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Johnson's Russia List
 

 

December 12, 1997  
This Date's Issues: 1427  1428 

Johnson's Russia List
#1428
12 December 1997
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. RFE/RL: Floriana Fossato, Russia: The Amount Of Change Has 
Been Extraordinary. (Interview with US Ambassador James Collins).

2. AP: Kremlin Says Yeltsin Feeling OK.
3. Gunnar Hólmsteinn Ársælsson: You're fired!
4. Interfax: Most Duma Leaders Favor Constitutional Amendments.
5. The Guardian: Tom Whitehouse, Kiev's Dynamo Sees New Goals.
6. MSNBC: Michael Moran, In Russia, 'change' is a relative term.
>From Far East to Urals to Baltic, few share in Moscow's renaissance.

7. The Economist: Oh no, not again. (Yeltsin's health).
8. Argumenty i Fakty: Tatyana Netreba, WHO PLAYS IN THE PRESIDENT'S 
TEAM.

9. RFE/RL NEWSLINE: SELEZNEV SLAMS PRO-PRESIDENTIAL MEDIA BIAS.
10. Jamestown Foundation Monitor: RUSSIAN COMMUNIST LEADER 
DISASSOCIATES HIS PARTY FROM SOVIET VERSION and RUSSIAN DEFENSE 
INDUSTRY: DOWN BUT NOT OUT.] 


*******

#1
Russia: The Amount Of Change Has Been Extraordinary
By Floriana Fossato

Prague, 12 December 1997 (RFE/RL) -- The following is a transcript of the
Moscow interview with new U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation, James
Collins.

Fossato - American cellular engineer Richard Bliss has been released in
Rostov-on-Don. However, charges of espionage against him have not been
dropped. This seems to sound disturbingly like "the good old days." What is
your assessment? 

Collins - The first point to be made is that Mr Bliss was engaged in
normal and very standard activities, working with an American firm under
contract with a Russian firm to install a telecommunication system in
Rostov. As part of that, he was using a modern technology, which is not all
that well known here, and I think the main point to be emphasized is that
there is absolutely no grounds to make charges of espionage. This is an
unfortunate case. I think it is based in part on a conflict between what I
suspect are existing Russian laws and a man who ended up as a victim,
because he was using modern technologies, which those laws never
contemplated. But, he is in the middle, and we hope that authorities will
very quickly conclude this investigation and he will be able to return home. 

Fossato - Do you think that the government in such a case has shown enough
oversight of the security organs? The government has enough control on them? 

Collins - The fact is that local jurisdictions these days in this country
have a great deal of authority. And in that sense there may be problems of
coordination. That's quite possible. But, I would not want this to be seen
as the first and only case in which foreign citizens, including Americans,
have trouble with law enforcement officials here. It is not. This has been
going on for the last several years under the new government, and in the
post-Soviet period. There are certainly cases where the Russian authorities
have legitimate reasons to work on given cases. Indeed, we are cooperating
with them on many cases - on law enforcement cases. However, there are
cases, like this one, in which there is a mistake. And one hopes we can
reconcile these mistakes very quickly. 

Fossato- Do you think this case will have a bad influence on investors? 

Collins - I think it's not just investors. It is - broadly speaking - the
climate for business. And I do believe there is a chance this can have a
very negative affect on the investment-and-business climate. Business
people cannot feel confident that they can do normal commercial work, (and)
have understandable and clear rules that govern it and fair treatment by
the authorities. 

Fossato- There have been recently other cases of American businesses
feeling the treatment they receive by their Russian partners has not been
fair. Do you think the government has enough influence on Russian companies
to address these issues? 

Collins - There is certainly no question that there remains a great deal
of work to be done to develop the legal-and-economic infrastructure to make
the business climate here attractive to foreign business and for foreign
investors. I think we all understand there is a need for greater
consistency and regularity in the legal framework and in the legal
processes by which disputes are settled. Everyone is well aware that a new
tax system, a new tax code is needed. If one is talking specifically about
the energy industry, certainly our energy companies are looking to the
passage of what is called production-sharing-agreement legislation, and
decisions to create the kind of predictability that investors really
require and which will make Russia competitive. 

Fossato - Do you think there has been improvement since your last posting
here? (eds: Until 1993, Collins was Deputy Chief of Mission at the Moscow
Embassy. He then was the State Department's top official for relations with
the Newly Independent States of the former USSR). 

Collins - I think there has been immense improvement. Russia does have a
substantial body of new laws and things like a civil code that have gone a
long way to laying the foundations for a market economy and a sound civil
society. There is now a "geometrically" greater transparency in what is
going on from what existed several years ago, when simple, basic, economic
information was considered secret. These things are a fact of life. And, of
course, there is now a real private economy. This is certainly a very
different political and economic structure from what there was here when I
last left in 1993. 

Fossato - Would you say that this improvement has been rapid? 

Collins - I think it has been extremely rapid. Americans, of course, are
never satisfied. But, I think the amount of change has been extraordinary.
What we encourage, however, is that it keeps going, and that people don't
stop or pull back. The fact of the matter is that Russia will take its
rightful place within the economies of the industrialized democracies, when
it will get the reform process far enough along that you begin to have
Russia truly competitive for capital and in the world market. 

Fossato - Do you think the stock market crisis is over in Russia, or is
going to be over soon? 

Collins - I think Russia, first of all, belongs, in the sense of the
global economy, to what in the financial world is generally called emerging
markets. Russia is not immune any longer to many of the forces that work on
emerging markets. I think what has been particularly important in the last
few weeks are two new realities. One is that Russia, as, now a member of
the global economic system, found that it can be affected by decisions or
problems in very distant places. They didn't think this would have so much
of an influence, on the Russian economy. And yet, they found that this can
have a particularly acute influence at times. 

The second point, which I think is particularly important, is that the
government here and its financial leaders are getting quite high marks for
managing the Russian economy during the global crisis. 

Organizations such as the Finance Ministry, the Central Bank and those who
have responsibility for managing stability of the ruble, etcetera, have, in
fact, managed their way though a potentially very dangerous crisis, and
come out of it with a reasonably stable ruble, an economy which has not
collapsed or gone into crisis, and, which is not looking at decisions with
some new experience. It is my sense that they have received quite high
marks for the way they managed it. There are some serious problems. The
problems of tax collection are acute, the budget has been passed, but
unless there is some restructuring of the basic business of income and
expenditures in some directions, there is going to be a substantial
deficit. The realities here are that there is a need for effective tax
collection - an effective tax code. All of that is part of stabilizing the
situation even further. Those things have yet to be addressed. 

Fossato - What is the indication you have from US investors? 

Collins - In the last period, investment money has either stayed in Russia
or is coming back, if it had gone. Maybe not all of that left - but a
substantial part. American investment remains the biggest in Russia of all
the foreign investment. Our total investment at this point is around $5
billion. It is about 25 percent of the total foreign investment in Russia.
I am not satisfied that this is as large as it should be. It is not, but we
are going to continue to work on it. 

Fossato - And what is the advice you give American investors? 

Collins - This is an economy still in transition. It is an emerging market
which is not unique, as it shares characteristics of many other economies.
And it is certainly not immune from the laws of economics. The reality here
is that there is a difficult investment climate. Russia is not attracting
investment up to its potential. To correct, or change this situation I
think it is clear Russia itself has very important decisions to make, as I
said, the creation of a legal, economic and political infrastructure that
it needs to be more competitive as a place for investment. The point I
think I would make here is that Russian citizens really need to understand
that they are in a world that competes for capital and for investment. And
people with capital, on any given day, look at opportunities and options on
where to put their money. And they make the decisions on economic grounds.
Where will they have a safe, profitable, predictable rate of return that is
at least as great, if not greater than other opportunities. I have told a
number of my Russian colleagues that Russia will know it 'got it right,'
because money will flow. 

Fossato - How would you assess bilateral relations between the U.S. and
Russia? Would you call it a partnership? 

Collins - I think the United States and Russia are two great nations with
particular responsibilities for the security and the development of the
global economic and security system of this coming century. I believe that
today the fundamentals of our relations, if you look at the interests of
two great nations, who are nuclear superpowers and major economies, are
basically sound. It is perfectly normal, as the U.S. does with all its
partners or other states -allies, whatever - to have disagreements, as well
as confluence of positions. What is important today is that, unlike the
past of this century, where for 75 years Moscow and Washington were divided
by a fundamental ideological confrontation, that is no longer the case.
Today, we basically deal with our national interests and our shared
responsibilities and our opportunities in what I would say is a normal way
for nations. 

Fossato - But on several issues, like the development of energy resources
in the Caspian region, problems in the Caucasus and Iran, for instance,
Russian and American views seems to be still rather distant. 

Collins - About the Caspian and the development of the energy resources,
the United States and Russia, along with the other Caucasus states and
Kazakhstan, share a basic interest in the development of those resources.
We think this is a basically an area where you can have a great deal of
benefit for all who can be involved in it. And, I believe, there are many
in Russia who see that way as well. Many Russian oil companies are involved
in consortia for the developing of these resources. We have many Russian
jobs that today exist because those resources are being developed, such as
people who are building oil rigs or providing transport. In short, it seems
to me that the development of the Caspian basin is in the interest of our
political interests, because it will create greater stability and long-term
strategic cooperation. It is in the interests of our economies. We want to
see the resources of that basin put on world markets. It is an immense
resource for the world's economic development and, therefore, we want to
see it emerge. We think those are interests that, in fact, are shared with
Russia - and are not against Russia. There are those, I think, who continue
to see things in the world in negative terms. I believe this is an outdated
way of looking at the world, if it ever was a good way of looking at the
world. It is simply not the way in which economic activity, and, in some
sense I would argue, even security issues are probably going to be
effectively affected in the future. I would argue that we share basically a
fundamentally coincidental or concurrent strategic interest in this area.
And that is to see the region to the South of Russia develop in a way that
makes it a stable, open, democratic region. 

Fossato - Do you feel political circles in Russia, not only the business
ones you mentioned, share your view? 

Collins - I find different views in this city on this subject. As I said,
when you look at even many of the most contentious issues, such as Iran at
the moment, our Presidents have agreed that there isn't any strategic
difference between us about the interests we both have in preventing Iran
from developing weapons of mass destruction, or getting the technology to
deliver them. In a way, that would threaten not just Iran's neighbors in
the Gulf, but potentially also the Russian Federation or other neighbors.
To the extent we have disagreements. They tend to focus frequently on
tactics or how to proceed. Or, we can have a difference of perception about
how urgent a matter is. We, of course, pursue our views vigorously, and we
work with our Russian colleagues to try to develop a common approach that
is going to be effective. I think those issues are inevitably out there. We
will always have certain disagreements and certain differences of views.
But, again, I would come back to the basic point that what we do now is sit
down and talk about them. To a very great extent, I think we have been
quite successful at finding ways to manage our issues. 

Fossato - Some say that on issues, such as the ratification of the START
Two agreement that has been deferred by the State Duma, a Summit of the
Presidents may be in the air. What do you think about this issue? 

Collins - We hope to see, first of all, the Duma ratifying the START Two
agreement as soon as possible. The Presidents already had a Summit in some
sense (eds: the Helsinki Summit) on this issue, and they came to a number
of agreements that guided negotiations over this last Summer, that
culminated in agreements that were signed in New York in September. Those
negotiations addressed a number of issues which had been raised by members
of the Duma. At this point, we believe the next step is ratification. We
believe that we and the Russian government have addressed the issues that
were raised, and, frankly, the next Summit we hope to see is a Summit that
will focus on a broader agenda for the coming century, and, within that, on
the security issues associated with what we do after START Two - not to
have another discussion of START Two. 

Fossato - In the West and in Russia, there is a growing perception that
Western diplomats, including those from the U.S., tend to have an
over-simplified approach toward Russia and its leaders. That diplomats tend
to identify the "good guys and the bad guys," and to deal just with those
that seemingly speak a Western 'language.' 

Collins - I have a saying that I use occasionally, which is: "Saying does
not make something true." I happen to believe that it is very important
that our government and our officials engage very broadly with the people
in this country and in the society, who are shaping it and making the
decisions for the future, and I believe we do that. And, I am very
impressed each week that I see, for instance, a list of visits to Russian
regions that takes up about a page. It is dozens of people from our
mission, who, in one way or another, are involved with local and regional
government. I believe members of the staff of this mission essentially are
in contact with every major political player and party and organization in
Moscow. 

In short, I think the charge that is frequently made - and I agree with
you that we continually hear we are not talking to the right people - but,
that usually means that we don't agree with them. The fact is that we do
talk with almost every element of the spectrum of opinion here. I think we
are listening. I think we do understand the complexity of what is going on
here. But, I would also say that there are times when citing complexities
is simply a means to suggest that people are unable to take action. I think
there are very complex conditions in this country, but there are also some
truths that are important. It is that the government and the society are
faced with rather basic choices that they have to make, such as will they
have a tax code, will they develop a new set of legal institutions to the
extent they need them ? Those are very complex undertakings, but the
objectives are not that complicated. 

********

#2
Kremlin Says Yeltsin Feeling OK 
December 12, 1997 

MOSCOW (AP) ...

******

#3
Date: Thu, 11 Dec 1997 
From: "Maria.Gunnbjornsdottir@LungMed.uu.se"
<maria.gunnbjornsdottir@lungmed.uu.se>
Subject: You're fired!

Hi, all JRL recipients.
I am currently writing a piece on Russia and I want to know how many
officials; ministers etc., Boris Yeltsin has fired(he's good on this) since
he became President of Russia.Does anyone know? Is there a www-source on
this or an article that you know of? Any information is good information.
Merry Christmas!
Með kveðju/M.v.h./Yours

Gunnar Hólmsteinn Ársælsson 
Stenhagsvägen 154 
752-60 Uppsala 
SVÍÞJÓР
tel.0046-18-468268 

*******

#4
Most Duma Leaders Favor Constitutional Amendments

MOSCOW, Dec 12 (Interfax) - Russian Communist party leader *Gennady
Zyuganov* called the acting Russian constitution "ineffective and dying" in
an interview with Interfax in view of constitution day marked Friday. 
"The constitution does not guarantee the main thing - a balance of
powers or control over the executive branch of power," he said. 
"The well-known phrase that uncontrolled power is the plague for society
is fully confirmed today," Zyuganov said. 
He said the Duma must pass as soon as possible a bill on constitutional
amendments because the fundamental law "does not guarantee in practice a
single right it declares, such as the right to life, employment etc." 
Zyuganov accounted the drawbacks of the constitution "to the haste with
which it was approved by a referendum after the dissolution and shooting of
the parliament in 1993." In his opinion, the constitution should not be
approved by public vote in general. "Tell me what should a voter do, if he
agrees with all provisions, except one or two," Zyuganov wondered. 
"President (Boris Yeltsin) recently remarked that our people our not
ripe for the revision of the constitution. However, in my opinion they are
ripe and overripe," he said. 
Meanwhile, Duma speaker Gennady Seleznyov regards constitution day as a
historical fact. "It just so happened that on that day we approved an
improperly written constitution," he told a Thursday briefing. 
Liberal Democratic leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky told Interfax that the
acting constitution requires significant improvements, primarily on the
formation of the Cabinet by the president on the basis of a stable
parliamentary majority. 
"Only then the president, government and parliament will start working
together as a single team," he said. According to Zhirinovsky, only this
can restore a normal situation in the country. 
He also favored a constitutional amendment changing the administrative
order of the country. 
Alexander Shokhin, the leader of Our Home is Russia faction, did not
rule out the possibility of amendments. However, he warned against the
hasty approval of proposals on which the left-wing opposition insists such
as the formation of a majority government. 
"Even today our constitution implies certain patterns of political
control over government actions," he stressed. 
Under the constitution, Shokhin said, the prime minister shall be
appointed by the president only with the consent of the Duma which also has
the right to regularly require Cabinet reports and to bring a vote of no
confidence in the government. 
In his opinion, a change of a key constitutional provision on the
process of Cabinet formation should not be made before 2003-2004, i.e.
before the change of the current generation of politicians. 
"Such amendments of the constitution should by no means be made
earlier," because there are no serious reasons for them in the country
today, Shokhin said. 
Yabloko faction leader Grigory Yavlinsky also believes the constitution
requires a number of changes. 
He told the press the changes should guarantee a steadier balance of
powers. Primarily this is necessary to rule out decisions similar to the
ones that led to the hostilities in Chechnya, he said. 
"We believe that the constitution should distribute the roles and duties
more precisely and it would be very good, if the president agreed that
amendments are necessary," Yavlinsky said. 
Besides, Yabloko favors amendments increasing the role of the judicial
branch of power. Yavlinsky wants Yeltsin to assume a more constructive
attitude to the matter in the understanding that the changes will not
affect him personally. Yavlinsky said such amendments would be very
important for the next president and for this reason "a safer balance of
powers should be put down on paper." 

********

#5
Date: Fri, 12 Dec 1997 19:31:10 +0300 (WSU)
From: tom whitehouse <tomw@glasnet.ru>
Subject: Dynamo Kiev 

The Guardian 11/12/97 (UK) - Kiev's Dynamo Sees New Goals
Tom Whitehouse in Kiev 
Hryhory Surkis, president of Dynamo Kiev Football Club - who lost to
Newcastle in the European Champions'League last night - is extending the
borders of sports merchandising and corporate entertainment. Instead of
selling videos, shirts and posters he deals in grain, oil, gas and
allegedly, weapons.
The politicians he allows into the directors' box to bask in the glory of
Dynamo's European success return the favour with a tax concession here and a
valuable import-export opportunity there. With parliamentary elections next
March, they have everything to play for.
"I cannot imagine a government in Ukraine which would not direct the
sympathies of its soul towards Dynamo Kiev and this is the same for today's
government," says Mr Surkis, a 48 year-old scar-faced, sharp suited
businessman. 
"Things have been tough for the Ukrainian people since independence from
the Soviet Union. We are the light at the end of their tunnel and the
government understands this."
Mr Surkis is one of the first businessman in the former Soviet Bloc to see
the PR value of investing in sport. "The popularity he has won through
Dynamo gives him cover for his semi-legal business operations," says a Kiev
journalist.
With a place for Dynamo in the quarter finals of the Champions' Cup
guaranteed, Mr Surkis has been quick take political advantage. To
consolidate his business success he has joined the opposition Social
Democrats and is widely expected to stand for election as mayor of Kiev - a
post which would help protect him from legal scrutiny.
"The success we've had at Dynamo shows that Ukraine can win success in
other spheres," he says.
His record at Dynamo speaks for itself and will be highly persuasive in
the city election next year. The murky but profitable business strategy he
adopted since taking over the near-bankrupt club in 1993 means the club can
afford to reject million pound offers for its brightest stars from the likes
of AC Milan and Manchester United.
In contrast to comparable clubs in eastern Europe, Dynamo do not expect -
nor do they need - to sell any players before the end of their European
campaign.
While the rest of the economy shrank by ten per cent last year, Dynamo
expanded, building new sports complexes and apartment blocs for players and
staff, and renovating its stadia and junior football school. 
The old clichÊ - "football is not a matter of life and death, it's more
important than that" - has a macabre meaning in the former Soviet Union,
where club officials who refuse to play ball with organised crime regularly
get dropped. The president of Shakhtar Donetsk - a mid-table Ukrainian
club - was killed by a bomb two years ago. This summer the
director-general of Spartak Moscow was shot in the head.
But Mr Surkis plays a tight defence and has maintained Dynamo's Soviet era
links with Ukraine's Interior Ministry, which provides his personal armed
guards. It only adds to his popular reputation as a can-do businessman who
wants to restore law and order. As in Russia, economic reform has brought
crime and poverty to the majority of Ukrainians who are now dangerously
vulnerable to populist solutions. 
A mayor who would probably be as reluctant to sell businesses to
foreigners as he is to sell them footballers, would not go down well with
Ukraine's main financial supporter, the United States government.
Privatisation has bogged down in parliament and the last thing Washington
wants is more economic nationalism.
"I don't know how he gets his money and I don't care," says a 19
year-old Dynamo supporter selling bananas on the streets of Kiev. "Look
what he's done for our football - that's the most important thing."

********

#6
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com
In Russia, 'change' is a relative term
>From Far East to Urals to Baltic, few share in Moscow's renaissance 
By Michael Moran
MSNBC

********

#7
The Economist
13 December 1997
[for personal use only]
EUROPE 
Russia 
Oh no, not again 


******

#8
>From RIA Novosti
Argumenty i Fakty, No. 49
December 1997
WHO PLAYS IN THE PRESIDENT'S TEAM
By Tatyana NETREBA


********

#9
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 1, No. 178, Part I, 12 December 1997

SELEZNEV SLAMS PRO-PRESIDENTIAL MEDIA BIAS.
Duma Speaker Gennadii Seleznev charged that the Russian
media "serves only one power: presidential power," ITAR-TASS
reported on 10 December. Speaking during an official visit to
Paris, Seleznev claimed that Russian newspapers and electronic
media often send journalists to Duma press conferences but
then publicize either distorted information or no information at
all. However, he said he is pleased with the first few editions of
"Parlamentskii chas," a program on state-run Russian
Television, adding that the parliament is receiving some air
time on state-run Radio Rossii and Radio Mayak. Seleznev also
said the Duma and the Federation Council will launch a
newspaper in January and have already begun publishing a
magazine. In October, the government persuaded the Duma not
to hold a no-confidence vote, in part by promising to give
parliamentary activities more air time in state-controlled
media. LB

********

#10
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
December 12, 1997
Volume: 3 Issue: 232

RUSSIAN COMMUNIST LEADER DISASSOCIATES HIS PARTY FROM SOVIET VERSION.

Russian Communist Party (CPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov raised eyebrows this
week when he told a meeting of Cossack atamans that the Communist Party of
the Soviet Union (CPSU) had never been a true political party. The CPRF
regards itself as the successor of the CPSU, while the Cossacks view
themselves as one of the many groups of Soviet society persecuted under
Communist rule. "The CPSU," Zyuganov told them, "was not a real party. It
was a state and a political structure that was in charge of everything and
everyone." The party he heads, Zyuganov went on, is fundamentally different.
"We support all forms of property and economic organization. No matter who
tells you that somebody will come and take it [property] away, no-one will
take anything away." (NTV, December 8)

RUSSIAN DEFENSE INDUSTRY: DOWN BUT NOT OUT. After seven years of steep
decline, Russian defense plants have regrouped and are now poised to seek
new markets for their products, civil and military. This was the main
conclusion of a talk by Julian Cooper, a professor at England's Birmingham
University, at Harvard on December 10.

Russia's defense spending has fallen to about one-third of its 1990 level,
and total employment in defense plants shrank from eight million in 1990 to
2.3 million in 1997. Output in the sector fell to 19 percent of the 1991
level, with military products dropping to nine percent of the old level and
civilian production to 27 percent. Thus, for example, from 1990 to 1996 the
annual production of main battle tanks fell from 1,600 to five, that of
armored infantry vehicles from 3,400 to 250, ICBMs from 115 to ten, and
submarines from 12 to two. This production data does not include the atomic
energy ministry, which, in contrast, has seen production actually increase.

By defense industry is meant those plants that used to be under the
jurisdiction of the Soviet "military industrial complex" (VPK). Although
this term is used by Russian officials, Cooper finds the expression
misleading, since the defense sector was not a unified complex but was split
into rival ministries and into competing firms within the ministries. Unity
was provided only through tight vertical controls, with ministries and firms
answering to the Communist Party and not to industrial planners. Most of
this power had been concentrated in the hands of the former Soviet defense
minister, Dmitry Ustinov, who had personally overseen the doubling of the
defense sector during the Brezhnev era. Gorbachev's reforms (initiated after
Ustinov's death) and the subsequent Soviet collapse shattered these vertical
controls, leaving defense plants at the mercy of budget cuts and the raw
winds of the market economy. Over the past seven years defense plants have
been struggling to build new horizontal links from scratch. 

The Russian Committee on Defense Industry, formed in 1991, was later
upgraded to a state committee and then, in 1996, to a ministry. But in the
spring of 1997, it was folded into the Ministry of Economy, where 600 of the
ministry's 2,600 staff supervise the defense industry. Just over half (990)
of the country's 1,700 defense plants have been privatized, but in practice
even the plants that are nominally state-owned are left to their own
devices. Efforts to create new conglomerates from above (such as the MiG and
Sukhoi holding companies created in 1996) have largely failed because of
rivalries between individual plants and design bureaus. Now some plants are
cautiously trying to create financial-industrial groups from below.

Given the cutbacks in defense procurement, the future for many plants lies
in boosting exports, military or civilian. Military exports reached $3.5
billion last year and civilian exports $730 million (not counting $2 billion
in uranium and atomic technology). Exports are heavily concentrated in a few
sectors, such as aviation and armaments, and only about 30 plants are
serious exporters. Cooper expects further cuts in the 600,000 workforce in
the aviation sector, which has been slower to downsize than the others (such
as radio electronics or communications).

********






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