minister Viktor 
Chernomyrdin and chief of staff Anatoly Chubais were left to mind the 
Kremlin. Those two suddenly announced the creation of a new body, the 
Cheka, to collect taxes. In Lenin's day, the Cheka were the secret 
police - the forerunner of the KGB.
Chubais said he had chosen such a historically weighted name to 
communicate the seriousness of the tax shortfall emergency. (Amidst this 
crisis, by the way, the government was still granting enormous tax 
breaks to the politically connected, including a $1 billion write-off to 
Uneximbank and billions more to the oil and gas sector.)
Then on a visit to St. Petersburg in October 1996, just days before 
Yeltsin's heart surgery, Chubais announced that the Cheka was not 
"temporary," as it had been labeled, and said its mandate was to enforce 
better obedience to all laws and decrees and to coordinate all of the 
law enforcement organs. He then told journalists that the Cheka was part 
of a program of "consolidating power" because "the consolidation of 
power, instead of constant mutual intrigues, instead of public 
discussions, instead of endless arguments, is exactly what the country 
needs."
This was about the regime was preparing for Yeltsin's death. Under the 
Constitution, new elections would have had to be held three months after 
Yeltsin's death; the winner then would have likely been general 
Alexander Lebed. 
With his talk of consolidating power into his hands and ending "public 
discussions" (i.e., democratic debate), Chubais was signaling the 
Kremlin's intention not to hold those elections.
"All is being prepared for the moment Yeltsin dies," Sergei Markov, a 
political analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 
told The St. Petersburg Times then. "The task is to thwart outsiders who 
might come to power through elections."
So here we go again. It's far too early to say anything definitive about 
the president's health. But the state of the health of Russian democracy 
has long been known to be grim. 

********

#4
Date: Mon, 15 Dec 1997 08:26:18 -0600 (CST)
From: Dale R Herspring <falka@ksu.edu>
Subject: Lebed

I thank David for raising the issue of Lebed, because I don't think we can
dismiss him as some I spoke with in Washington would like to do. I also
think it is a bit naive to assume -- as some are -- that he is just a dumb
soldier, or that he is playing games with his public image. I too have
read the vast majority of his interviews and tracked his career for some
time if for no other reason than he is/was a senior military officer and
the armed forces is an area of special interest to me.
Having followed and dealt with the Soviet/Russian military over the years,
Lebed bears a strong resemblance to a number of senior military officers I
have encountered, sometimes only through their writings -- more often in
personal conversations or meetings. Two points need to be made about
Lebed. First, he gives all the signs of having lived in a military ghetto
for the majority of his life. Few Westerners seem to be able to grasp the
fact that traditionally the Soviet/Russian military has been more isolated
from civilian society than has been the case with Western militaries.
Furthermore, the Soviet military was less political (defined as being
active participants in the political process) than in the West. Part of
Lebed's seemingly clunky approach is a result of his unfamiliarity with
civilian society. He has learned a lot since he appeared on the political
stage -- from Pinochet and Mormon is a scum religion to the present --
more careful approach. 
Lebed's second characteristic -- which comes from his
personality and his long term military service, is his tendency to be
both blunt and shocking in his comments. I can't count the number of
times I have heard such comments from senior Soviet military officers
(even from naval officers, who tend to be more nuanced and sophisticated
than their army colleagues). Most of those who review books like Lebed's
latest pride themselves on being intellectuals. Lebed is not and makes no
pretensions of being one. For that reason, I think it is a bit silly to
look for the kind of sophistication that one would expect from a
Brzezinski or Kissinger in Lebed.
For reasons of succinctness permit to suggest that Lebed still remains an
important actor on the Russian stage, and to dismiss him as a Neanderthal
or to make fun out of his unsophisticated approach may make the writer
feel good, but I suspect that it will be self-defeating in the long run --
especially if we wake up some day only to discover that President Lebed is
much more formidable and bright than we gave him credit for. 

*******

#5
From: "Jacob Kipp" <KIPPJ@LEAV-EMH1.ARMY.MIL>
Subject: Lebed's Autobiography
Date: Mon, 15 Dec 1997 09:11:00 -0600

The article that I did last year on Lebed as presidential candidate
[Problems of Post-Communism] was based in large part on my analysis of
the Russian edition of this book with its distinct title. I think it
was a mistake to change the title and that may have much to do with the
reviewers' problems. In that article, "The Political Ballet of General
Aleksandr Ivanovich Lebed," I stressed Lebed's claims to be both a
nationalist and populist. This book was, like Zhirinovsky's books,
part autobiography and part campaign tract. In my analysis I concluded
that Lebed was a good soldier and officer -- yes brawling goes with that
profession-- that he became disillusioned with civilian leadership
starting in Afghanistan and continuing through perestroyka and that he
was used by his political and military superiors to accomplish their
ends. That was the beginning of his emancipation. He is a nationalist,
a populist, and an instinctive authoritarian [that goes with the
profession of arms, its emphasis on discipline and hierarchy]. But he
is also distrustful of current elites [communist and post-communist] and
willing to seek power through the electoral process. I am not sure his
star stands that highly in the current political constellations of
Russia, when many soldiers are rallying to General Rokhlin's Movement.
But in my judgment Lebed's record on peace in Chechnya gives him some
claim to Russian national sympathies. And he has chosen electoral
politics as the appropriate road to power. In international affairs I'd
judge Lebed a nationalist and pragmatist. Ben Lambeth made a very
strong case for Lebed as a legitimate democratic alternative in his Rand
Study. I have been more ambivalent because of the persistent
instability of Russian domestic politics. Lebed remains a charismatic
figure, but he has not created a real national party or been able to
build a parliamentary faction. It was probably a profound personal
mistake for him to join the Yeltsin team in the summer of 1996. He took
serious political risks in pushing for an edn to the fighting in
Chechnya and that cost him his post.

*******

#6
St. Petersburg Times
DECEMBER 15-21, 1997
Populist Ruler Turns Tsar 
By Jonas Bernstein

ONCE upon a time, there was a political leader who won support from 
millions of average Russians by defying the conventions and interests of 
the ruling elite. 
Unlike the dinosaurs of the Politburo - who, while ruling in the name of 
the masses, had spent 40 years viewing them only from the window of a 
ZiL or from a podium on Red Square - this apparatchik actually mingled 
with the common folk. 
What's more, he broke the mold by attacking the heart of the political 
order that had nurtured him - the nomenklatura system, through which 
functionaries were apportioned privileges according to their positions 
within the party hierarchy.
While Boris Yeltsin's populism during the late perestroika period made 
some within the democratically-minded intelligentsia nervous, they 
eventually rallied behind him and helped propel him into the Russian 
presidency. By the time the first installment of Yeltsin's memoirs was 
published, even tough-minded anti-Communists like former dissident and 
political prisoner Vladimir Bukovsky were convinced that the former 
Sverdlovsk Party boss who became Russia's first elected president had 
undergone a genuine conversion to democratic values.
It is remarkable how things have come full circle over the last five 
years. The new weekly Vlast, or Power, recently devoted a section to 
Yeltsin's transformation into "Father of the Nation."
One contributor, the writer Alexander Kabakov, noted that the one-time 
fighter against nomenklatura privilege today has "at least five" 
official residences in the Moscow area. Stalin, Kabakov noted, had only 
two, along with a small residence in the Kremlin. 
A second article, based on information leaked from Yeltsin's security 
service, gave an insight into the almost feudal order which has emerged 
under Yeltsin. 
According to Vlast, when Yeltsin travels to the regions, officials from 
the locale he is visiting vie to be allowed a position in the 
presidential motorcade. In Russia's new feudal democratic order, this is 
considered a mark of prestige.
Such processions are a good method of determining who's who: according 
to Vlast, the higher a local official's rank in the pecking order, the 
closer his car is to the presidential limo. As a result, each regional 
official takes his own official car, meaning that the motorcade usually 
consists of 30 to 40 vehicles. On the way from the airport, the 
presidential limo and security cars often accelerate to 140 kilometers 
per hour - a measure designed to foil potential snipers. The local 
officials' cars are often unable to keep up with the Kremlin fleet, 
meaning that the cortege spreads out over several kilometers, totally 
blocking local traffic.
As Kabakov noted in his essay, what is remarkable about Yeltsin's 
transformation into the "Father of the Nation" - or Boris I, as he now 
likes to call himself - is how it seems to be universally accepted. Even 
many of Yeltsin's former irreconcilable enemies, who once routinely 
denounced him as "the head of a criminal regime", today assume that "the 
approval of the president is the final and irrefutable argument," 
Kabakov wrote.
Some of Russia's leading "democrats" and Western observers alike have 
bought into this logic. Last month, for example, First Deputy Prime 
Minister Anatoly Chubais told America's mass-circulation daily USA Today 
that Yeltsin had the "historical right" to pick his successor. It 
apparently did not occur to the newspaper to point out to Chubais that 
in democracies, the electorate has "the historical right" to decide who 
succeeds the head of state.
Even First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, the latest great hope 
for Russian democracy, openly supports Yeltsin's transformation into an 
unofficial monarch. "You know, without a tsar in Russia there is 
discord," Nemtsov said in an interview last month with NTV television. 
"When supreme power weakens, civil war develops." And the energetic 
young reformer made it clear he was not simply advocating constitutional 
democracy. "Russia cannot have the English system of power," he said; 
what it needs is a "supreme arbiter."
In a sense, Nemtsov is right. Yeltsin created a system based on 
balancing and playing off the interests of competing 
financial-bureaucratic clans. Without a "supreme arbiter," Russia might 
well plunge into chaos. Whether such a system can resolve other problems 
- continued economic stagnation, massive debt and payments arrears, tens 
of thousands of deaths yearly from poisoned vodka - is another question. 

*******

#7
Yeltsin Works From Sanitarium 
December 15, 1997

MOSCOW (AP) -- President Boris Yeltsin reviewed documents at a sanitarium
where he's recovering from a viral infection, and his overall condition was
unchanged, his spokesman said today. 
Yeltsin's temperature was normal and he was going over government papers
as he has for the past several days, spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky was
quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. 
The Russian leader has been at the Barvikha health resort outside Moscow
since Wednesday. His doctors have told him he needs 10-12 days of rest to
recover from a respiratory viral infection. 
Yeltsin was shown on national television Sunday and complained of a sore
throat and of feeling weak but said his doctors had assured him he would be
better soon. 
``In general I'm not feeling well,'' said Yeltsin, 66, speaking in a
hoarse voice. 
Dr. Renat Akchurin, the president's heart surgeon, said Yeltsin's
condition ``remains relatively stable.'' The doctor stressed that Yeltsin's
current illness was unrelated to the heart bypass operation he underwent 13
months ago. 
The president said he was working about four hours a day on stacks of
documents and reports that his staff brought him daily. 
Yeltsin's scheduled events for this week have been canceled. 
But Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, the man who would take over if
Yeltsin was not able to perform his duties, left Russia today for a two-day
visit to Turkey. 

******

#8
Left-Wing Forces Suffer Defeat In Moscow Elections

MOSCOW, Dec 15 (Interfax-Moscow) - Not a single candidate representing
Moscow's leftist bloc or the alliance led by Nikolai Gonchar has been
elected to the Moscow city Duma, according to the preliminary results of
the elections in 35 electoral districts December 14. 
Voter turnout was about 30%. 
Nikolai Gonchar, who was viewed as a leader in Moscow's second electoral
district and a likely candidate for the post of Moscow Duma chairman,
received 27% of the votes and was defeated by a member of the Democratic
Choice of Russia party, Moscow Duma deputy Mikhail Moskvin- Tarkhanov, who
collected over 36% of the votes. 
Democratic candidates are likely to secure a large number of seats in
the Moscow Duma. According to preliminary reports, seven seats have been
won by the Democratic Choice of Russia and by a number of other candidates
supported by this party: three by Yabloko and one by Our Home Is Russia. As
reported earlier, the democratic candidates had agreed on the eve of the
elections that they would not compete in the same electoral districts. 
The bloc For Justice, led by First Vice Mayor Oleg Tolkachev, secured
one seat in the Moscow Duma. A representative of the constitutional
democrats also obtained a seat. 
Among the losers are representative of the Democratic Choice of Russia
party Arkady Murashov; leader of Moscow communists Alexander Kuvayev;
representative of the Young Communist League Igor Malyarov; nationalists
Dmitri Vasilyev (Pamyat) and Ilya Konstantinov; economists and journalists
Nikolai Shmelyov, Larisa Piyasheva and Andrei Nuikin (all members of the
Gonchar bloc); writers Sergei Yesin and Yuri Polyakov; political scientist
Alexander Tsipko and Admiral Eduard Baltin. 
Experts noted that 27 of the candidates elected had been called leaders
in the pre-election campaign by the media. 
Seventeen of the 29 current deputies retained their mandates. Among them
are Moscow Duma chairman Vladimir Platonov and Vice Chairman Alexander
Krutov, and Galina Khovanskaya who is in charge of housing policy. 
Observers noted the success of head of the Avtoline passenger transport
service Oleg Muzyr, director of the Mai company Igor Lisinenko and Deputy
Minister of Justice Andrei Voikov. 
The losers do not intend to question results of the vote. They maintain,
however, that election law was violated in individual instances. 
Vice-Mayor Valery Shantsev told Interfax in an exclusive interview that
he is satisfied with the preliminary results and that the new Duma is
"professional and fit for work." 
He also said that the city executive and legislative authorities will
continue their work "in the previous rhythm for the Muscovites' benefit." 
He said the 17 deputies who have retained their mandates constitute the
backbone of the Moscow Duma. "The new Duma will be based on the principle
of succession. Nothing is more dangerous today than a complete change of
the team," Shantsev said. 
He welcomed the decision of Muscovites not to vote for deputies who "put
enormous capital into advertising," he said. "Muscovites are experienced
and do not vote just for anyone," he said. He thanked them for their
"correct and wise choice," but expressed regret that the voter turnout was
relatively low. 

*******

#9
>From RIA Novosti
Interfax-Argumenty i Fakty, No. 51
December 1997
RUSSIA, USA TO TRAVERSE A ROCKY ROAD
By Vitaly GAN 

An American news magazine's recent issue
pictured the US and Russia as two businessmen who are
no longer young and have little sympathy. But they
know each other's tricks and gimmicks and are content
with striking routine deals.

Unwritten Rules
The new Russia which has emerged out of the USSR's debris
and the US seemed to try and live up to their cardinally
reconsidered roles and places in today's world. Outwardly, the
world has undergone no radical changes: both domestic conflicts
and conflicts between states are still here. 
But the American and Russian strategists's behavioural
patters have become less conspicuous and less aggressive: they
no longer seem to rack their brains over ways to use these
conflicts to extend their respective political and economic
influence beyond the respective national borders. 
One thing they seem to be pondering is acting in line with
unwritten rules that exclude the use of force.
As a result, 'buddy Bill' and 'buddy Boris" exchange calls
and embrace at personal meetings. Moreover, 'buddy Boris' has
'buddy Helmut' and 'buddy Jacques' and may soon have 'buddy
Jiang' in China and 'buddy Ryu' in Japan. 

America's Priorities in Russia
Little wonder that officials on both sides are apt to make
statements to the effect the nuclear parity of the US and the
Russian Federation 'was no longer that important.'
True enough, Washington is concerned over what is seen as
'inadequate' control over nuclear weapons in Russia which one
US political scientist says is still 'topsy-turvy'. At the
same time, one cannot but subscribe to the opinion of the new
US Ambassador in Moscow James Collins who said that the two
countries' relations were resting on a firm basis. 
But their relations are not problem-free, of course. The
indignant campaign around the US stubborn line at expanding
NATO all the way to the Russian border has subsided somewhat:
Moscow hardly had any instrument of countering it apart from
statements of indignation and rejection. Washington is now
focusing on a concept to make a priority the task of containing
Russia's nuclear armaments which are said to be uncontrollable.

Washington is hearing arguments in favour of US purchases
of all materials fit for the arms production which Russia is
prepared to sell. The US should make the purchases instrumental
to force Russian agencies tighten their control over the arms
and weapons-grade materials still remaining in this country. 
The price of this 'most serious' programme is assessed as
standing at 4 billion dollars a year; the Americans intend to
enlist the involvement of their allies in Europe and Japan. 

America's Priorities in the CIS
This kind of interaction is welcome if only because
cooperation is apt to make the world a safer place to live in.
Yet Russian-American contradictions are not out of the
question, in particular when it come to the two conceptual
visions of the rest of the world. 
While Moscow stands for a multi-polar world and rejects
all US claims to global hegemony (Russia's stance is shared by
some European states, in particular France), Washington insists
on its archaic vision of America being a well-nigh chosen
nation to be the only global superpower. 
The US ardour is hard to cool. Take China: Russia's
minister of the atomic industry Viktor Mikhailov once observed
that the "US is doing everything to oust Russia." Or take the
Middle East: the US and Israel have pooled resources to
effectively disengage Russia from the peace process. Russia is
only starting to be diplomatically active in the region (e.g.
in Iraq). 
The former Soviet republics in Central Asia and
Transcaucasia plus Ukraine stand apart. The recent tour of
Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Uzbekistan and Ukraine by First Lady
Hillary Clinton can well be seen as the political probing of
the potential US priorities in the CIS. Mrs. Clinton is known
to have an observant and keen mind which some people say is
superior to the President's. 
The Kremlin is well aware of the American moves and
motives behind them. Thus, President Yeltsin said recently that
the US had "already begun" penetrating Transcaucasia, for one,
and was openly calling it a zone of its interests. 
In any case, the US' more active behaviour in a number of
the CIS states has made Russia turn to Asia in its external
policies. Washington has not missed this fact. The Wall Street
Journal wrote that while ex-foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev was
doing everything to 'lure' the US to Russia, his successor
Yevgeni Primakov is another kind of a politician who pays much
more attention to the situation along Russia's borders.
Primakov is not to be envied: judging by the CIS summit
meeting in Chisinau, many members of the Commonwealth of
Independent States entertain anti-Moscow views. As a result,
one may contend that however complex the processes in the
post-Soviet space may be, there is a clear trend of Russia's
waning influence on the member states. 
But does the US stand to gain? NATO's enlargement and the
poorly disguised attempts to set Moscow at loggerheads with its
immediate neighbours just may play Washington a bad turn.
Obviously, a cornered or offended Russia is not in Washington's
interests which may obtain an adversary where there is none. 
In any case, Russia and the US are yet to go a rocky road
with its ups and downs. Hopefully, the current foreign minister
has been right to point out that one should stake on the
optimists and that pessimism is alien to the Russians.
Washington-Moscow.

*******

#10
ON THE DAY OF FIVE YEARS OF HIS PREMIERSHIP, VIKTOR 
CHERNOMYRDIN SAYS HE LOOKS TO THE FUTURE WITH OPTIMISM

MOSCOW, December 15. (From RIA Novosti correspondent Oleg
Lebedev). On the day marking the fifth anniversary of his
Premiership, Viktor Chernomyrdin said he looked to the future
with optimism. The Prime Minister himself told this to reporters
after voting for candidates to the Moscow City Duma.
According to him, he felt normal today. In these five
years, much has been done, the Premier said. At the same time,
he is far from a thought that "the results were always good."
However, if one makes a study of "what could be done and what we
did over this period, one can draw a conclusion that something
came out of it," the head of government pointed out.
At present, Chernomyrdin emphasised, the Cabinet of
Ministers has a programme of action, Today, we are not where we
stood at the start of the journey, in 1992. What is required of
one nowadays is "simply to do one's job," what is required of
members of the government, "leaders of any calibre" is to show
more responsibility. In his view, much depends on Russia's
regions today, on the kind of situation the heads of subjects of
the Federation create for reform to work.
Viktor Chernomyrdin emphasised that the government's report
to the President will be made. It will cover the results of the
year as a whole and then be made on a regular basis for every
half-year.
Speaking of the possibility of change in the membership of
the government, the Premier said that "so far there are no plans
for this." However, "change takes place in life permanently,"
but one must not dramatise this, he added. Today, the head of
the Cabinet thinks, one should think more of work and its
results, not resignation.
It will be recalled that on December 14, 1992, the
President issued the decree forming the Cabinet of Ministers of
the Russian Federation, in place of the Council of Ministers.
The same decree appointed Viktor Chernomyrdin to be head of the
government. 

********

#11
Sun is set to rise on economy in Russia, E.Europe: OECD 

PARIS, Dec 15 (AFP) - The sun is set to begin rising over the economies of
Russia and countries in eastern Europe which are not members of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the
organisation forecast on Monday. 
In Russia a long period of economic decline had ended this year when the
economy would show growth of 0.5 percent, and next year it would grow by
3.0 percent and by 5.0 percent the following year. 
Inflation continued to fall to nearly 12.0 percent this year from 131.0
percent in 1995, and would steady at about 10.0 percent in 1998 and 1999. 
Interest rates should continue to ease following a spectacular decline
in the autumn of this year and should fall to a 12-monthly rate of less
than 20.0 percent, having exceeded 100.0 percent in 1996. 
Russia continues to face a difficult budget situation owing mainly to
severe problems of tax collection. A deficit by public administrations,
amounting to 7.0 percent in 1997, was likely to amount to 5.0 percent in
1998 and in 1999. 
A recovery of investment was hampered by many obstacles and notably by
inadequacy of capital markets. The number of finance houses in Russia had
declined by nearly 2,300 at the beginning of 1996 to about 1,800 in August
1997. 
Since last year official policy had been to allow the currency to
depreciate within a given range of fluctuation. 
The OECD reported that gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia was
beginning to expand and said that imports and exports should grow in
volume. A surplus on the balance of payments current account would decline
regularly from 11.0 percent this year to 9.0 percent in 1998 and 7.0
percent in 1999, it said. 
But the organisation saw no prospect that unemployment would improve.
The rate of unemployment of 9.5 percent in 1997 would rise to 10.0 percent
in the following two years. 
Unemployment was worsening in most countries in central and eastern
Europe. 
The economy of Ukraine was steadying but GDP continued to fall, by 10.0
percent last year and 4.0 percent in 1997. The rate of structural reform,
and notably privatisation, lacked drive and this had caused the
International Monetary Fund to delay a loan. 
Bulgaria and Romania, which had faced very difficulty economic
conditions at the beginning of the year, were experiencing the positive
effects of stabilisation programmes. 
The Romanian economy would grow by 2.0 percent in 1998 and 6.0 percent
in 1999 and that of Bulgaria by 1.0 percent and 3.0 percent, following
negative rates in 1996. 
The economies of Slovakia, of Slovenia and of the three Baltic countries
continued to develop but increases of the deficits on the current account
reflected persistent problems of competitiveness. 
Slovakian GDP would grow by 4.5 percent in 1998 and by 4.0 percent in
1999 and the Slovenian economy would grow by 4.0 percent in each year. 

*******

#12
Boston Globe
15 December 1997
[for personal use only]
FOREIGN JOURNAL
Russia-made starts making a comeback 
By David Filipov

SARATOV, Russia - The man in the doctor's outfit stared out of the TV
screen at Natalya Yefremova, gestured at a table full of brightly packaged
medicines, and made his play for her heart and purse. 
''Western pharmaceutical goods are so expensive, and often of unreliable
quality,'' began the man, pushing the bottles and boxes aside, as
Yefremova, a hotel administrator in this Volga heartland city, nodded her
assent. 
''Now you can buy our own Russian-made products, and they're cheaper,
too,'' continued the man, as the camera panned to another assortment of
brightly packaged medicines. The Russian pharmaceutical company's name
flashed on the screen and the ''doctor'' went for the kill: ''Best of all,
the money stays in Russia.''
What happened next was a marketing manager's dream come true. 
''They're right,'' Yefremova declared, turning to address two of her
colleagues. ''Why should we pay foreigners for products that are no better
than ours?''
The episode captured the way Russian consumers' attitudes have changed,
six years after the start of market reforms, when bare shelves were
suddenly flooded with Western products. 
Back then, Western imports had three things going for them: novelty,
availability, and the perception of high quality. But now, Russian
products, more familiar and often cheaper, are all the rage. Surveys show
that two of three Russians find domestic food products fresher and better
tasting than imports. 
Local food producers have responded to the demand. Once, it was
impossible to find domestically produced long-life milk. Now, colorfully
packaged varieties with names like ''33 Cows'' and ''Little House in the
Village'' dominate store shelves. Traditional Russian foods, like
prostokvasha - which is like yogurt, only thicker - and ryazhenka - a
slightly thicker version of prostokvasha - have regained popularity even in
Moscow's upscale supermarkets, where European imports once held sway. 
As the pharmaceuticals ad that won over Natalya Yefremova indicates, the
desire for domestic goods is spreading out from the realm of food. 
While Russians continue to resist certain domestic items - even
down-and-out farmers in the Saratov region prefer Japanese televisions to
domestic models, which have never really shaken their Soviet-era reputation
for spontaneously blowing up - Russian-made stereo and computer equipment
is starting to make a dent in local markets, as well as in the stereotype
of Russia as a land of shoddy workmanship. 
''People are tired of the idea that Russia can't make anything of its
own,'' says Sergei Kostin, host of ''National Interest,'' a popular
television show on domestic issues. ''When they see nothing but Snickers
bars, it reminds them of how low our country has sunk.''
President Boris N. Yeltsin, whom nationalists blame for the
''Snickerization of Russia,'' has reacted with a ''Buy Russian'' campaign. 
Some local media have happily jumped on board. Privately owned NTV
television, in a report last week comparing Russian and imported butter,
flashed its conclusion across the screen: ''Buy domestic butter.''
Some Western makers are catching on to the patriotic mood. 
Ads for imported products, once produced abroad and dubbed into Russian,
are now locally filmed featuring quintessentially local characters, such as
Emma Petrovna, the nosy communal apartment-mate who pitches detergent for
Procter & Gamble. 
And then there is the ad for Yava Gold cigarettes. Billboards all over
Moscow depict a huge pack of the smokes hurtling toward the Statue of
Liberty like a meteorite. The slogan, ''Retaliatory strike,'' is clearly
aimed at the way Western-brand cigarettes have taken over Russia's tobacco
market. It's almost enough to make you forget that Yava Golds are produced
by the British-American Tobacco Co. 
David Filipov is the Globe's Moscow bureau chief. 

******

#13
Los Angeles Times
December 15, 1997 
[for personal use only]
Capitalism Brings New Smiles to Russia 
Health: Improved dental care is pricey, but many gladly grin and pay for it. 
By VANORA BENNETT, Times Staff Writer
 
MOSCOW--An old cliche about Soviet Russia was that no one here smiled.
But one of the secrets long hidden behind the Iron Curtain was the millions
of gapped, iron-toothed mouths, mauled by the most basic of dentistry
techniques and the most primitive of Warsaw Pact equipment. 
     Now Russians, growing self-assured as their lives begin to stabilize
after years of political and economic upheaval, are finding time and money
to rectify the situation. Suddenly, they want to make their post-Soviet
smiles the gleaming white of omnipresent Western toothpaste ads. 
     "Foreign companies that produce and sell toothpaste and hygiene
products are seriously interested in the Russian consumer market and are
very active in placing ads," said Victor Kolomiyets of Media-Service, a
branch of the Video International advertising firm. "Four or five years
ago, there wasn't a single toothpaste ad on television. Now you see them on
every channel." 
     The number of advertising hours on Russian television is growing
sharply, but the time devoted to toothpaste commercials is growing even
faster, Kolomiyets said. 
     In January, Russians were exposed to 9.6 hours of toothpaste ads,
which then made up 5.5% of total advertising time; by October, they could
watch 31 hours of dental ads, which by the fall accounted for 6.5% of the
total time Russian television stations were giving over to advertising. 
     If an average Russian family had left its TV on all the time in the
first 10 months of 1997, members would have been exposed to 134.9 hours of
toothpaste commercials. 
     The ads are having their desired effect. 
     Tanya Nesterova, 50, decided last spring that it was time to have her
entire mouth seen to. The teacher turned housekeeper, a mother of two who
recently separated from her husband, paid 8 million rubles ($1,500) to have
ceramic crowns put on all her upper and lower teeth. In the U.S., the cost
of a single crown ranges from $500 to $1,000, but the average wage is much
higher. 
     The once-shy Nesterova, who used to hide her mouth behind a cautious
hand whenever she laughed, admits she was transformed by the month of
dental visits, in which her old teeth were filed down to dark brown stumps
before the crowns were slotted into place. 
     "Now I smile all the time, of course," she said happily. "It's done
wonders for my self-esteem. 
     "When I was young, I used to be terrified of the dentist. I never used
to go, and that was where the problem started. I got my first false tooth
when my daughters were born, when I was 34, and after that it was downhill
all the way. Finally, I decided it was time for a fresh start." 
     It would have been impossible to make the same decision four or five
years ago, Nesterova said, when the Soviet Union had recently collapsed and
panic-stricken, politically explosive new Russia was in the grip of
galloping inflation that hit 2,500% in 1992. 
     "If it had been then, maybe I'd have had to go without new teeth," she
said. "There are plenty of people around who don't have teeth because they
didn't have money at the right time." 
     Nowadays, life for ordinary people has become more stable. Nesterova,
who earns $400 a month from two part-time jobs and did not have the entire
sum she needed to pay the dentist upfront, still had no trouble finding
friends who would lend her half the money without worrying that the ruble
will have tumbled in value before they are repaid. 
     To cope with the new demand for dentists, private clinics have sprung
up around Moscow. The Moscow Dentistry Institute is the overbooked
destination of choice for students hoping to get rich in their profession. 
     The new clinics add choices for patients who grew up going to the
dentist at their local state medical centers but grew tired of the long
waiting lists and delays at the cash-strapped state facilities. The clinics
have also gone some way toward replacing the dental offices in huge Soviet
factories that once gave their workers free care. (Factory workers today
are lucky to get their wages, never mind dental care.) 
     But not everyone is happy with the changes. Irina Shinkarenko, who has
been head dentist at central Moscow's run-down Clinic No. 3 for more than a
decade, is scathing about the free-market ways of post-Soviet dentistry. 
     "There's too much competition nowadays," she said. "In the good old
days, people used to get in line at 6 a.m. to see us. But now, people come
less. To persuade them to turn up here, we have to do things we'd never
have dreamed of doing before--like giving out free advertising calendars
with our name and address on the back. 
     "Our problem is that we don't have the most modern of technology,"
Shinkarenko added in a long litany of regrets. "Our equipment isn't
bad--our drills are Czech--but they're not the top-of-the-range Western
stuff that would attract wealthy customers." 
     In the long, bleak corridors of her clinic, mostly elderly people wait
stoically, either standing or perched on scruffy chairs. Several clutch
white handkerchiefs to swollen mouths. Everyone is silent. 
     The typed price list taped to the glass partition in Clinic No. 3's
chilly reception area focuses almost exclusively on remedial work:
fillings, false teeth and crowns. 
     The price of an ordinary checkup is not listed because the idea of
preventive dentistry is still little respected in Russia. Nesterova, the
woman with the new smile, only laughs at the widespread Western notion of
going twice a year to the dentist without being in agony first. 
     "Of course, it's up to each person to decide how often to go," she
said. "I do know one person who goes all the time, my auntie; she has them
push and prod at her teeth when there's nothing wrong at all. I think it's
because she's got nothing else to do with her life. It all depends on the
person." 
     Educating people into looking after their teeth before they rot is one
of the main goals of the new private clinics for well-off clients. 
     "Whether or not you choose our clinic, we strongly advise you not to
wait for the critical moment but to visit a dentist not less than twice a
year," exhorts the glossy promotion leaflet of the Radix clinic, a favorite
of Russia's super-rich. "Visiting the Radix clinic will give you full
satisfaction, because of our comfortable conditions and welcoming
atmosphere." 
     The very existence of clinics such as Radix is a sign of Russia's new
confidence. Designed to lure back the wealthy, who have spent the
post-Soviet years having their teeth flossed and glossed in the West, the
Radix clinic offers conditions luxurious enough to persuade even the most
nervous millionaire to face the chair in his own country again. 
     Coffee brews in a corner. Marble floors gleam. The magazines of the
ultra-wealthy are scattered on glass tables. A dental hygienist has a
corner salon, and a glittering glass cabinet displays Oral-B dental
products. Nurses smile dazzlingly as they slip in and out of surgical rooms
equipped with high-tech drills and chairs. Clients can forget their worries
during their examinations by slipping on electronic eye masks inside which
they can watch the latest movie releases. 
     Radix head dentist Aslan Kanukoyev surveyed the realm he created just
over two years ago, after taking out a loan from banker acquaintances, with
profound satisfaction. Its futuristic techniques have attracted more than
5,000 clients. 
     "I always dreamed of the day when I could have a place like this," he
said. 
     But, so far, clinics like his are out of reach of the average Russian.
It costs $250 to have a tooth crowned here, Kanukoyev said. 
     "Of course, we do have some . . . let's call them middle-class . . .
patients, who come to us because they recognize the quality of our work,"
he added. "But I don't know where they get the money from." 

*********

#14
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 1, No. 179, Part I, 15 December 1997

NEMTSOV SUPPORTS CHILEAN ECONOMIC MODEL.
Speaking in Venezuela on the last day of his tour to Mexico and
Latin America, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov
advocated the Chilean variant of economic reform for Russia, an
RFE/RL correspondent in Caracas reported on 12 December.
Nemtsov argued that having implemented liberal economic
policies, Chile has achieved 10 years of strong economic growth,
a stable currency, and a good level of social protection for its
population while not being burdened with a budget deficit. He
added that "the Chilean economy does not depend on American
capital [investment]. That experience is important for Russia.
We cannot count on attracting a large quantity of American
money now, for both political and economic reasons." Back in
Moscow on 14 December, Nemtsov told ITAR-TASS that the
Russian government is trying to implement "democratic
people's capitalism," which he argued is far better than
"oligarchic" capitalism. LB

********

#15
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
15 December 1997

"IMF SURRENDERS TO RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT," JOURNALIST CHARGES. Last week's news
that the IMF mission to Moscow is to recommend that the Fund should release
the latest quarterly tranche of its $10.2 billion loan to Russia was greeted
with relief by the Russian government, but met with considerably more
skepticism from financial journalist Konstantin Levin. Writing under the
headline "The IMF has surrendered," Levin said the IMF mission had been
"forced" by Russian government officials to change the rules and judge
Russia's economic performance not on what the country has achieved in 1997
but on what it promises to achieve in 1998. (Kommersant-daily, December 11)
Instead of writing scholarly monographs about privatization, Levin said,
Chubais and his colleagues should write a mass circulation handbook on "how
to get large, privileged loans from international financial organizations." 

The IMF suspended loan payments in October, blaming the Russian government's
poor tax collection performance. After that happened, Levin writes, First
Deputy Premier Anatoly Chubais came up with the argument that "It is much
better to look ahead: the government should be judged not on the taxes it
has collected, but on how it plans to spend them." Levin says this is the
rationale behind the latest presidential decree, "On Improving the State
Financial Sphere," which, Chubais told a press conference on December 12,
will curb state spending by forbidding government ministries from taking out
loans with commercial banks. (Itar-Tass, December 12) Meanwhile, Levin says,
the Russian government was telling the IMF mission that tax collection had
improved slightly in October and November. "The fact that this growth was
caused for seasonal reasons," Levin comments, "did not concern either the
Russian or the international officials." He says the goals of the Russian
government and the IMF coincide: the government wants the money that the IMF
can supply, while the IMF wants to be able to show the world that it has
saved the Russian economy from collapse. (Kommersant-daily, December 11)

********

#16
RUSSIAN POPULATION HOLDS 30-35 BILLION DOLLARS --
ECONOMICS MINISTER YEVGENI YASIN 

MOSCOW, DECEMBER 15 /RIA NOVOSTI'S CORRESPONDENT ALEXEI
MESHKOV/ -- The Russian population now holds on hand between 30
and 35 billion dollars, Russian Economics Minister Yevgeni Yasin
told today's sitting of the consultative council of federation
entities for international and foreign economic relations under
the Foreign Ministry. 
Until recently the population's "free" money went on
purchases of hard currency. All "fluctuations" in this country,
like political and economic cataclysms and the upcoming
redenomination of the rouble, touch off new waves of
"dollarisation", Yasin said. The population is still mistrusting
the government. A turnabout in this situation can be reached
only by "pushing through the waves of the financial crisis" and
by attracting investments in the Russian economy, Yevgeni Yasin
said. 

*********